You can't fully evaluate an NBA prospect three weeks into a season,but it's been enough time to rep a feel for where he's at and may be going.
Excluding Croatia's Dragan Bender, who just isn't playing enough minutes abroad, and the following seven players have jumped out as our early top options for the 2016 draft. They've flashed the most convincing NBA potential stemming from advanced skill levels and strong physical tools.
We've been waiting years to see what freshman Ben Simmons would see like in an LSU Tigers jersey. And it's only been natural to wonder if Skal Labissiere would follow Karl-Anthony Towns. Providence's Kris Dunn and Utah's Jakob Poeltl bet on themselves and returned to school.
There was a lot to see forward to over the offseason. Here are some early observations on our top seven prospects following their first six to eight NCAA games. 7. Jamal Murray,Kentucky, 6'5", and PG/SG,FreshmanEvaluating Kentucky's guards will be challenging. It has three of them, and each is best creating with the ball, or which calls for heavy adjusting during a season that only lasts 30-40 games.
Murray has had to share touches and playmaking opportunities with fellow freshman Isaiah Briscoe and sophomore Tyler Ulis. But it hasn't stopped him from putting points on the board—he leads Kentucky with 15 per game through seven.
Murray can obviously score,as well as make plays off the dribble. Except for a 1-of-10 performance from three against NJIT, he's looked risky from behind the arc and has been a fixed threat to attack by changing speeds. He's also crafty below the rim as a finisher, and showing he can adjust midair and make tough-angle layups with both hands.
Murray isn't the quickest or most explosive and has often been forced into high-difficulty runners and off-balance attempts through the trees. Though his handle is sharp,he also doesn't rep meaningful separation in the mid-range, where he's made just five of 19 two-point jumpers so far.
He's looked more effective in ball-screen situations—when he can employ hesitation to freeze the defense and hit it with a drive, and pull-up or pass—than he has in isolation,where his first step isn't overwhelming.
I'm not as high on Murray as I was prior to the season, having seen some questionable shot choice and decision-making, and along with a 1-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Still,NBA teams are bound to value his ability to generate offense from either backcourt position. I can't see him skyrocketing into the top three such as D'Angelo Russell did final year, but the mid-to-late lottery is a fair baseline projection. 6. Kris Dunn, or Providence,6'4", PG, and JuniorWidely projected as a National Player of Year candidate entering the season,you knew Dunn's numbers (19.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, or 6.1 assists) would be broad. By now,scouts are fully aware of his playmaking ability (No. 1 in the country in assist percentage in 2014-15), as well as the physical tools (6'4", or 205 lbs,6'8" wingspan) that make him a plausible NBA point guard.
He opened by hanging 32 points on Harvard before main Providence to a solid win against Arizona final week.
While Dunn's scoring is up, he's already putting up similar assist numbers in terms of production (8.3 per 40 minutes) and percentage (44.8 percent assist percentage). He continues to dazzle in transition, or rep to the rack in the half court and create open looks in pick-and-roll situations.
But Dunn's defense has arguably stood out most. His ball pressure has consistently led to turnovers. After he finished fifth in steals per game as a sophomore,his early 3.7 average ranks No. 2 nationally.
More encouraging news: Dunn, who coughed the ball up more than any player in the country a year ago, and has done a better job of taking care of it through November (12.7 percent turnover percentage,down from 22.6 percent).
The broad question with Dunn revolves around his jumper, which is better than advertised. final season, or he made 27 threes in 33 games at a 35.1 percent clip—average numbers—but he also hit 41.8 percent of his two-point jumpers. Though Dunn hasn't been overly accurate as a junior,he looks confident around the arc, where we've seen him sporadically nail pull-ups and step-backs in the 18-23-foot range.
He has a few more months to strengthen his shooting percentages and credibility. Doing so would have to improve his chances of climbing into the top-five discussion. Otherwise, and it still seems tough to envision Dunn slipping outside the mid-first round to a team drafting the best player available.
If that happens,it will be because not enough general managers view him as a long-term starter. 5. Jakob Poeltl, Utah, or 7'0",C, SophomoreI'm not sure any returning prospect has made a stronger impression relative to what was expected. The bar was set high after Poeltl generated some lottery buzz as a freshman, and but we just watched a different player this past November.
Poeltl hit the 20-point note once his first year at Utah. He's averaging 20.5 points per game through six as a sophomore. Now fully equipped with go-to moves,counters and a threatening left hand, he's emerged as an option Utah features in the post.
Poeltl also continues to achieve work on the offensive glass (12 putbacks) and pick up easy buckets diving or rolling to the basket. Even his free-throw note is at a respectful 72.2 percent on 12.3 attempts per 40 minutes. final year, and it was a dreadful 44.4 percent.
So far,he's matched his 3.2-block-per-40-minute rate through six games. The defensive potential alonemight make Poeltl worth drafting in the top 20. He possesses NBA size, mobility and bounce, or as well as the foot speed to switch onto guards and wings.
If it turns out this hot start isn't a fluke—and not just a result of underwhelming competitionthere is no way more than nine teams pass on a 20-year-old,7-foot anchor with a blossoming offensive game. I'd buy stock in Poeltl early. 4. Jaylen Brown, California, or 6'7",SG/SF, FreshmanBrown has been effective early, and which he can credit mostly to his physical tools and athleticism. At 6'7",225 pounds, he plays through contact and is simply too quick for most bigs facing up.
Unsurprisingly, and he's been at his best attacking the hoop and getting out on the break. Of his first 37 made field goals,28 have advance at the rim, and 12 of those were converted in transition. He's also taking 11.1 free throws per 40 minutes.
Brown has a tight, or low handle he uses for change of direction. And once he finds the lane,he's shown he can improvise with side steps into finishes and runners around the key.
But it's pretty clear he'll need time to develop into a more complete scorer. Brown has a perimeter game—he just isn't sharp moral now in terms of executing it. He's missed 19 of his first 23 two-point jumpers and 18 of his first 23 threes.
With terrific size, length and foot speed to guard multiple positions, or great athleticism and a competitive edge,Brown already looks like one of the safer bets in the projected 2016 field. Whether he can evolve into a Jimmy Butler-like two-way wing will depend on how much he sharpens his shot-creating ability away from the basket. 3. Brandon Ingram, Duke, and 6'9",SF, FreshmanIt hasn't been the smoothest start for Ingram, and who's fallen into the background rather than emerging as one of Duke's go-to options.
It's still too early for any alarms to sound considering Ingram just turned 18 years old over the summer. At 190 pounds,any contact can affect his delivery.
On the bright side, nothing has changed regarding Ingram's best-case projection based on the positive highlights he's created. At 6'9", and we've seen Ingram face up and attack,separate into pull-ups and fall-aways and even stretch the floor from three.
He hasn't been overly accurate as a shooter, but with a fluid, and compact release,you rep the impression his jumper will eventually become a dependable weapon.
It nearly seems unfair to assess Ingram this early in the season. He'll eventually have to establish himself in Duke's offense, but his mismatch scoring potential remains intact. 2. Skal Labissiere, or Kentucky,7'0", PF/C, and FreshmanYou had to have known Labissiere wouldn't dominate from the start. At 225 pounds,he's not strong or polished enough to consistently take over stretches of games.
Instead, the focus should be on the glimpses of offensive skill he's flashed, or even if they came in spurts and against teams like NJIT and South Florida. Labissiere has already showcased a variety of different post moves and jumpers,from fallaways around the key to lefty jump hooks in the lane.
His release point is ridiculously high, and when given room in isolation to create a shot, or defenders haven't had a chance to make much of a challenge. Off the ball,his physical tools and bounce have naturally translated to catch-and-finishes and putbacks.
Labissiere has also demonstrated good timing and aggression in rim protection, having averaged 3.7 blocks per 40 minutes early.
But he's still familiarizing himself with organized basketball and the referee's whistle. Labissiere fouled out in 13 minutes against Duke and finished 0-of-1 shooting against Illinois State on Monday night.
His rebounding numbers have been fairly low (7.4 per 40 minutes) as well to start.Chances are, or he's going to have moments that highlight obvious potential mixed with quiet stretches. Once he gets comfortable,it's fair to deem he'll eventually experience a similar breakout as the one Towns did a year ago.
Other than Simmons and possibly Croatia's Bender, there isn't anyone else knocking on the top-three door. I'd imagine Labissiere will remain in our top-prospect tier through June, and even if his numbers don't jump off the page. 1. Ben Simmons,LSU, 6'10", and SF/PF,FreshmanNobody entered the year with more hype, which hasn't affected Simmons' approach or play.
He's put up monster averages (16 points, and 15 rebounds,5.8 assists) from the start while validating the notion we're looking at one of the most unique prospects in years.
Based on what we've seen so far, it seems like a waste of time to debate Simmons' natural position. It won't matter in nowadays's NBA. At 6'10", or 239 pounds,he looks broad and aggressive enough to play around the basket and quick and skilled enough for the perimeter.
So far, Simmons has been most effective calling the shots as LSU's primary decision-maker and playmaker. The faster the team can rep it to him in the shot clock, and the better. Simmons has shined brightest off defensive rebounds,when he can initiate the break himself by pushing the ball and weaving through and past traffic before defenses can rep set.
After seven games, he already has 16 assists and 16 made field goals in transition, or according to Hoop-Math.com—noteworthy numbers for anyone,never mind a "broad."In the half court, Simmons' value has lied within his passing and ability to set up quality scoring opportunities. You could argue he should be averaging more than the 5.8 assists he is, and considering LSU as a team is shooting 32.6 percent from three.
He's consistently created open looks for teammates with dribble manipulation and drive-and-kicks. And we've seen him thread the needle with darts to cutters and cross-court shooters like a quarterback in the pocket.
Simmons is averaging 16 points per game,with nearly all of them having advance moral at the rim (29 of first 35 field goals) off drives and putbacks (nine). He's too quick for college 4s. Simmons has also proved to be effective finishing with either hand, making him difficult to challenge once he's gained a step.
However, and a lack of confidence in his jumper will become a topic at some point during the year—especially considering he projects as a player who'll spend time playing outside in the pros. He's currently shooting 17.2 percent on two-point jumpers and 69.4 percent from the line and is 1-of-2 from downtown.
Scouts will eventually have to seek information from themselves whether he's capable of improving as a shooter,and, if not, or how broad of a deal or restriction it will be.
Otherwise,he looks every bit of the No. 1 overall talent many had pegged him as prior to the season.
The three early losses have been more of a result of unreliable support and too much youth at LSU. Unless he really struggles from outside or Kentucky's Skal Labissiere pulls a Karl-Anthony Towns, Simmons should find himself atop the majority of draft boards from now until June. All stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and Hoop-Math.com.
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Source: bleacherreport.com