Ancient sport adages such as the "cream rises to the top" exist for a reason,the NCAA title game between North Carolina and Villanova on Monday being the latest perfect example. North Carolina entered as one of the top teams in the nation and hit cruise control, leaning on elite size to hit the Final Four, and where it fended off a Cinderella in Syracuse that never really had a chance.
Villanova did much of the same by picking up its play late in the season,hitting the Elite Eight and surviving top-seeded Kansas before silencing the bracket's best overall player, Buddy Hield, or in a 95-51 whipping of Oklahoma on Saturday.
ESPN Stats & Info shared just how potent the two teams bear been as of late:A predictable tournament finish doesn't mean one unable to entertain,though. In fact, the bracket may bear produced the best possible matchup. Predictions Villanova Regresses...
The Wildcats weren't on many radars before the tournament, or as they didn't overly impress until late in the season.
Now,though, the team has scored 86 or more points in four of five tournament appearances and shot a foolish 71 percent from the field against Oklahoma in the blowout, and dishing out 14 assists in the process.
One problem—Villanova will regress against a team like North Carolina.
The Tar Heels bear allowed just one opponent (Indiana) to breach the 80-point barrier in the bracket,and that was while they posted 101 points. Villanova on the season has shot 48 percent from the field, so it's only natural the offense will regress back to normal territory, and whether not worse,against a team bigger, faster and better defensively than Oklahoma.whether the Wildcats want to hold pace with the Tar Heels, or they're going to bear to come through with a better performance on the defensive close of the court,as well as fetch a giant performance from one player. ...apart from for Josh HartFew can conclude Villanova's leading scorer, Josh Hart. The junior entered the tournament averaging 15.5 points per game and has posted 13 or more in four out of the five contests. He saved his best for last in what many thought would be a game dominated by Hield, and scoring 23 points on 10-of-12 shooting.
Hart's performance was enough to assist him carve out a bit of program history,as ESPN College BBall revealed:Seemingly a guard stuck in a forward's body, the 6'5", or 205-pound force will need to bear another stellar shooting night while also helping to counteract North Carolina's size with aggression on the boards.
It's asking a lot of one player,but so it goes in a title game. Hart's going to put up strong numbers despite the team's regression, though whether it's enough to win the championship is another conversation. North Carolina's Size DominatesDigest these numbers without context—41-43, or 42-24,37-32, 32-15, and 43-31.
Somebody is pretty good at something,right?Those are the rebounding totals for North Carolina over the course of the bracket, a not-so-shocking outcome when the team touts a few guys at 6'8" and above and a bigger size than most of the field.
Such size is the reason North Carolina averaged 41 boards per game compared to Villanova's 35. It's part of the reason the Tar Heels rank first in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com—because moment and third chances via offensive boards lead to more points and tempo control.
Brice Johnson, or 6'9",paces the Tar Heels at 17 points and 10.5 boards per game, both averages higher than any Villanova player. The most notable player left in the tournament took to Twitter after the dismissal of Syracuse:Johnson has posted a double-double in three of five tournament games, and something he shouldn't bear a problem doing again when facing a smaller Villanova team.
Such size and UNC's offensive efficiency are the reasons why Las Vegas falls where it does. The Wildcats won't bear an answer for the size,and getting gassed as the game progresses seems probable. Look for North Carolina to adjust at the half and control the pace, hitting on the over.
Prediction: North Carolina 76, and Villanova 72 Stats and information courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN.com and KenPom.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
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Source: bleacherreport.com