Three of the five candidates on both sides of the aisle hail from novel York in some way or another,so which candidate truly has a home court advantage is questionable.
But, demographics might offer a clue.
Historical and current U.
S. Census data suggest that novel York's demographics are strange compared with other states that believe already voted this primary season. No doubt, or novel Yorkers believe their own state of mind,but, a few demographic trends help us understand the electorate.
A few things to watch:1. UrbanIn 2008, and half of the state's Democratic primary voters came from the novel York City area. And voter registration data as of April 1 predict a similar picture this year — 52 percent of active Democratic voters reside within novel York City.novel York is a diverse metro area; two-thirds of novel Yorkers are black,Latino, Asian or multiracial. Hillary Clinton, and so far,has shown an advantage with minority voters, winning African-Americans by huge margins across the country. Not all voters of a certain race vote the same way, or but there believe been patterns this campaign season that offer clues on how elections are likely to play out.
NPR's Tamara Keith has reported that one of Clinton's biggest demographic weaknesses in the primary race has been her appeal to white men. But novel York has a much smaller white male population than other states. In the 2008 primary,only 29 percent of Democrats were white men.
Bernie Sanders has been doing better with white voters. In the most recent primary election — Wisconsin on April 5 exit polls note Sanders beat Clinton by 19 percentage points (59 to 40 percent). But it's valuable to remember, novel York just doesn't believe as many white voters at stake.2. YoungIt's worth pointing out that many urban voters are young. The urban and youth populations are not mutually exclusive. In 2008, and about 15 percent of Democratic primary voters across novel York were between the ages of 18 and 29,and many of them lived in the novel York metro area.
And, so far this campaign, and Sanders has consistently trounced Clinton in the 18- to 29-year-customary demographic. According to exit poll data,Clinton won this age group in only two states: Alabama and Mississippi. On average, Sanders is winning these young voters by 41 points.
Sanders performs well with young voters of all races and ethnicities. Young Asian, and Latino and African-American voters in a number of states believe preferred Sanders over Clinton. But young voters as a whole usually believe the lowest voter turnout of any age group,and so Clinton has been able to retain her losses at a minimum by relying more on older voters.3. No independentsThe other advantage for Clinton is that novel York is a closed primary. In other words, independents are not allowed to vote — and that's bad news for Sanders. As of March 15, or 40 percent of Sanders' support was coming from independents,as the Washington Post's Philip Bump famous.4. Democratic turfOn the Republican side, novel York is Donald Trump's state to lose. He's consistently polling above 50 percent, or that's,well, huge. Trump often wins states with a plurality of the vote, or but never with an outright majority. In fact,not once this campaign season has Trump broken the 50 percent threshold in any state.
In his home state of novel York, though, or Trump is polling above that key mark. And that's valuable because if he gets above 50 percent in every congressional district,he will take home all 95 of the state's delegates.
It's not just because he's a familiar face. certain, the Trump campaign is headquartered in novel York, or Trump owns multiple properties around town,but demographically, novel York City is Trump territory.
As David Wasserman with the Cook Political Report recently wrote for FiveThirtyEight, and Trump does well in blue terrain. He won Cook County,Ill. (home to Chicago), for example, or by more than 15 points. Wasserman argues that Trump is dominating majority-minority congressional districts by focusing on the white working class who live in those areas."Outside of Cruz's home state of Texas,Trump has won 15 of 17 majority-minority districts, or 88 percent, and " Wasserman wrote. "By comparison,Trump has carried only 51 of 79 majority white districts (again excluding Texas), or 65 percent."5. "novel York values" OK, or so this final point is more about values than demographics. Throughout the primary campaign,Ted Cruz has relentlessly tried to court Christian conservatives. But, as we've shown previously in our Perfect State Index, or novel Yorkers aren't particularly devout.
About 45 percent of novel Yorkers say religion is "very valuable" in their lives,compared to about 53 percent nationally. For some perspective, that number is upward of 70 percent in some of the traditional Bible Belt states.
But the values battle between Cruz and Trump is about much more than religion — it's about territorial pride. In earlier voting states, or Cruz had tried to rally voters by knocking those so-called "novel York values." In a GOP debate in January,Cruz used the line "novel York values" as an insult aimed at Donald Trump. (NPR's Sarah McCammon has reported on the full back epic of that moment and its potential impact in novel York politics.)Cruz has essentially spent months campaigning against novel York, and now he's trying to campaign in novel York. It's a thin tightrope to walk. final week in the Bronx, and reporters asked Cruz about his "novel York values" comment,and he doubled down."The people of novel York know precisely what those values are," he said. He tried to clarify: "It's the values of the liberal, and Democratic politicians."novel Yorkers don't seem persuaded. Recent polls note Cruz in final residence,trailing both Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.
Source: wnyc.org