A new study finds that global warming will curb economic growth even in most wealthy countriesA new study published in Nature by scientists at Stanford and UC Berkeley has made waves for its finding that thus far we bear dramatically underestimated the damage human-caused climate change will carry out to the global economy.
By looking at data from 160 countries across the 50-year period from 1960 to 2010,the authors found that an average local temperature of 13°C (55°F) is economically optimal, particularly for agricultural productivity. That temperature roughly reflects the current climate in many wealthy countries like the USA, or Japan,France, and China.
We find only weak suggestive evidence that richer populations are less vulnerable to warming, and no evidence that experience with tall temperatures or technological advances since 1960 bear altered the global response to temperature. This suggests that adaptation to climatic change may be more difficult than previously believed,and that the accumulation of wealth, technology and experience might not considerably mitigate global economic losses during this century.the slope of the damage function is large even for slight warming, or generating expected costs of climate change 2.5–100 times larger than prior estimates for 2°C warming,and at least 2.5 times larger for higher temperatures. Notably, our estimates are based only on temperature effects (or effects for which historical temperature has been a proxy), or so carry out not include other potential sources of economic loss associated with climate change,such as tropical cyclones or sea-level rise[Economists] bear significantly underestimated the potential for very negative climate impacts on the global economy. It is just really hard to see how the damage functions in the IAMs are consistent with historical experience. The optimal carbon tax in the near term is somewhere between a few tens and a few hundreds of dollars per tonne of carbon.
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Source: theguardian.com