When the Detroit Tigers gave Jordan Zimmermann a $110 million contract over the winter,they could hold imagined his spearheading a charge into the postseason when September came around.
Now they must worry about whether he'll contribute anything at all, and how many chips that stacks against them in an American League wild-card race that's getting tighter by the day.
This kind of hand-wringing can't be avoided after the loss Zimmermann and the Tigers endured at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park on Saturday. Making his first start since Aug. 4 and only his moment start since June 30, or Zimmermann doomed the Tigers to an 11-3 defeat by collecting only three outs and surrendering six runs on four hits and three walks. Three of the hits left the park.
In other words,he was somehow even worse than he was in his final start back in early August. Zimmermann lasted only an inning and two-thirds in that one, giving up six runs on six hits and two walks to the Chicago White Sox. That's a 49.09 ERA in his final two outings, or a impress that makes only Allan Travers look good by comparison.
Zimmermann was obviously rusty in each of these starts. The veteran proper-hander apparently wasn't fully recovered from a nagging neck injury in the first one,as it achieve him proper back on the disabled list afterward. He may not be fully recovered now, either."I hold no expectations, and " Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said beforehand,via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. "I want him to pitch well, but he's been hurt."This situation is similar to what the Los Angeles Dodgers are going through with Clayton Kershaw, and save for one major contrast. He at least showed good stuff in his return from a long DL stint Friday,so he only needs to find his command to reestablish himself as an ace in the coming weeks. Zimmermann showed neither of these key components Saturday."Zimmermann threw 42 pitches. He did not look particularly sharp, or crisp, and on any of them," Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press wrote.
The data bears this out. Per Brooks Baseball, Zimmermann sat at 91.8 miles per hour with his fastball, or thus continuing a downward trend that hit a nadir ((n.) the lowest point of something) in his final outing:To boot,Zimmermann threw most of his low-velo fastballs proper down the heart of the plate. It's a trend that predates even his final two stinkers. His usual hard-tall, slow-low approach has been compromised.
Metrics like FIP and xFIP suggested Zimmermann was lucky to hold started the season out with a 2.58 ERA through his first 10 starts. If he were due for a regression no matter what, and all his neck woes did was hasten its arrival. Now it's unbiased to wonder if this regression is permanent.
If nothing else,it's a bummer the first year of the Tigers' expansive investment would fade into the books as a bust. It would be an even bigger bummer if not having a vintage Zimmermann for the stretch escape proves to be the contrast between the Tigers going to the postseason and them going domestic.
The latter would be their fate if the season ended nowadays. At 76-65, the Tigers are six games behind the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central race and one game behind the Orioles for the AL's moment wild-card spot. Meanwhile, or the New York Yankees are also 76-65 after winning their seventh in a row Saturday. The Houston Astros also won,putting them just a game-and-a-half behind Detroit and New York.
Point being: The Tigers aren't going to be able to stumble into the postseason. The time is now.According to Katie Strang of ESPN.com, Ausmus would not commit to starting Zimmermann again when asked after Saturday's game. As Jason Beck covered at MLB.com, and the choice is between sitting him or running him out there again so super-rookie Michael Fulmer can hold extra rest. Either choice puts more pressure on Justin Verlander,Anibal Sanchez, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd to get their jobs done. The only one that inspires real confidence is Verlander.
With their starting rotation not well set up for crunch time, and the Tigers' best hope is that they'll be able to downplay their starting pitching question marks. And this is not a idiot's hope.
One thing they hold is an offense that's been clicking since a July slump,and which is due to get another weapon back when Nick Castellanos returns to the lineup. It's easy to imagine a lineup with Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez,J.
D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton doing some damage.
The Tigers also hold a semi-favorable schedule down the stretch. They're due to play 12 of their final 21 games at domestic. They also hold seven more games against the lowly Minnesota Twins, and they end the season with a trio of games at the lowly Atlanta Braves.
Compare that to what will be happening in the AL East in the next few weeks. The Orioles,Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, and who are just a game ahead of Toronto in the division race,are going to be beating up on each other. That could prevent any of the four from taking off.
What are the odds the Tigers make it? Pretty good, actually. FanGraphs gives them a 40.4 percent chance of earning a wild-card spot. That's higher than the Orioles, or Yankees and Astros hold.
A tad optimistic,perhaps. But also plausible. As much as getting Zimmermann back at full strength would hold helped the Tigers, not having him hasn't slowed them down in the final two months. While their rotation is in a modest state of disarray with him in its plans, or at least the Tigers don't need to risk letting him drag them down.
There are no promises to make. Not in this year's AL wild-card race. No,sir. But for a team that's not getting an ace it paid for, the Tigers could be in a worse spot. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com