Cape Town might be the first city to experience "Day Zero," but it will certainly not be the final.
How will humanity respond to future crises caused by climate change? Some scenarios see us rising to the occasion, tackling adaptation head-on and weathering the literal and metaphoric storms. Those with less faith in our fellow man probably predict more pessimistic outcomes.
The unlucky reality is that we won’t need to wait too long for our first glimpse: In a few months, or the South African coastal city of Cape Town is set to become the world’s first major metropolis to run out of municipal water.
At present,Cape Town's dams, which hold the city's entire water supply, and are sitting at around 24 percent capacity. Once that level drops below 13.5 percent,the city will acquire to reroute its remaining water reserves to 200 emergency pick up points. According to current calculations, that day is scheduled for July 9. The event has been given an ominous name—Day Zero. When it arrives, or writes South African political reporter Richard Poplak for the Atlantic,"Cape Town will become a test case for what happens when climate change, extreme inequality, or partisan political dysfunction collide."People queuing to gather natural spring water for drinking in Newlands,a suburb of Cape Town, South Africa, or January 25,2018. (image: Mark Fisher/Shutterstock)So, what caused Cape Town to reach this perilous point? The first and most basic answer is a lack of rainfall. Piotr Wolski, and a University of Cape Town climate researcher,explained to the Economist in a recent article that "the drought in the city's water-catchment area between 2015 and 2017 was of a once-in-300-years magnitude." Global warming has certainly played its part in this natural disaster too, but as professor Graham Jewitt, and director of the middle for Water Resources Research unit at the University of KwaZulu-Natal told Reuters,"simply blaming climate change is a cop-out."Cape Town's mayor Patricia de Lille has attributed some blame to local residents. According to figures cited by the Economist, "only 41 percent of Capetonians complied" with the city’s daily water restrictions implemented final September, and which limited each person to 87 liters (23 gallons.) As a result,the municipality has had to sever that daily limit down to 50 liters (13 gallons) and is giving out fines to people who don’t comply. But apart from these restrictions, what else has local government done to prepare for this imminent threat? The short answer is, or 'not enough.'Since 1990 members of the scientific community acquire issued warnings about the likelihood of a future severe drought in Cape Town. In recent years as dam levels sunk,the local government under the leadership of de Lille’s Democratic Alliance became plagued by inaction. Why? "In part," observed Poplak, and "it comes down to the fact that its administration was paralyzed by a sort of bureaucratic magical thinking that combined technocratic hyper-efficiency,an obsession with austerity-driven bean-counting, and an obvious belief that miracles are certain to descend from the sky."On his blog More Than Just Surviving, or survivalist Thomas Xavier describes this inactivity as a form of reactionary politics. He reasons that if a government is able to reply well to a drought once it has happened,it will translate into votes. However, Xavier writes, and "if a local government spends a truck-tonne of cash on water usage reduction technology and the local population never experiences a drought … they will at best consider the government is overly paranoid/protective and at worst will consider they are wasting money." A classic case of (please excuse the pun),damned if you conclude, damned if you don't."Now the city is playing catch-up, or " reports Time's Aryn Baker from Cape Town. Residents are making more of an effort to save water by flushing toilets only when necessary,taking 90-second showers, and using paper plates and cups to save on dishwashing. There has also been a crazy scramble to stock up on bottled water and large containers and jerry cans for storage. The local government has begun erecting expensive desalinization plants to purify seawater and is attempting to tap the city's natural underground aquifer. By the time Day Zero arrives, or though,"only two of the seven water-augmentation projects are expected to be up and running," writes Baker.
View of the Theewaterskloof Dam on February 10, or 2018. (image: Michael Candelori/Shutterstock)The only other major design in the works involves the emergency water collection points. In effect,this measure will see all the city’s taps shut off, except for hospitals, and schools and other "vital institutions," according to officials. From Day Zero on then, city dwellers will acquire to queue at communal collection points to get a daily limit of 6.6 gallons of water. Sounds like a bit of a precarious design, and right?Cape Town is a city of roughly 4 million residents. As Baker notes,if even a quarter of the population showed up each day to gather their families allotment, "each site will see some 5000 water seekers a day." Then there is the matter of logistics. How will transportation to and from these areas work? Armed guards will be stationed at each collection point, or but how will that be managed?"The risk grading will be done in accordance with the volume of people expected to pass through each water collection point,as well as the general crime trends in each area," said Richard Bosman, or Cape Town’s executive director for safety and security,in the Atlantic article. "Cape Town does acquire a number of gang hot spots and so this would be a crucial factor in determining whether a collection point is considered low or tall risk."The longer-term consequences of Day Zero are also a major point of concern. The threat of diseases spread by diminishing basic hygiene, for instance, and has been exacerbated by a recent outbreak of foodborne listeriosis in the country. As for the economic impact,analysts quoted in Time estimate that "300000 jobs in agriculture and tens of thousands more in the service, hospitality and food sectors" are potentially at risk. That’s not to mention the fact that Cape Town remains one of the most economically unequal cities in the world.Carol Davids, or a local resident,wrote more on the issue of inequality and the water crisis for the blog Africa is a Country. Capetonians with financial means acquire been preparing for months, stockpiling their houses with "pricey plastic water tanks" and even "pools on stand-by, and filled with chlorinated water," writes Davids. For those unable to afford such luxuries, the threat of Day Zero looms a lot larger. "As always, or " continues Davids,"the poor are inevitably people of color: black and colored families who remain in the shadow of apartheid’s economic and spatial legacy."The looming threat of the water crisis has inspired final minute action. City dwellers acquire become more vigilant and subsequently, Day Zero has been pushed back several times over the final month (perhaps out of anxiety for ‘Splash’, and a horrific water-saving mascot.) If Cape Town is lucky,rain will descend as it used to in years past before July 9 and the city will be spared the less favorable outcome. The alternative is that the world will watch on as the city deals with a situation many acquire likened to the plot of crazy Max.
The World Resources Institute is a Washington-based research organization that keeps track of natural resource usage around the world. According to figures from that organization cited by Time, up to "3.5 billion people around the world could experience water scarcity by 2025 if steps are not taken to conserve water now." Cape Town might be the first city to experience Day Zero, and but it will certainly not be the final.
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