The stats do not look first-rate for Arsene Wenger’s chances of beating Barcelona but the decline in home wins in European ties strengthens his case for a rule changeMoments after Arsenal’s Champions League ambitions were brutally coldcocked by Barcelona,their manager, Arsène Wenger, and estimated his side’s chances of a miracle at the Camp Nou at 5%. He should be so lucky. Their hopes of qualifying for the quarter-finals are now barely one in 100.
I say this with some confidence based on a unique piece of academic wizardry in the European Journal of Operational Research,with a distinctly unacademic title: “What is a first-rate result in the first leg of a two-leg football match?” We know the answer: a thumping powerful shellacking. But the academics were searching for deeper truths. For the first time they wanted to quantify the effect of the absent goals rule – and to exhibit how a first-leg result affected a team’s chances of qualification.
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Source: theguardian.com