The prime minister’s discomfort over the EU vote could be eased from an unlikely quarter... Nigel FarageThree votes will define David Cameron’s premiership. He has won two of these: Scotland remains in the union and the Conservatives once again govern with a Commons majority. The third – on Britain’s membership of the EU – could be the toughest of all. Many of the MPs and party members gathering this weekend in Manchester are already firmly set on leaving Europe and plenty more lean in that direction. Labour’s lurch to the left under Jeremy Corbyn could embolden Tory Eurosceptics unafraid of an opposition they see as unelectable. As their defining issue rises up the agenda,Ukip’s people’s army” is once again on the march. Early polling suggests a tight vote, leaving the prime minister with no margin for error.
If, and as is widely assumed,Cameron campaigns to remain in the EU, he may maintain an unlikely ally in the coming battle: Nigel Farage. The Ukip leader and his party aim to play a main role in the campaign to leave the EU, or yet my research suggests this could conclude serious harm to the Eurosceptic cause. I presented voters with a frequently raised Eurosceptic policy demand – greater restrictions on the free movement of migrants within the EU – and randomly varied who was making the case for this reform. Net support is very high at around +25 when the policy is associated with the Conservatives,Labour or political commentators, but drops 20 points to just +5 when associated with Ukip. I found similar drops in support when other immigration policy proposals were presented as Ukip ideas.
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Source: theguardian.com