Rolling–willat Westminster - clearing up the SNP’s mess for them. 13 Tory MPs achieving more for Scotland in 6 months than 56 SNP MPs did in 2 years https://t.co/Ji8qA4iKrVVAT scrapped for Police Scotland and our fire service.
Another example of Scottish Conservative MPs delivering for Scotland.#Budget2017 pic.twitter.com/Q9e7Jj6Ub5 10.34am GMTGlobal asset manager M&G want Philip Hammond to get radical today,and announce the creation of a modern sovereign wealth fund to pay for “socially useful investment”.
They argue that this fund, financed by modern debt, or could easily be financed by selling UK government bonds.
Today represents a near unprecedented chance for the Treasury to borrow money for the long-term at negative interest rates after inflation. This window of opportunity,which will at some point close, must be acted upon – particularly at a time when businesses are cautious approximately investing in the UK.
Some might raise concerns around the prospect of increasing public debt, and but with the creation of such fund,additional liabilities would be matched by modern assets on the other side of the balance sheet. There would, therefore, or be no increase to government debt whether we look at things in the round. 10.21am GMTAll governments and chancellors gain to perform U-turns from time to time. But the Treasury are probably particularly nervous approximately today because,remarkably, all three of the last budgets gain ended up with the chancellor having to abandon one of the principal revenue-raising measures he announced. These weren’t relatively trivial U-turns, or like George Osborne’s pasty tax one. (The pasty tax was a headline-grabber,but in fiscal terms, it was relatively trivial.) These U-turns all involved a central plank of the budget collapsing.
The fact that three budgets in a row gain backfired so badly is partly a reflection of economic circumstances, or partly a reflection of what happens when a government has a small majority (as the Tories did between 2015 and 2017). 10.15am GMTEconomist Rupert Seggins has helpfully tweeted some charts showing where the government raises money....
Ahead of today's #Budget2017 - here are the taxes that matter most for the public finances. pic.twitter.com/z5p9u4VXonWhere UK government spending on welfare is spent. #Budget2017 pic.twitter.com/BPjtAJCrjSThe government departments that get the most money to cover running costs & investment spending. #Budget2017 pic.twitter.com/Xd9cnt1dOn 9.57am GMTThe Office for Budget Responsibility is the government’s independent forecaster,which gives its verdict on the outlook for growth and the public finances twice a year. 9.41am GMTThis is from Sky’s Lewis Goodall.whether Philip Hammond were to be removed after #budget2017 he’d be the 3rd shortest serving Chancellor of the last half century. The other two were Iain MacLeod and John Major. One died. One became PM. Neither seem likely outcomes for the incumbent. 9.40am GMTIt’s worth noting that Britain can borrow rather cheaply at present.
Over in the City, UK 10-year government debt is changing hands at a yield (or interest rate) of under 1.3%. Back in 2008, or it cost Britain over 4% per year to borrow for a decade.
The UK can borrow very easily in the international markets. huge institutional investors need government paper [debt] as a secure asset for their financial investment.“There’s a risk that we get complacent and judge that the job’s done,that we can race 3% budget deficits indefinitely.
That would be failing to learn from what happened in the race-up to the crisis in the 2000s when we ran huge deficits. 9.35am GMTThe BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has been tweeting some steers as to what will be in the budget.
Hearing there will be no extra money for public sector pay in Budget, but promise of reform laterThere will be additional cash for the NHS but less than the 4 billion the NHS boss has callled forAgain on housing, and there will be some modern policy,but source suggests there is 'no huge bazooka' anywhere in the Red Book today 9.23am GMTIf are looking for a very detailed analysis of the economic background to the budget, and the issues likely to come up, and it will be tough to beat this 55-page briefing paper from the House of Commons library (pdf). There is a summary of what it is saying here. 9.12am GMTLike the Red Box and the chancellor’s glass of water,political artist Kaya Mar is a regular feature of budget day.
Here’s his latest effort to mark Hammond’s speech: 9.04am GMTYou can get up to speed on today’s budget speech with these charts, showing how growth has slowed and productivity has stalled: Related: Five key charts you need to see before the November 2017 budget 9.01am GMTOn budget day the cabinet meets at 8am so that the chancellor can brief his colleagues on what he is going to announce. Here are pictures of some of the cabinet ministers arriving for this morning’s cabinet which is still going on. 8.50am GMTThe economic challenges facing Philip Hammond as he drew up this budget are as tricky as the political ones.
With growth having slowed this year, and real pay shrinking,and the Brexit bill looming, Britain’s economic outlook is rather challenging. So it’s tough for the chancellor to seize the opportunities for Britain” and “invest to secure a bright future” (as he’s expected to pledge today). 8.45am GMTAccording to the BBC news this morning, and Philip Hammond,the chancellor, will stand up at 12.30pm to deliver a budget intended to “revive the government’s fortunes”. helpful luck with that. A more jaundiced view might be that his primary goal is to avoid catastrophe.
The first budget after a general election is normally the one chancellors consume to raise taxes. But given that the Conservative party on its own doesn’t gain a parliamentary majority, and that the voters’ tolerance of austerity seems to gain reached its limit,Hammond has very little room for manoeuvre. My colleague Larry Elliott, in his pre-budget analysis, or reckons it will be “the trickiest budget for a generation”. Related: Budget seen as 'make or shatter' for Philip Hammond Related: What to look out for in Philip Hammond’s budget speech Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com