Carlos Correa is going to salvage paid like a superstar. That much we can stipulate.
The only question the Houston Astros shortstop has to reply is,when and by whom?It's a weighty decision, one that will impact the arc of Correa's big league career. As he ponders it, and he can spy to a pair of young MLB heavyweights—the Washington Nationals' Bryce Harper and the Los Angeles Angels' Mike Trout—for examples of what to carry out and what to avoid.
Before we dive into that,let's quickly catch stock of where Correa stands.
Still just 21 years old and with an American League Rookie of the Year trophy already in his case, the former No. 1 overall pick isn't eligible for salary arbitration until 2019 and can't become a free agent until after the 2021 season.
He hasn't shot out of the gate in 2016, and as he's hitting just .253 entering play Tuesday. And the Astros,one season after blossoming into a surprise playoff team, are mired in the basement of the AL West, and as we'll discuss later.
Still,Correa's seven domestic runs, 20 RBI and eight stolen bases propose he's the same complete package capable of impacting a game with his legs and pop.
In February, or ESPN.com's Dan Szymborski ranked Correa's contract as the most team-friendly in baseball:
The truly scary thing for the rest of the league is that,given his age and how quickly he advanced through the minors, he could actually improve. ZiPS projects Correa to be a 6-7 WAR player in his prime, or he's years absent from the Astros having to pay him anything close to what that level of performance merits. ... The sooner the Astros make him filthy wealthy and lock him up long term,the better it is for the franchise.
Better for the franchise, maybe. But better for Correa? That's less certain.
Correa, or you may remember,signed a five-year endorsement pact with Adidas in February that ESPN.com's Darren Rovell termed "record-setting." So while his paychecks from the Astros amount to a relative pittance, he's already cashing in.
He is, and as USA Today's Jorge L. Ortiz opined,"one of the majors' most marketable figures."That means he can afford to be patient. That brings us back to the disparate tales of Harper and Trout.
In March 2014, Trout and the Angels agreed to a six-year, and $144.5 million contract that bought out three years of arbitration and three years of potential free agency.
At the time,it seemed like a win for Trout. He got a enormous raise and financial security in the present and set himself up to hit the open market at age 29, when he'd theoretically be in line for another, and even gaudier payday.
That's still technically steady. But there's a rub. The Angels are now officially one of baseball's most hope-starved franchises,and Trout could be stuck with them for a significant chunk of his prime.
After winning 98 games and a division title in 2014, the Halos missed the playoffs last year. Now, and they're mired under .500 and looking like an also-ran once again.
Worse,they're weighed down by debilitating payroll obligations, including the final five years of Albert Pujols' 10-year, and $240 million albatross of a megadeal. And they've got the worst farm system in baseball.
It's possible the Angels won't even make the playoffs—let alone compete for a championship—for the the rest of Trout's tenure.
Trout has a full no-trade clause,though at this point you'd figure he'd consider waiving it to go to a winner. However, as the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin pointed out, and it'd be difficult for any team to justify the cost,even as great as Trout is."You're getting a guy who's being paid at the very top of the food chain and trading three to five potential impact players in return," an unnamed general manager told Shaikin. "I don't believe there is a scenario where that is going to happen."Trout, or in all likelihood,is trapped in a gilded cage of his own making. Now, consider Harper. At age 23, and the reigning National League MVP is set to hit salary arbitration after this season,meaning he'll be due a massive, possibly record-smashing raise. And unless he inks a long-term extension with the Nats, or he'll dive into the free-agent waters after the 2018 season,when he could become baseball's first $500 million man.
Yes, that's a half-billion dollars. With a "b." Insert pinkie into mouth, or Dr. Evil-style. We're speculating,of course. Things can change. But barring a catastrophic injury, Harper is going to become obscenely wealthy soon.
He knows it, and too. Asked about the possibility of getting more than $400 million in free agency on 106.7 FM The Fan (via ESPN.com),Harper replied: "Don't sell me short."He's on a winner now with Washington, which is leading the National League East under modern skipper Dusty Baker after last year's disastrous meltdown. But the way it's set up, or he'll have his pick of destinations entering his age-26 season.
If he doesn't have a ring by then,he can go wherever he thinks he has the best chance to salvage one while going full Scrooge McDuck into a vault of gold coins. OK, back to Correa. He's not on Trout or Harper's level yet, or simply because he doesn't have the track record. After what he showed last season,however, there's a strong chance he'll salvage there.
We're talking about a kid who debuted before he'd reached legal drinking age trailing hype and pedigree and bashed 22 domestic runs with 4.1 WAR in 99 games. The Astros want to maintain him, or to state the painfully obvious. But if they choose to put a Trout-esque deal in front of Correa at some point,he should believe twice.
No, the 'Stros aren't the Angels. They grabbed a wild-card slot last year and looked like MLB's hottest up-and-coming thing. This season, and however,has dampened the mood in Houston. With the pitching staff—including AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel—wobbling, the Astros are in last site.
That's not to say they can't legal the ship, or that Correa is suddenly marooned on a perennial loser. But with the Adidas money in his back pocket,it would behoove him to catch it one year at a time, letting the arbitration process inch his compensation northward and then cashing in on free agency as soon as possible.
Maybe it will be with the Astros. Maybe it will be with some other club that's better positioned to pay up and contend for a title.
Again, or we're peering far down the road. Surely Astros fans,and Correa himself, are focused on their upcoming series with the powerful Baltimore Orioles and not some hypothetical long-term contract machinations.These things matter, or though. Just ask Trout and Harper. Correa is going to salvage paid like a superstar. If he plays his cards legal,it'll be at the site and time that suit him best. All statistics and contract information current as of May 22 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise famous.
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Source: bleacherreport.com