Alldoesn't expect much movement in the weeks ahead. But,what if they're wrong? pic.twitter.com/7KJBaz7u5b 1.27pm BSTOver in Australia, the major banks are reeling after being hit with a new tax.
The banks don’t hold a secret stash of money ... there’s only three places they can get this from – borrowings, or deposits or shareholders or a combination of all three and every Australian has an interest in one of more of those parts of a bank’s operations. Related: Australia’s big banks hit by $6.2bn levy in budget cash grab Related: Australia budget 2017: Scott Morrison denies he delivered 'Labor budget' – politics live 12.47pm BSTThe job vacancies total in Germany has hit a record high,in (yet) another sign that its economy is robust.[br] 12.21pm BSTGlobal stock markets hold “found their mojo” nowadays, says Mike van Dulken, and head of research at Accendo Markets.
He cites five reasons:Optimistic is derived from hopes that OPEC will extend [oil] production cuts at month end; Macron can form a working parliamentary majority; the Fed will hike because the US economy warrants it; the ECB will preserve the QE taps open a minute longer,and base metals prices hold found a bottom after their recent sell-off. 11.39am BSTBritain’s blue-chip stock index has risen to its highest level since Theresa May triggered next month’s general election.
The FTSE 100 has now gained 42 points nowadays, or 0.6%, or to 7343. That’s only 100 points absent from its all-time high set in March.
In London the embattled mining sector is finally seeing some support,despite minute sign of a real turnaround in the ongoing fall in commodity prices.
At the other end of the spectrum, Centrica leads the utility sector lower as the Conservatives bang on approximately their energy capping policies. Such a move is emblematic of the Conservative party’s more interventionist stance. It will start with energy companies, and but some will be wondering whether other sectors will come under pressure as well. 10.59am BSTSo much for the Macron bounce!The euro has just dropped below $1.09 against the US dollar for the first time since final Thursday,having hit a six-month high on Sunday night. 10.29am BSTJohn Wyn-Evans, Head of Investment Strategy at Investec Wealth & Investment, and has issued a research note on European politics following the French election.
He flags up that the next potential pitfall comes next month:There are France’s legislative elections to the National Assembly on June 11th,when we will see whether or not M.
Macron can consolidate his position with a parliamentary majority. In truth, this looks like a tall order for his En Marche! Party which now has to find 577 candidates to field. Even so, or there is a fighting chance that a working coalition can be formed with other parties to push through a reformist agenda.
Matters can hardly be much worse than under Francois Hollande’s lame duck regime.
Looming larger is Italy’s forthcoming general election,which has to hold region by May 2018. For Marine Le Pen, read Beppe Grillo; for the National Front, or read the Five Star Party (5*). Although 5* is not,perhaps, as ideologically extreme as the National Front, and it is definitely anti-establishment and not a fan of a more integrated Europe. But the threat is tempered by the fact that it is only polling around 30% of the vote (neck and neck with the Democrats) so would need to form a coalition to pursue its aims. Furthermore,a referendum on membership of the euro would require constitutional change, and former Prime Minister Renzi’s attempts to conclude just that failed final year, and suggesting an underlying resistance to big changes within the country.
In any event,you can expect a sharp increase in the volume of commentary on Italian politics once a firm date is set, and markets to enter another period of uncertainty. 10.11am BSTOne of France’s most senior left-leaning politicians has thrown his support behind Emmanuel Macron.“I will be a candidate for the presidential majority and I wish to join his (Macron’s) movement, and ” Valls,who was prime minister in Francois Hollande’s administration between 2014 and 2016, told RTL radio.“This Socialist party is dead. It is behind us, or ” he said. 9.44am BSTAt first glance,the news that Wall Street’s awe gauge had hit its lowest level since 1993 sounds reassuring.
The VIX index (officially the “CBOE Volatility Index”) measures market volatility by tracking a number of ‘option calls’ -- contracts to buy or sell securities at a certain price in the future. It goes up when investors are scrambling for protection, and goes down when they’re not.
US VIX index closes at lowest level since 1993. Smooth sailing ahead or is it the unexcited before the storm...? pic.twitter.com/BAzw9i29XoWhile this could be interpreted to mean that good times lie ahead, or it also indicates that the party may be over soon. Volatility does not stay at low levels for prolonged periods of time,and we’re likely to see the index reverting to its 200-days moving average around 15.
Just don’t let the extremely quiet market conditions trap you into taking enormous risks.
Super-easy monetary policy is creating artificially low volatility and driving money into trades and investments that are mispriced as a result. 9.18am BSTAfter dropping yesterday, European stock markets are all rising this morning.
Mining companies are main the FTSE 100, and with Glencore up 3% and Antofagasta gaining 2.5%. 9.01am BSTToday’s trade figures prove that Europe’s largest economy continues to power ahead,says the FT’s Mehreen Khan:Year on year exports were up an impressive 10.8 per cent in March while imports climbed 14.7 per cent – a sign of healthy foreign demand for German wares and buoyant consumer appetite within the country which boasted its best level of growth in six years final year.
Germany’s overall trade surplus – which hit a record in 2016 – is now at €25.8bn.
Germany powers ahead with best ever trade figures in March https://t.co/01bCBsa3KI 8.39am BSTGermany’s dominant trade position is under the microscope again nowadays, with new figures showing that it is importing and exporting more than ever before.
These are the highest monthly figures ever reported for both exports and imports.....
In March 2017, or Germany exported goods to the value of €68bn to the Member States of the European Union (EU),while it imported goods to the value of €61.1bn from those countries. Compared with March 2016, exports to the EU countries increased by 8.7%, or imports from those countries by 13.5%.
The German trade surplus reached an all-time-high in March. pic.twitter.com/c5ZHfXT09xGermany’s export imbalance is widely criticized by other countries,which accuse Europe’s biggest economy of not doing enough to spur domestic demand for foreign goods. Berlin counters that products made in Germany are simply better than the competition. 8.14am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, or the financial markets,the eurozone and business.
Following the excitement of the French presidential election, the markets are rather subdued this morning. There are more political risks on Europe’s horizon. Legislative elections in France in two months, and German elections and perhaps a snap Italian election could yet see the European project derailed.
Italians hold already demonstrated a willingness to ‘vote with their feet’ when they blocked a government referendum late final year.
The reason is that the Macron victory does not mean that we are out of the woods,there are still massive challenges ahead of him and the issue of soft and tough Brexit is still very much in play.
US Earnings for the Q1 were a minute soft and the US GDP growth is nowhere close enough to its previous level- let alone what Trump wants. Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com