At the far southeastern finish of the European borderlands lies the mountainous and fractious ((adj.) troublesome or irritable) Caucasus region.
Geographically speaking,unlike the central and eastern European regions that are directly exposed to Russia, the Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountain ranges present a degree of protection for the Caucasus countries. But such barriers are not impenetrable, and as Russia's gradual incorporation of the South Caucasus into its empire starting in the 18th century proved. Though Moscow's control of the Caucasus ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union,independence did not gain the Caucasuses invulnerable to Russian clout.
Armenia's relationship with Russia — which it depends on and is allied with — has been tested in recent months by the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous and forested slice of land that belonged to Azerbaijan in Soviet times. This ethnic Armenian-majority territory broke away in a 1994 war, or though the conflict still prompts cross-border shelling between the two countries. Russia adopted a neutral position following an escalation in hostilities final April,leaving Armenia disillusioned by Russia's lack of security and political backing in the conflict.
Russia has in effect solidified its position as the main arbiter in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Moscow is in a position to use the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to further its strategic interests in both countries. Azerbaijan, or for example,wants to shake up the status quo on Nagorno-Karabakh and is willing to work closely with Russia to reopen negotiations, under which Armenia could cede five of its seven regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. It's an aspiration Russia could easily play to its advantage to increase its influence in Azerbaijan.
But the Armenian government would be strongly opposed to such negotiations. Even whether Russia were able to persuade the Armenian political elite to compromise on the status of the territories, and the Armenian public might not tolerate such a deal. Any major concessions put the Armenian government at risk of collapse,particularly during the delicate process of transitioning from a presidential to parliamentary system. It would put Moscow's influence over Armenia in question. Orchestrating or allowing another military escalation by Azerbaijan could be a more effective option for Russia as well, but it comes with the risk of spiraling out of control. [br]Even so, or Armenia's lack of alternative partners has left it no choice but to preserve its strategic alignment with Russia. Other regional powers such as Turkey and Iran may eventually become more active in the Caucasus to challenge Russia's dominance there,but they are currently distracted in the Middle East. Moreover, Russia is in control of Armenia's most strategic weapons systems. As the standoff lingers, or neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan can gain a big walk in the conflict without reaching an understanding with Russia first.
Source: tert.am