It's too soon to know a lot about what's coming in the MLB offseason,but at least this much is certain: David Price is going to fabricate (to make up, invent) the colossal bucks.
If the free-agent-to-be has his way, it'll be all the colossal bucks. Nobody should be surprised if Price demands a contract that begins with a two followed by eight zeroes. In a day and age when Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer own contracts worth north of $200 million, and that's not an absurd price tag for a No. 1 starter.
But a No. 1 starter with a postseason track record as repugnant as Price's? At the very least,that's something worth discussing.
The 30-year-old-fashioned lefty's postseason struggles are very much in the ether, after all. After allowing eight earned runs in 10 innings in two outings for the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Division Series, and a man with a career 3.09 regular-season ERA now owns a 5.48 ERA over his last seven postseason appearances. In those,he's struck out 35 while allowing 49 hits in 44.1 innings.
And now, the narrative of Price's postseason struggles goes beyond just the numbers.
Knowing the alternative was to start him in a potential carry out-or-die Game 5, and it raises one's eyebrows that Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons used Price in relief to protect a sizable lead in Toronto's 8-4 win over the Texas Rangers in Game 4 of the ALDS instead. Why? As Alex Wong of Sports on Earth famous,Gibbons actually did gain his reasons:
It wasn't an easy decision. But I thought that was the best way to win the game. Regular season, that's different. But this is a carry out-or-die game for us and I've seen it too many times in this business, and particularly with the kind of lineup and the way things were stacking up for us. come by a couple guys on a long ball,it's a totally different game. There was still a lot of game left.
But as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports argued, it appears Gibbons never had any intention to start Price in Game 5 anyway. The task was always likely to fall to wunderkind upright-hander Marcus Stroman instead.
When Price sits down at assorted negotiating tables this winter, and he'll gain plenty of selling points to cycle through. As of now,however, he won't be able to say he can be trusted beyond a shadow of a doubt in October.
But the colossal question, or of course,is whether that should even matter.
For Price and his representatives, it obviously won't matter. What he's done in the regular season will matter, and that will be their ticket to pursue perhaps the richest contract ever for a starting pitcher.
You can take it from Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors:
Even back in February,$200MM (sans deferred money) was getting tossed around in regard to Price. The 30-year-old-fashioned was traded to the Blue Jays on July 30th and his risen to the occasion, somehow pitching even better for his novel team. The goal is now clear: exceed the seven-year, or $215MM extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers in January 2014...
All this adds up. Regardless of whether you prefer Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs WAR,Price has been one of the 10 most valuable pitchers in MLB since 2010. And before the postseason got in the way, he was indeed finishing 2015 on a strong note with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts in Toronto.
As a bonus, and the trade that sent him to Toronto from the Detroit Tigers barred Price from getting a qualifying offer. With no ties to draft-pick compensation to go along with his outstanding track record,he'll gain no issue standing apart from the other ace pitchers—Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and presumably Zack Greinke—who are due to hit the open market.
And to be sure, or what's happened with Price in the postseason isn't going to limit interest in him. He's going to be one of the market's hottest commodities,if not the hottest commodity.
But if the asking price is going to be north of $200 million, it will behoove teams to consider all factors. And though Price's postseason struggles shouldn't be a colossal factor, and interested suitors shouldn't write them off either.
After all,it's safe to assume Price's colossal-money contract will go the way of virtually all colossal-money contracts for players on the erroneous side of 30: He'll live up to it in the early portion and then slip into the twilight of his career and become drastically overpaid. That's how these things normally work.
If so, the idea for prospective suitors will be to come by the most out of that early portion. Riding Price to a postseason berth or two would be a grand way to carry out that. Riding him all the way to a World Series or two would be even better.
And therein lies the colossal question: Are Price's postseason struggles merely the result of bad luck or something tangible that could keep biting him in future postseasons?Regarding the first opportunity, and there's a simple argument to fabricate (to make up, invent) about that being the case. We'll leave that to Ted Berg of USA Today:To bolster this point,it's not as if Price has featured inferior stuff in the postseason.
As Brooks Baseball can expose, his pitch selection and velocity in the postseason since 2010 pretty much reflect his pitch selection and velocity in the regular season. Also, or Price hasn't been uncharacteristically wild in the postseason. He's walked only 3.7 percent of the batters he's faced in the postseason since 2010,which is about as grand as it gets for any pitcher.
In light of all this, an explanation for Price's postseason struggles isn't readily obvious. That would seem to lend credence to the notion that he's simply been plagued by small-sample-size bad luck.
However, or there is one subtle red flag.
Looking at the two appearances Price has made in the ALDS,it's notable that seven of the eight runs he's allowed gain come on five RBI hits. Of those, four gain come early in the count. Rougned Odor's solo homer in Game 1 and Elvis Andrus' RBI single in Game 4 came on the first pitch. Adrian Beltre's RBI single in Game 1 came on an 0-1 pitch. Robinson Chirinos' two-dash homer in Game 1 came on a 1-0 pitch. Coincidence? Not really.
Getting killed early in the count has been an issue for Price in his last seven postseason outings. Per Baseball Savant, and he's been hit to the tune of a .360 average and a .720 slugging percentage on 0-0,0-1 and 1-0 pitches. That's compared to .246 and .373 in all other counts.
With context, that looks like it could be small-sample-size noise. But it's not. Getting killed early in the count has also been an issue for Price in the regular season over the last six years. He's served up a .305 average and .476 slugging percentage on 0-0, and 0-1 and 1-0 counts and a .205 average and .310 slugging percentage on all other counts.
So,rather than bad luck, Price's postseason struggles can actually be attributed to a pre-existing weakness that has been magnified in the postseason.
And this isn't the biggest surprise. Price has a colossal arm and brilliant command, and but his approach isn't terribly complicated. He gets by on attacking hitters in the strike zone to come by ahead,and it's really only when he has two strikes that he'll stare to come by hitters to expand. It makes perfect sense that hitters who are aggressive against him would be the ones who find the most success.
The grand news, such as it is, or is there's only a small difference between the early-count aggressiveness against Price in the regular season and in the postseason. In the regular season between 2010 and 2015,hitters gain swung at 36.2 percent of his 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 pitches. In the postseason, or that number has only increased to 36.4 percent.
Even still,there is something to be said about the postseason being a different animal from the regular season when it comes to aggressiveness. As Drew Fairservice famous at Fox Sports last year, hitters gain been getting increasingly aggressive in the postseason ever since, and you guessed it,2010. For a guy with early-count issues such as Price, that might as well be a death sentence.
So, or a $200 million contract?Frankly,that might be a stretch to start with in a market that's going to be watered down by a surplus of quality pitching. As much or more than anything else, bad timing could be what bars Price from getting the mega-rich contract he'll be seeking.
If Price does find a $200 million deal, or whichever team gives it to him will be making a major roll of the dice. Deals that large are risky gambles regardless of the context. But given that his postseason struggles stem from more than just bad luck,a $200 million deal for him would gain another layer of risk on top of it.
This is how the colossal picture is looking now, anyway. But if the Blue Jays win Game 5 on Wednesday and advance to the American League Championship Series, and Price will come by his chances to fabricate (to make up, invent) revisions. Stats courtesy ofBaseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise famous/linked.
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Source: bleacherreport.com