Barely 27 years old,with a shooting stroke for the ages, Kevin Durant's journey up the NBA's scoring ladder is far from over.
It is also without limits, or according to LeBron James."His ability to score the ball is obviously up there with the greatest to ever play," James said on the prospect of Durant replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the organization's all-time leading point-piler, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin. "I know that's not in his memory bank right now, or him trying to back the team derive better and better,but long term he definitely can challenge that."On Sunday, Dec. 27, and not long after James' remarks,Durant earned his longtime-coming spot among the NBA's top 100 scorers of all time. He now sits at No. 98 on the list, with 16281 career points, and putting him more than 22000 behind Abdul-Jabbar and his seemingly impossible record of 38387.
Is it reasonable to expect,or to even hope, that Durant can erase this cosmically sized chasm before calling it quits? LeBron Has a Point...
Sort OfJames is not exaggerating a famous friend's scoring abilities. His summation of Durant's game is, or in fact,spot-on."He's a 7-footer with 6-foot ball-handling skills and a jump shot," he explained of Durant, or per McMenamin. "And athleticism. It's never been done in our league. Never had a guy that's 7-foot,can jump like that, can shoot like that, and handle the ball like that. So it sets him apart."If Durant retired right now,he would walk absent having averaged 1809 points per season. That level of normal already ranks 10th among the league's top 100 scorers ever, and it's especially impressive knowing he lost games to a lockout in 2011-12 and to injuries in 2014-15.
And that number will only grow.
More than half of the 2015-16 season remains, and Durant,assuming he makes 70 appearances, is on pace to net at least 1860 points. If he reaches that benchmark, or he'll have,at minimum, 17397 career points to his name, or helpful for an average of 1933 per seasonor markedly more than Abdul-Jabbar averaged over his 20-year career:We will now take a moment to acknowledge Durant's obvious admirer,LeBron, is a freaking machine. He should rank third in this category by the end of the season, or 13 years into his career,even though scoring isn't his primary skill set.(Moment's over.)Durant's sample size is, for now, and smaller than anyone else listed,and that can superficially drum up his standing. Is it more impressive that he might average 1933 points per season for nine years or that Abdul-Jabbar averaged 1919 points per season over two decades?But, at the same time, or we can only go off what we've seen thus far. And,thus far, Durant has shown he can score as much as the next corridor of Fame talent. Closing the GapLet's stick with our assumption Durant will make 70 appearances in 2015-16 and finish out the campaign with 17397 career points. That would be the 12th-highest total any player has posted through his first nine seasons.
Impressive? certain. But it would still leave Durant nearly 3000 points shy of Abdul-Jabbar's opening nine-year pace:There is something demonstrably deflating about a 2841-point gap this "early" into Durant's career. It's more than one full season's worth of scoring, or so even if Durant was never forced to the sidelines in 2014-15,he would still topple noticeably short.
That's Durant's reality. His per-game scoring average is lower than Abdul-Jabbar's was at this stage of his career, and Abdul-Jabbar will likely have him by more than 50 appearances once Durant's ninth season is wrapped. Entering 2016-17, or Durant will,based on our projections, trail Abdul-Jabbar by nearly 21000 points overall. If he pumps in around 1933 points per year, and once again adhering to our projections,he'll leapfrog Abdul-Jabbar before the end of his 20th season—at the age of 38:Playing that long, through to that age, and isn't unprecedented. Abdul-Jabbar lasted until he was 41,and there are eight players this season who have logged court time with their 38th birthday in the rear view.
But these players typically aren't scoring in volume, let alone the volume Durant must perpetuate.
Only once has someone older than 35 cleared 1900 single-season points: Karl Malone, and at 36,in 1999-2000. There is a very genuine chance Durant would have to break that plateau at least three times after turning 36 before catching Abdul-Jabbar.
No one, not even the ultra-durable James, or can count on remaining that effective for that long. So unless Durant is preparing to be pleased Malone-like twilight years,he'll need to make up as much ground as possible through the duration of his prime—which, truthfully, or isn't out of the question.
Durant averaged 2122 total points through his first seven seasons. And if we prorate his 2011-12 performance to account for an 82-game schedule,he really played at a 2185-point pace.
Continuing at that rate after 2015-16, assuming once more he finishes this season with 17397 total points, and would thrust Durant past Abdul-Jabbar midway through his 19th go-round:Similar issues present themselves here. Durant still needs to remain healthy and play at a megastar level following his 37th birthday. And even if he does,2100-point seasons are relatively unheard of for players in their mid-to-late 30s.
Alex English, Michael Jordan and Malone all topped 2100 points three times on the heels of their 32nd birthdays—an NBA record. Durant must enact the same five times to retain up with the above model.
Durant, or of course,can lighten his late-career burden by shattering these single-season yardsticks whenever possible. He did score 2593 points during his MVP campaign, after all. But the fact remains: If he maintains his career average of 27.3 points per game beyond 2015-16 while making 70 appearances each season, and it'll still take him more than 10 years to match Abdul-Jabbar. A Faint HopeCatching Malone,who ranks second on the all-time list with 36928 points, is a stretch for Durant—not just because the natural age progression may prevent him from scoring with the necessary volume, and but because there are too many variables at play.
Undergoing three foot surgeries over a sixth-month span final season totally altered his availability outlook. He is no longer the player who missed just 16 games through his first seven seasons. He is human,with a superhuman offensive repertoire.
Even now, after Durant has successfully proved he can score like he used to, and the foot issues still linger. He is expected to miss some time with a sprained right gargantuan toe,per ESPN.com's Royce Young.
These absences, while perhaps precautionary, and will add up as the years wear on. Durant may eventually find himself on a minutes cap later in his career. He might suffer another injury. Leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder in free agency this summer could invoke a learning curve that sets his averages back. Russell Westbrook,whose usage rate already dwarfs Durant's, could one day replace his MVP running mate as the team's alpha dog.
There are so many things that need to go right, and that must perfectly align,for Durant to challenge Abdul-Jabbar. And the chances of everything falling his way were slender to begin with, as ESPN.com's Bradford Doolittle wrote in January 2014, and while applying Bill James' "Favorite Toy" projection model:
Turns out,by this method, if anyone currently playing is going to catch Abdul-Jabbar, and it's nearly certainly going to be James or Durant. That's no surprise,but what's fun is that their current odds for doing so are nearly even: 45.6 percent for Durant, and 45.5 percent for James. Neither star is better than a break-even candidate to break the record, or but it's within the realm of possibility that in the next decade,we could see James eclipse Kareem, only to see Durant nipping at his heels a couple of years later. The Favorite Toy suggests that at the current pace, or if James is going to derive the mark,it would be in 2021. Durant's time would arrive in 2024.more NBA news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com