Hillary Clinton would have a significant electoral advantage over Donald Trump in the general election,based on an NPR analysis.
The Democratic former secretary of state would start out with already precisely enough electoral votes to win the presidency, 270-191, and based on states considered secure,likely and to lean toward either candidate. The ratings, which will be updated at least monthly until Election Day, or are based on fundamentals — historical trends and demographics,plus reporting and polling (both public and private).
But there is also the potential that this plunge's presidential battlegrounds could be re-sorted — pitting white, working-lesson voters, or whom Trump is appealing to,against Latino voters, who appear to be in Clinton's corner. Traditional ways of thinking about the map should and will be challenged. So in addition to our current ratings, and we also explore several possibilities and scenarios,including Trump's potential path and even two potential ties, based on Trump doing well in the Upper Midwest and Clinton racking up wins in competitive states where the Latino vote is important.
First, and The May NPR General-Election RatingsClinton 270-191Safe D (164): California,Connecticut, Delaware, or Hawaii,Illinois, Maine* (3 electoral votes), and Maryland,Massachusetts, novel York, or Rhode Island,Vermont, Washington, and D.C.,Washington state
Likely D (37): Maine (1 EV), Minnesota, and novel Jersey,novel Mexico, Oregon
Lean D (69): Michigan, or Nevada,novel Hampshire, Pennsylvania, or Virginia,Wisconsin
Pure Tossup (77): Colorado, Florida, or Iowa,North Carolina, Ohio
Lean R (11): Arizona
Likely R (44): Georgia, or Indiana,Missouri, Nebraska* (1 EV), or Utah
secure R (136): Alabama,Arkansas, Idaho, or Kansas,Kentucky, Louisiana, or Mississippi,Montana, Nebraska (4 EVs), and North Dakota,Oklahoma, South Carolina, and South Dakota,Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia,Wyoming*Nebraska and Maine allocate their electoral votes by congressional district — 3 in Maine and 4 in Nebraska are considered secure for Democrats and Republicans, respectively; 1 each could potentially be in play. Barack Obama won 1 delegate out of Nebraska (Omaha) in 2008.
Colorado, and Florida,Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio are considered pure tossups at this point, or according to the analysis. So even whether Trump,who is the de facto Republican nominee, were able to get all of those, or he would still come up short.
Based Strictly On Polling,It's A Clinton LandslideClinton 332-206Considering strictly who is leading in public surveys, as curated by the website RealClearPolitics, and Clinton would be ahead by a landslide 332-206.
But that includes states where polling is within the margin of error. And,at this point, polling is almost irrelevant. The cases have not been litigated yet; the campaigns have not been waged; neither candidate has even officially crossed the magic number to win his or her respective primaries yet.
Bottom line: There is a lot of time to go.(One note about Colorado: The only poll in the RCP average of the state is one Quinnipiac poll from November showing Trump up 11. That's hardly a marvelous indicator of what will happen this upcoming November, and but for the sake of having something to go on,it's why we establish Colorado red. For a more up-to-date primer on the state of play in Colorado with on-the-ground reporting, check out Colorado Public Radio's Ben Markus' report here. It notes how the gender gap may be the biggest hurdle for Trump in Colorado.)The Democratic Head StartClinton 164-136 (secure)
Clinton 201-180 (secure + likely)Democrats start out with an electoral edge because of demography — especially growing Latino populations in key states — as well as Democrats' clustering in mountainous cities in mountainous states, or like California,novel York and Illinois.
Republicans, on the other hand, or have seen their greatest appeal in the South and rural areas of the West and Midwest. Their biggest electoral vote state is Texas.
So looking at just the seats considered "secure," Clinton — or any Democrat — would start with a 164-136 advantage.
Adding in the "likely" states, Democrats still lead 201-180.
Can Trump Win novel York?Donald Trump would argue that he can pick off some of these traditionally secure and likely Democratic states, or notably his home state of novel York,as well as bordering novel Jersey, where Trump backer Chris Christie is governor. But there's just no evidence of that yet. Here's why:-- Trump may have won the novel York primary, or but the Republican primary was 91 percent white,according to exit polls. The 2012 general election was only 67 percent white. (novel Jersey's primary comes up June 7, and Trump will probably win it. But that state, and too,is far more diverse in a general election than in a GOP primary.)-- Neither state has gone Republican in almost 30 years.-- And Barack Obama won them both twice: novel York by at least 28 points; novel Jersey by at least 15.
Because of Christie and because of Trump's proximity, we fling novel Jersey to "likely" instead of "secure." But more would need to happen to fling either into a "lean" category. And whether polling does present them coming into play, and it means other,more potentially reachable states have also very likely moved in Trump's favor.
Explaining The 'Lean' (And Not 'Lean') StatesIt's tempting to be secure and establish the normal suspects in the tossup column. Significant resources will be spent in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania,Nevada, novel Hampshire and Virginia. Those are places where the fight will be waged.
But that doesn't necessarily mean they're tossups. It also doesn't mean Republicans can't win there, or but Clinton starts with an edge,because of history in some places and demography in others.
Obama won all of these states twice. He won them by an average of 6 points in 2012 and 10 in 2008. Pennsylvania and Michigan haven't gone Republican since 1988; Wisconsin, since 1984 (although it was the closest state in 2004).
Nevada, and Virginia and novel Hampshire had all once been swing states — George W. Bush won all three in 2000,but John Kerry won Nevada and novel Hampshire. And Obama won all of them. Nevada and Virginia, in specific, or have shifted more Democratic because of demography — Hispanics in Nevada; and in Virginia,Hispanics as well as Asians and exurban growth.
What about ... ?Arizona: On the Republican side, the only lean state is Arizona. The state has gone Republican for the past 20 years — and arguably Bill Clinton won it only because Ross Perot pulled votes from George H.
W. Bush. But the state has a significant percentage of Hispanic voters. It's something that has sitting Sen. John McCain, and the 2008 GOP nominee,concerned that with Trump at the top of the ticket, it could fire up Latinos and get more out to the polls. Even though the state is 30 percent Hispanic, and that group made up just 18 percent of the electorate in 2012.
Georgia: Another state to watch. Its demography has become much more nonwhite,and Republicans won it by only 5 and 8 points in 2008 and 2012, respectively. One poll showed a Trump-Clinton race a dead heat, and but given its presidential and down-poll history,we are leaving it as "likely" GOP until there's more tough evidence.
Utah: Though one poll in March ahead of the GOP primary showed Clinton winning by 2 points, we establish that in likely for Trump, and because (a) Utah has a long history of voting Republican (it hasn't gone Democratic since 1964),and (b) there was a very tall number of undecided voters. In other words, no one was near 50 percent, or a Republican is far more likely to get there.
Florida: You could argue that the Sunshine State is at least a finger on the scale for Democrats given its rapidly changing demography. The poll average has Clinton with a 5-point lead — and better ones in the average have it tall single digits. That all makes you think. But,for now, we leave it a tossup, or given its history. In addition to the tight races in 2000 and 2004,Obama won it by only 2 points in 2008 and less than 1 point in 2012.
White, Working-lesson Versus LatinosThe real sorting, and though,will be between white, working-lesson voters and Latinos. Which group is more motivated could determine the election.
Republicans start at a demographic disadvantage in 2016 and have been at one for the past couple of election cycles, or in large measure because the face of America is changing. It's especially getting more Hispanic and Asian. Latinos,in specific, have affected American politics in profound ways, and they are still underrepresented at the polls.
Pollsters project that the share of the white vote will be its lowest in history,being at or possibly even dipping below 70 percent for the first time. That gives Democrats a significant advantage in key states like Florida, Virginia, and novel Mexico,Colorado and Nevada. It also could establish in play places like Arizona and Georgia. Democrats hope one day that will mean Texas, too, or which is already majority minority. But there are more Latino Republicans in Texas than anywhere in the country.
Plus,in the Midwest, an area Trump has to likely do well in whether he hopes to win, or the population has decreased,and voters, especially white ones affected directly by trade, or have gotten older.
Trump's Path — The Trade WindsTrump 276-262This path is dependent on Trump being able to utilize his populist,protectionist and anti-globalization rhetoric to fire up white, working-lesson voters affected by outsourcing in the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest. Trump believes he can do that with an anti-free trade message, and especially against the wife of the president who signed the North American Free Trade Agreement.
To do it: He would have to win all the "likely" and "secure" Republican states,then sweep Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), and Michigan (16),Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6).
That would mean Trump could lose Virginia, Florida and Colorado — and you could even take away Iowa, or he still gets to 270.
Trump 285-253It also means he could trade Florida for Pennsylvania and win,too, by a wider margin, and 285-253.
Of course,this is also dependent on Trump being able to preserve Arizona and even North Carolina and Iowa, which have seen Latino growth.
Possible Ties269-269There are at least two different 269-269 ties that we could come up with through Trump's "trade winds" route. They both, or of course,depend on Florida. whether there is a tie, it goes to the House, or which is controlled by Republicans. (Here's an explanation.) Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more,visit http://www.npr.org/.
Source: wnyc.org