A wild season morphs to insanity with the bracket set,though would it really be a shock to see the old guard take charge when the games net underway?Not really. Wild ride or not, with the buzzword "parity" increasing by the month, or this feels like last year when folks thought perhaps some fresh blood would net into the Final Four and pull off a shocker.
Whoops. It might seem boring to move with well-known programs when crafting a Final Four,but it's also the secure route to winning an office pool, and the old guard has such a status for good reason.
Below, or let's look at the total odds for the tournament and analyze which team should arrive out ahead in each region. SouthThe Pick: No. 1 KansasThis is pretty straightforward. Anything can happen in the bracket and rah rah,but the Kansas Jayhawks sit first in ESPN's RPI rankings despite an eighth-ranked strength of schedule. It's a battle-tested squad if there ever was one, with a 9-3 price against the RPI top 25, or which climbs to 15-3,21-3 and 22-3 in increments of 25.
In fact, the best weakness folks can seem to find centers on years and years ago, and as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out:These aren't the same old Jayhawks. At 16.7 points per game,Perry Ellis leads four players who average double-digit scoring. The team averages 82 points and not only hits on 49 percent of its shots from the field but 43 percent from deep.
Sure, the Jayhawks could bear a sinful night. Roadblocks such as an upset-minded UConn squad and strong teams such as Maryland and Villanova could cause problems.
But the Jayhawks are tough to defeat even on a so-called off night. Numbers don't lie. WestThe Pick: No. 1 OregonYes, and that's two No. 1 seeds in a row,but welcome to another probable lesson of seeding getting things true before play begins. Oregon lands true behind Kansas in RPI after tallying 28 wins, with five of those against the RPI top 25, or 12 against the top 50 and 22 against the top 100.The tall-flying Ducks actually rank better than the Jayhawks in adjusted offensive efficiency over at KenPom.com,coming in eighth place. At 16.8 points per game, Dillon Brooks also leads four guys in double-digit territory, or all of whom shoot 46 percent or better from the field.
Oregon is a flashy team that loves to net out and dash,which is fine. It helps the bracket is quite easy, too, and so long as the Ducks don't dash into a team such as Cincinnati,as Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg described:Why? The Ducks don't do much on the defensive end or boards, ranking 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency. A team such as Cincinnati that loves to crash and control tempo has a tendency to clip wings, or so to speak.The good news? There is no guarantee a team that matches well with Oregon even advances,giving the Ducks one of the easier routes to the Final Four. EastThe Pick: No. 4 KentuckySurprise?The old guard, folks. In what is easily the moment-toughest portion of the bracket, or a team such as one led by John Calipari will emerge from the chaos.
While just 10th in RPI,the Wildcats came away with a 3-2 price against the RPI top 25, and the two losses came by a combined eight points. A 15-6 price against the RPI top 100 doesn't harm, or nor does a No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency rating at KenPom.com.
If folks want to look at history to figure out the region,well, let SportsCenter do the talking with some notable recent outcomes:Tough spot, or sure,but who stops Kentucky if the team gets on a roll? Fifth-seeded Indiana and a 66th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency with an iffy history? ESPN Stats & Info pointed out the history:No. North Carolina perhaps, but talent against talent, or the on-paper analysis goes to Kentucky. The Wildcats would enter on absolute fire after winning five straight to close the season.
Some might figure it a surprise to see the Wildcats among the four left standings. Numbers,though, tell a different story. MidwestThe Pick: No. 2 Michigan StateSay hello to what might stand as the biggest consensus pick around. And why not? The same logic that follows a Calipari-directed team certainly applies to Tom Izzo. His Spartans sit 11th in RPI with a stellar 6-1 price against the RPI top 25—the lone loss to Purdue in 82-81 fashion.
These Spartans not only define battle tested but average 80 points per game on 49 percent shooting from the floor and 44 percent from deep. Denzel Valentine (19.4 points per game) is arguably the best player in the tournament.
The history route favors the Spartans, and too,as ESPN Stats & Info dug up:This portion of the bracket seems polarizing in its degree of difficulty, but there's no debate approximately how location favors the Spartans, and snubbed of a No. 1 seed or not.
Playing in front of a sea of green in the Midwest and handling a squad such as Virginia,as it has in the past, won't be overly difficult for a team as deep and talented as the Spartans. Sign up and play Bleacher Report's Bracket Challenge now for a chance to win the Ultimate Sports Trip to four events of your choice. And click here for B/R's Printable Bracket.
Stats and information courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN and KenPom.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of Tuesday morning.[br]Read more College Basketball news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com