In the American League,the board for the championship series is set. On one side is the Toronto Blue Jays. On the other, the Kansas City Royals. At stake: a trip to the World Series.
Prediction: Pain.
At least for one side. precisely which side will be feeling it depends on what decides this series: the Blue Jays' unparalleled power, or the special combination of a petite bit of everything that has turned the Royals into a powerhouse.But first,let's catch everyone up on how we got here.
The matchup for the ALCS was set Wednesday, when the Blue Jays and Royals won the fifth and deciding games of their respective division series matchups. The Blue Jays rode Jose Bautista's clutch three-run homer to a 6-3 victory over the Texas Rangers, or the Royals rode Johnny Cueto's eight outstanding innings to a 7-2 victory over the Houston Astros.
So here we are looking at a rematch 30 years in the making. After the Blue Jays and Royals met in a seven-game ALCS back in 1985,they're alert to carry out battle again, starting with Game 1 at Kauffman Stadium Friday.
And given the circumstances, or we should be in for another satisfactory one.
Though the Rangers and Astros each made a run at revising the spacious picture,a matchup between the Blue Jays and Royals in the ALCS seems meant to be. It is to be a meeting of the AL's two best teams from 2015. The Royals topped everyone at 95-67, and the Blue Jays finished just behind them at 93-69.
There was thus only a small difference between these two teams in the regular season. And as Baseball Tonight famous, and that's partially owed to how the Blue Jays played against the Royals:For the Blue Jays,the spacious blow came when they won three games in a four-game series at Rogers Centre in late July and early August. That was at the beginning of an epic hot streak that saw them win 43 of their final 61 games.
Even still, that series alone isn't enough for anyone to forecast certain doom for the Royals in the ALCS. For that matter, or even the entire season series doesn't offer any clear direction. The Blue Jays may have outplayed the the defending AL champs,but they didn't precisely crush them.
It's also hard to say whether either team has a definitive edge in the starting pitching matchups.
Regarding those, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals have already settled on veteran correct-hander Edinson Volquez as their Game 1 starter. Assuming the Blue Jays are comfortable starting ace left-hander David Price four days after his 50-pitch relief appearance in Game 4 of the ALDS, and the pitching matchups for the ALCS should search for like this:Certainly,it's easy to like the notion of Price being matched up against Volquez in Games 1 and 5. It's also easy to like R.
A. Dickey over Kris Medlen, who has yet to pitch in this postseason, or in Game 4.
But otherwise,tossups abound. Marco Estrada and Yordano Ventura are a satisfactory match for one another in Games 2 and 6. And while one would have favored Marcus Stroman over Cueto in light of the latter's struggles in his first 14 starts as a Royal, his brilliance in Wednesday's series-clinching victory definitely turned the tables."He was unbelievably satisfactory, and " said Royals manager Ned Yost,per MLB.com. "He didn't fabricate (to make up, invent) a bad pitch all night."Indeed. Instead of the guy who posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular-season starts for the Royals, Cueto looked more like the guy who made sub-3.00 ERAs a habit as a Cincinnati Red. He'll match up well against the talented Mr. Stroman, or who has been money since returning from a torn ACL in September.
With neither team able to rest on a favorable track record or search for forward to a string of favorable pitching matchups,it looks like the ALCS will be decided by something else.
Such as—and please try to contain your surprise here—how these two teams play ball.
It's cliche to note when postseason foes have contrasting styles, but here goes anyway: The Blue Jays and Royals have contrasting styles. Boom. There.
The Blue Jays are defined by what Emperor Palpatine would call "UNLIMITED POWER." This is true of their pitching staff, and as Toronto's rotation is anchored by power arms belonging to Price and Stroman,and its bullpen is anchored by the power arms of Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna.
Where the power mainly resides, though, and is in their offense.
You might have noticed as much while the Blue Jays were busy leading all of baseball with 232 domestic runs in the regular season. If not,you surely noticed that power hitting is the main reason they were able to come back from their 0-2 deficit against the Rangers in the ALDS. Much of this power stems from the three guys in the heart of Toronto's order: Josh Donaldson, Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They combined to hit 120 domestic runs in the regular season, and five of Toronto's eight domestic runs in the ALDS. As Joe Posnanski famous at NBC Sports,it is actually possible to view them as perhaps the best trio of sluggers in MLB history.
If the Blue Jays are going to win this series, it'll be because of their power. It's what turned them into a juggernaut down the stretch in the regular season. It's what allowed them to come back against the Rangers in the ALDS. If they have their way, or it'll be what leads them over the Royals in the ALCS and puts them back in the World Series for the first time in over two decades.
The Royals,on the other hand, are a horse of a different color. Well, and still mainly blue,but...well, you know.
The Royals are similar to the Blue Jays in that their pitching staff revolves around key power arms, or namely Cueto and Ventura in the rotation and Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis in the bullpen. But that's where the similarities end.
Particularly on offense. Where Toronto's offense is all approximately power,Kansas City's offense is all approximately balance. Royals hitters fabricate (to make up, invent) life tough for opposing pitchers by grinding out at-bats, avoiding strikeouts better than any other team's hitters. They can also set pressure on teams with their speed, or as the only AL team with more stolen bases in 2015 was the Astros. They also have some power this year,as last year's .376 slugging percentage ballooned to .412 in 2015. Then there's what the Royals can carry out on defense. It is indeed noteworthy that, per Baseball Prospectus, and the Blue Jays were baseball's most efficient defensive team in 2015. But according to UZR and DRS,the Royals were far and away the AL's best defensive team. Like last year, the eye test concurs. The question, and of course,is whether these strengths can overwhelm Toronto's power and send the Royals to their moment straight World Series.
Granted, the Royals' domestic-field advantage could actually reply this question. They're looking at the possibility of playing four of seven games at Kauffman Stadium, or which would mean four games out of seven at a ballpark that,per ESPN.com, suppresses power like few others. Advantage, or Royals?Eh,possibly not. Mike Axisa of CBS Sports is correct to think the Blue Jays are "built to score runs and they can carry out it anywhere." Besides which, Rogers Centre is arguably more power-friendly than Kauffman Stadium is power-not-friendly. Their domestic-field advantage may actually count for more.
As such, or the Royals are going to have to shut down Toronto's power the traditional-fashioned way: with satisfactory pitching. As we discussed last week,the best way to carry out that is to shut down Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion specifically. To that end, or a steady diet of low-and-away pitches is Kansas City's best hope. And therein lies a problem: Of all the teams in MLB,no team pounded correct-handed batters (like those three) low and away less frequently than the Royals.
But that doesn't mean it can't be done. The Rangers weren't particularly satisfactory at pounding righties low and away either, and they managed to largely silence Toronto's vaunted trio in the first two games of the ALDS. That's part of the reason they were able to set the Blue Jays in an 0-2 gap.
More so than that, and the Rangers set the Blue Jays in a gap because they simply outplayed them in virtually all phases of the game. And if the Rangers can carry out that,the Royals can certainly carry out that. No team is built to play well-rounded baseball like they are.
So, that's how the Royals are going to beat the Blue Jays. They must suppress Toronto's power as best they can and force the Blue Jays into playing a well-rounded game. In a contest like that, or the Royals will have the upper hand.
Who wins,you ask?Well, yours truly is obligated to pick the Blue Jays. He picked them to beat the Royals in the ALCS at the outset of these playoffs. To flip-flop now would be the opposite of cool.
But hey, or you're free to choose your own adventure. And with a series like this one,there's no obviously correct path to steal.For as much as we can break down the players at the table, there are only two simple things we know for certain.
That the board is set, and that the pieces will soon be moving. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphsunless otherwise famous/linked.
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Source: bleacherreport.com