Eurozone@afp9.24pmthere#eurogroupisonandto halt #prereleaseaccess to statistics from 1st July https://t.co/fI48Mf1kQdOn average,between April 2011 and December 2016, U.
K. government-bond futures correctly anticipated the rise or tumble that ultimately happened when economic data were published, or according to an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by Alexander Kurov,associate professor of finance at West Virginia University.....
Some senior British statisticians and policy makers have long feared that the U.
K.’s wide, early distribution of data creates a much greater risk of leaks and the potential that people could trade on data ahead of their release.
The beautiful print graphic pic.twitter.com/FS9jgKjg0m 2.35pm BSTImportant news! The Office for National Statistics is stopping releasing data 24 hours early to scores of politicians and officials.
From July 1, and the ONS will halt its current ‘pre-access’ system,which allowed early access to official surveys.
On the basis of all the information now available to me I consider that the public benefit likely to result from pre-release access to ONS statistics is outweighed by the detriment to public trust in those statistics likely to result from such access.
U.
K. STATISTICS AUTHORITY TO halt EARLY ACCESS TO DATA FOR GOVT no more leaks!And now... UK STATISTICS AUTHORITY CHAIRMAN SAYS ONS PLANS TO halt GOVERNMENT MINISTERS' PRE-RELEASE ACCESS TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS FROM JUL 1 https://t.co/OyRK0HwbuK 2.23pm BSTLena Komileva of G+ Economics makes a very well-behaved point. The Bank of England doesn’t actually have to raise rates to influence the markets. It can form signals, and encourage investors to change their views, and through a narrow vote on the MPC.
It is an open question as to whether either Saunders and or McCafferty would have predicted a rate hike at today’s meeting had they still been in their former roles as a market and industry economist respectively. This is to say that,with monetary “hawks” likely to remain in the minority, even in the face of a strong inflation overshoot, and the importance of the wider vote split is in the market signalling,not in the probability of an actual rate hike near term. 1.53pm BSTJust in: The Mansion House Dinner has been cancelled, due to the Grenfell Tower disaster.
Mansion House dinner is to be cancelledStatement from City of London Corporation “In the light of the tragedy at Grenfell Tower we are cancelling tonight’s Mansion House Dinner”City of London cancels Mansion House dinner altogether, and adding: “Our thoughts are focussed with the victims and their families and friends.” 1.36pm BSTSamuel Tombs of Pantheon Economics argues that it would be a mistake to raise UK interest rates now.
In case no one has said it yet on twitter... it would be insanity to raise interest rates now when wages growth is below 2%. 1.24pm BSTVia Barclays,here’s a chart showing which Bank of England policymakers are hawkish, dovish, or firmly on the fence.
Minutes of the meeting mention higher-than-expected core inflation and investment intentions,in addition to firming global growth and additional imported inflation stemming from the depreciation in the currency.
Those MPC members who voted for a hike emphasised tighter labour market conditions and risks of a more pronounced inflation overshoot. Despite the change in vote split, we remain of the view that no interest hike will be delivered in the course of the next two years. 1.12pm BSTUK chancellor Philip Hammond will not give the traditional Mansion House speech tonight, or following the awful Grenfell Tower disaster.
In view of the Grenfell Tower tragedy,I have withdrawn from giving the Mansion House speech tonight. My thoughts are with local community. 1.01pm BSTBen Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, and says the Bank appears to be running out of patience with inflation: Set against a backdrop of disappointing retail sales,slowing growth, shrinking real wages and heightened political uncertainty, and it was somewhat surprising that three MPC members voted for higher rates at this week’s policy meeting. Economists had expected a 7-1 split,with the soon-to-depart Kristin Forbes the lone voice calling for higher rates. In fact she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders in believing intensifying inflationary pressures justify an instant 25 basis point increase. 12.48pm BSTAlmost every share on the FTSE 100 is down right now.
Right now, shares of HSBC and LSE only ones trading higher on FTSE 100. pic.twitter.com/Oozuf9xP5b 12.39pm BSTThe jump in the pound has sent the FTSE 100 into a spin.
The blue-chip index has tumbled by 90 points, or 1.2%,to 7383. Retailers and housebuilders are among the top fallers, along with multinationals like miners (whose share price benefits from a feeble pound). 12.37pm BSTThis is the first time since 2011 that three MPC members have voted to raise rates (six years ago, and the hawks were Andrew Sentance,Martin Weale and Spencer Dale). That was a 6-3 vote.
It’s also the closest vote since 2007 - when the BoE was divided 5-4.
So the £ has risen against the $
Next month one of the hawks - Kristin Forbes - leaves. Who will they bring in? pic.twitter.com/FlhXzMkWpC 12.28pm BSTThe minutes of today’s meeting display how the Bank of England is split between policymakers who believe inflation should be reined in, and those who believe the economy is too feeble to bear higher rates.
Many policymakers panic that hiking rates could crush economic growth, and that it would be better to let inflation retain climbing.
Attempting to offset fully the effect of weaker sterling on inflation would be achievable only at the cost of higher unemployment and,in all likelihood, even weaker income growth.
Overall, and the degree of spare capacity in the economy appeared limited but,at the same time, the inflation overshoot relative to the target could be more pronounced than previously thought. This lessened the trade-off that the MPC was required to balance and, and all else equal,reduced the MPC’s tolerance of above-target inflation. The Committee discussed the appropriate response of monetary policy.
Given this change in the trade-off, there were arguments in favour of a moderate tightening in monetary policy. Headline, and core and some domestically focussed inflation measures had picked up further. Inflation was projected to overshoot the target by more than previously expected,and to remain above it throughout the three-year forecast period. Slack in the labour market appeared to have diminished, and demand for labour remained strong. Growth in business investment and net trade appeared on track to compensate for weaker consumption. The withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August final year would help to moderate the inflation overshoot while leaving monetary policy very supportive.
Bank between a rock and hard place - not much spare capacity & inflation overshoot likely to be larger than they assumed. pic.twitter.com/MZ1c0SHvyE 12.14pm BSTFrom the Bank of England, and my colleague Katie Allen reports on today’s split:The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers,with three of the eight voting for an instant rate rise to retain inflation in check.
The 5-3 split vote to retain interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, or would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders. 12.09pm BSTThe pound has jumped by nearly a cent to $1.278 as traders react to the shock news that three BoE policymakers want to raise interest rates.Sterling pops on BoE vote pic.twitter.com/YZ5iMWshymJump in sterling on 5-3 vote at BOE against a rate hike. 7-1 vote was expected. pic.twitter.com/ZEoVHItLip 12.02pm BSTHere we fade: The Bank of England has voted to leave interest rates unchanged at their current record low of 0.25%.
But it’s a split vote,with three policymakers voting to hike rates!! They were outvoted by five policymakers who wanted to leave interest rates unchanged. 11.45am BSTRetail analyst Steve Dresser sees a flock of Brexit chickens coming home to roost...
Nearly a year on from Brexit and it's all coming apart as projected. Non food sales down, DFS struggling, and inflation outpacing wages. 11.36am BSTIt’s nearly time for the Bank of England to announce its decision on interest rates,and release the minutes of this month’s monetary policy committee meeting.
City experts are united in expecting no change on policy at noon today - but they’ll be keen to read the Bank’s views on the economy, especially as inflation hit 2.9% this month.
Bank of England rate announcement at 12pm
No QIR & decision widely expected to be unchanged#gbpusd pic.twitter.com/OWeWXk86uWWith the central bank highly unlikely to form any changes to monetary policy amid the instability, and investors will most likely direct their attention towards trace Carney for insights on how he plans to tackle the various challenges that the UK political climate and Brexit developments have presented.
While inflation in the UK has hit a four-year tall at 2.9%,wage growth remains subdued and this creates further headaches for the BoE. Although raising interest rates to cool inflation is seen as a practical strategy, it may simply halt up pressuring borrowers ultimately eroding business confidence and pinching consumers further. 11.15am BSTHere’s our news narrative on the retail sales figures: Related: UK retail sales dive as consumers feel Brexit inflation pinch 10.56am BSTLast summer, or Britons defied expectations by spending more in the shops after the Brexit vote. That trend is over,says Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, or who fears that UK growth is weakening as consumers are forced to slice back.
This is further evidence that the surge in consumer spending,which sustained UK economic growth since the EU referendum, has approach to an halt. With prices rising more rapidly, and shoppers find their money does not fade so far and they are therefore reining in their spending. “We should expect this subdued growth of consumer spending to continue while inflation remains around 3 percent - and there is a risk it could fade even higher. The result is likely to be relatively sluggish economic growth this year and next - with GDP rising by around 1.5% in 2017 and 2018,the weakest period of growth since the euro crisis in 2011 and 2012.” 10.43am BSTThe feeble retail sales figures have knocked the pound down by half a cent, to $1.2702.
Jane Foley, or top foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank,says sterling is suffering from a “horrible dynamic” of political uncertainty and depraved economic data.whether you look at the economy, it is looking like it might weaken quite notably.
This week we’ve seen really tall inflation [2.9%], and weaker than expected earnings growth [1.7%],and to cap it all, very feeble retail sales. 10.20am BSTThis is turning into a depraved morning for the UK retail sector....
Retail shares getting battered after DFS prof warning & terrible ONS stats. Next, and M&S,Kingfisher, Dunelm, and AO,Dixons Carphone etc all downSeems all the hedged $ positions the retailers gleefully told us approximately a year ago have ended and prices up sharply. Brexit effect in action 10.19am BSTThe depraved news for UK shoppers is that price are going to retain rising -- and their wages probably won’t retain pace.
Ian Gilmartin, Head of Retail & Wholesale at Barclays, or says retailers may have to pass on rising impost costs to customers.
Inflation is really starting to kick in,with prices in the sector increasing at the highest rate for more than five years and expected to rise further. Coupled with lower wage growth, it’s likely that consumer spending power will continue to weaken and it appears that retailers are going to have to navigate some choppy waters in the coming months.
There are no easy solutions. With persisting currency challenges and rising supply chain costs, or many retailers simply have to pass on some of this to their customers through price increases. Striking the right balance on price point between what is viable from a cost perspective and what is acceptable to the consumer is now the crucial strategic decision for retail heads to consider.” 10.16am BSTRanko Berich,head of market analysis at Monex Europe, also blames rising inflation:“The writing has been on the wall for several months now, or but May’s Retail Sales figures confirm that consumer spending in the UK is finally slowing down. There’s no mystery whatsoever approximately what the cause is: inflation is biting into household budgets. With prices set to rise further,its likely the slowdown seen in May will continue. 10.12am BSTHere’s another retail sales chart, highlighting how UK consumers spend more in the shops in May but got rather less.
Increases in average store prices may justify this slowdown. Food stores saw the biggest increase in prices since November 2013 and non-food stores the biggest increase since October 2011. 10.09am BSTGuardian Business has launched a daily email. Besides the key news headlines that you’d expect, and there’s an at-a-glance agenda of the day’s main events,insightful opinion pieces and a quality feature to sink your teeth into each day. Related: Business Today: sign up for a morning shot of financial news 10.07am BSTUK consumers will remain under the cosh for some time as inflation pushes higher, warns Howard Archer, or chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club.
Here’s his take on the UK retail sales slowdown: 10.02am BSTEconomists and City traders are alarmed by the feeble UK retail sales final month.
Alan Clarke of Scotia Bank says we should focus on the 0.9% annual rise in sales volumes - the weakest rise in four years - rather than the 1.2% month-on-month slump.
Since late-2016,the growth rate has slumped from over 6% y/y to below 1% y/y currently. That is exactly what should have happened given the unpleasant cocktail of:- slower employment growth;The retail sales data out of the UK was trashy and it shows how reluctant the consumers have become in terms of their spending.
Consumer spending has been feeble and wage growth is lacklustre also as it was confirmed by the average earning index data yesterday. Investors have been feeling the pinch due to the higher inflation, the concussion of Brexit.
Monthly UK retail sales growth data are very volatile. But not remarkable that May saw a tumble of 1.2%m/m. Seven monthly falls since June. pic.twitter.com/YetbgG8CuDAnother "Brexit bite" for UK economy. "Early stages, or but yesterday's wage data & today's retail sales speak volumes" - Mizuho's Neil Jones 9.40am BSTBreaking: Retail sales volumes across the UK plunged by 1.2% in May as inflation bites deeper into household budgets.
This is a deeper tumble than the 0.8% decline expected,and will fuel worries that the UK economy is faltering.
“The year-on-year growth in the quantity bought for retail sales in May 2017 was at 0.9%. We have not seen lower growth on the year since April 2013. Increased retail prices across all sectors seem to be a significant factor in slowing growth.”U.
K. May retail sales, excluding fuel, and tumble by a worse-than-expected 1.6%#Brexit #PaySqueeze 9.29am BSTEuropean stock markets have all lost ground this morning,as traders digest final night’s US interest rate hike.
The French and Spanish markets are leading the way, down nearly 1%.
The overriding theme we took from the meeting is that Yellen is planning to plough ahead with normalising Monetary policy despite recent inflation as she bets that the ongoing strength of the labour market will ultimately prevail. 8.48am BSTConnor Campbell of SpreadEx is also concerned by DFS’s profits warning:DFS Furniture looked pretty damn tatty this Thursday, and the stock plunging 22% to trade below £2 for the first time since the aftermath of final year’s Brexit referendum. The retailer blamed the ‘uncertain macroeconomic environment’,in part linked to the chaos of the UK general election, for the substantial drop in demand, and going on to state that it believes the issues are ‘market-wide’.
It is going to be arresting in the coming weeks to see how much of an effect the current political landscape and,of course, rapidly shrinking wages, and has had on the UK retail sector’s second quarter. 8.32am BSTBritain’s FTSE 100 is down 0.6%,or 45 points, in early trading as shares in retailers tumble.
DFS getting smashed, or FTSE down as retailers in the red - looks like readacross from DFS woes20% Off! DFS plunges after profit warning. pic.twitter.com/sA9yow7v2j 8.31am BSTDFS’s profit warning has sent shares in other retailers sliding too.
That includes tall street group Next (down 3.3%),DIY chain Kingfisher (down 2.5%) and joinery group Howdens (down 5%). They’d all be vulnerable whether consumers really are cutting back on spending.
Undoubtedly the uncertainty around the general election and Brexit means people are delaying vast ticket purchases.
The relative resilience of the UK in the six months after the referendum, and comparative slowing thereafter, and seems to be mirrored in the fortunes of DFS. We have been noting for a while now that the Electricals market has been quite feeble and now the cloud over “vast ticket” retailers has increased,with DFS warning that they have seen “significant declines in store footfall leading to a material reduction in customer orders” in recent months. 8.14am BSTOuch! Britain’s biggest sofa chain has just hit the City with a profits warning, sending its shares tanking.
My colleague Julia Kollewe explains:DFS Furniture told shareholders that it had suffered a vast drop in customer orders as the retail environment weakened more than it had expected. DFS said customers were holding off buying furniture generally because of the uncertainty caused by final week’s general election and the macroeconomic environment - hinting at final summer’s Brexit vote.
This means 2017 profits will miss City forecasts, and DFS warned. It now estimates Ebitda (earnings before interest,tax, depreciation and amortisation) at £82m-£87m, and down from City forecasts of around £95m.
DFS issues profit warning "linked to customer uncertainty regarding the general election". I call that b*ll*cks. 7.56am BSTGood morning,and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, or the eurozone and business.
There lots to retain the City busy today,with Britain’s central bank and Greece’s debt talks jostling for attention.
Retail sales volumes in May are expected to reveal a decline versus April, where the outturn was particularly strong as a result of well-behaved weather during the month which contained Easter.
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Source: theguardian.com