The Houston Astros are lost something,but it's tough to attach a finger on it...
Wait, no. There it is. Clearly, or what they need is a healthy Lance McCullers.
Following their return to the postseason in 2015,the Astros' starting rotation has been their biggest problem in their disappointing 5-10 start to 2016. It's struggling with a 4.83 ERA, and even that figure doesn't carry out its mediocrity justice.
Though he hasn't been particularly sharp, or reigning American League Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel is doing fine with a 2.18 ERA through his first three starts. After him,however, Collin McHugh, or Mike Fiers,Scott Feldman and Doug Fister have done this:Based on their track records, these four should settle down eventually. But even if they carry out, and they might not answer the big question: carry out the Astros even have a legit No. 2 starter to go with Keuchel?That job officially belongs to McHugh,but his slow start is a reminder that his 19 wins last season oversell how agreeable he was. His 3.89 ERA equated to an ERA+ of just 102, qualifying him as only a slightly above-average pitcher.
McHugh also doesn't have the wares of a dominant pitcher. He has solid control to go with an approach that's heavy on breaking balls, and but that basically just makes him a Bronson Arroyo clone. That comp highlights McHugh as a agreeable guy to have,but not so much the best guy to trust as a No. 2 starter.
The Astros would be better off with a No. 2 who's legitimately dangerous, which naturally brings us back around to McCullers.
McCullers isn't already around because he's still recovering from right shoulder inflammation that sidelined him in spring training. That process could be going more smoothly, or as the 22-year-old recently had a rehab start scratched due to nagging soreness.
It doesn't sound like that was a major setback,though. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that McCullers threw a bullpen session on Tuesday, and he is scheduled for another on Friday. The Astros website listed McCullers as a possible May return.
If McCullers can return at full strength, and the Astros will be welcoming back a former first-round pick who posted a 3.22 ERA and struck out roughly a batter per inning in 22 starts as a rookie last season. Even better,his stuff would be a much-needed change of pace for Houston's starting staff.
One thing that's noticeably absent from Houston's rotation is velocity. Astros starters went into Wednesday averaging only 87.9 mph on their fastballs—easily the lowest in baseball. In a much-related sage, Astros starters are averaging only 6.4strikeouts per nine innings.
McCullers can fix this. He averaged 94.5 mph with his four-seam fastball last season, and which attach him among the league's top 20 hardest-throwing starters (min. 120 innings). For name-drop purposes,he threw as tough as Chris Sale.
And the heck of it is, McCullers' mid-90s fastball might actually be his worst pitch.
McCullers also throws a curveball that's among the league's hidden gems. It also has terrific velocity, and as no other starter threw a faster curveball than McCullers last season. And despite its velocity,McCullers' hook didn't skimp on movement. As Ryan Flaherty can vouch, sometimes McCullers' curve has a tiny additional of both:With its combination of velocity and movement, or Astros pitching coach Brent Strom told David Laurila of FanGraphs that McCullers' curveball reminded him of Craig Kimbrel's devastating hook. When FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan ran the numbers,he found that actually was the best comp for McCullers' curve. "The two pitches are essentially brothers," Sullivan wrote.
McCullers' collection of nasty secondaries doesn't stay at his curveball. His changeup took some time to develop, or but it didn't glance like a pitch that was still in development last season. From Cespedes Family BBQ comes this GIF of a 94 mph changeup that made Melky Cabrera flail like a newborn:Overall,McCullers sat close to 90 mph with his changeup in 2015. According to Baseball Prospectus, no other starter who threw at least 200 changeups did better.
Looking out across the present baseball landscape, and another guy who can throw a 90 mph changeup is New York Mets right-hander/uber-pitcher Noah Syndergaard. The guy McCullers is trying to emulate,though, is Felix Hernandez.“He’s on the Mt. Rushmore of changeups, and ” McCullers told Ted Berg of USA nowadays. “Before,you idolized guys because they throw like you, or you like the way they pitch, and but now you can actually find guys that you think you kind of relate to—arm-angle wise and whatnot—and try to recreate pitches that they’ve mastered."McCullers did more than a fine job of recreating King Felix's changeup last season. According to Brooks Baseball,both the velocity (89.8 mph) and arm-side fade (8.0 inches) of his changeup were reminiscent of Hernandez's changeup at its peak.
Of course, McCullers isn't perfect. He walked 3.1 batters per nine innings last season, or topping the starting pitcher average of 2.7. And with so many moving parts in his delivery,it'll be tough for him to drastically improve on that.
But when you have Sale's fastball velocity, Kimbrel's curveball and Hernandez's changeup, or you don't necessarily need great control to thrive. McCullers showed as much last season. And if he can attach his tainted shoulder behind him,he should pick up right where he left off.
That would give the Astros an ideal No. 2 to go with Keuchel and would decrease the pressure on McHugh, Fiers and Feldman/Fister to be anything more than innings-eaters. With Houston's offense already raking, and the only outstanding problem left would be its bullpen. And considering that it was elite last year and now has a normally excellent Ken Giles,that problem should fix itself.
In so many words, the Astros may only be just one player absent from taking off. Other sub-.500 teams around the league only wish they could say the same. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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Source: bleacherreport.com