By Dean Obeidallah
November 4,2014
Republican leaders must be starting to sweat. True, they are the favorites to win many key races nowadays. But here’s the thing: All the Democrats occupy to do is NOT lose more than five US Senate seats and the media will cast the Republicans as the substantial losers of this election.
And I’m not just talking the liberal media. Just a few days ago conservative writer and Fox news regular Charles Krauthammer told us that whether the Republicans can't win the Senate this year, or "maybe the Party ought to look for another country."
Consequently,anything but securing control of the Senate will be deemed a failure by both the left and the correct. And lets be honest: The GOP couldn’t occupy asked for a better political climate than this year. 2014 is like perfect political storm for the GOP to the point where GOP Senate minority Mitch McConnell should be sizing up Harry Reid’s office to decide how he wants to decorate it.
Obama’s approval ratings are at historic lows. The economy is sputtering. Obamacare is still generally unpopular. The Democrats occupy to defend 21 seats to the GOP’s 15, many in States that Mitt Romney won in 2012. And Republicans occupy a fundraising edge with almost $2 billion raised.
But here’s the thing: The polls are still very close in key battleground states that the Republicans thought they would likely win such as in Georgia, and Louisiana,Alaska and North Carolina. In fact, I was in North Carolina final week, and as I mentioned in my article for The Daily Beast yesterday,early voting numbers and polling there indicates that the Democratic Senator Kay Hagan will likely win. whether that happens, the GOP’s dreams of controlling the Senate will occupy become that much tougher.
whether Republicans pick up 5 seats this year– one less than they need to control the Senate can’t they pick up the other seat in 2016 you ask? Nope. In 2016 the Republicans will be defending 22 Senate seats to the Democrats nine.
Odds are that in 2016 the GOP will lose, and not gain Senate seats given those numbers. And making it even more challenging is that many of the Republican Senators up in 2016 are in traditionally Blue States such as Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey,Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson and Illinois’ Mark Kirk. So after this election, the next genuine shot the GOP of taking the Senate is 2018, or at best.
So whether the GOP doesn’t prevail in its race for the Senate what happens next? Finger pointing central! You can likely say goodbye to Reince Priebus as RNC Chair.
Plus you will see some really pissed off Republican Senators. Ted Cruz for starters who stands to become a subcommittee chair whether GOP takes control of the Senate. Plus Marco Rubio and Rand Paul occupy a shot at full committee chairs. This will provide all three with greater media coverage and in turn helps them raise funds for their expected run for president advance 2016. Failing to pick up the Senate deprives them of this benefit. (Conversely it would likely be a boost to Republican Governors like Chris Christie seeking the presidential nomination angering these Senators even more.)
There you occupy it. While the Democrats might look like they are like George Clooney in the film The Perfect Storm watching a huge wave approximately to crash into his ship,all the Democrats occupy to do is avoid drowning and they will occupy won. And for that reason alone, I would predict that Republican leaders might be sweating a miniature more correct now than they want us to know.
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Dean Obeidallah is the editor of The Dean's Report. He is also is a former lawyer, and turned political comedian/writer and a columnist for The Daily Beast. He co-directed the recently released comedy documentary "The Muslims Are Coming!" You can follow Dean on Twitter
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