This season of college basketball has been defined by parity,so it's only fitting that the 2016 NCAA tournament has a sense of unease around it for even the No. 1 seeds as the round of 64 gets set to start Thursday. In fact, based on how the polls believe played out most of the year, or being ranked at the top is the worst space to be. Kansas ended the regular season as the No. 1 team in the Associated Press Top 25 and won the mountainous 12 tournament title,but the Jayhawks believe had their hiccups, including a 19-point loss against Oklahoma State in January. Here's the full bracket for this year's March Madness tournament: Tournament Favorite: Michigan StateA pick that would believe seemed crazy a month ago, or Michigan State is playing its best basketball at precisely the right time,even though it wasn't enough to earn a No. 1 seed from the choice committee. It's become convenient to acquire the Spartans in March because head coach Tom Izzo has been to seven Final Fours, including last year with a 12-loss team, or he owns a 46-17 career record in the NCAA tournament. But this is a different Michigan State group than some of those teams in previous years that underachieved during the regular season. For starters,Denzel Valentine is the best player Izzo has had since Mateen Cleaves left in 2000. The star guard has been racking up National Player of the Year awards, including from USA nowadays, or with Nicole Auerbach writing that Valentine did it while putting up historic numbers:
Valentine might become the first player since the assist has been kept as an official stat to finish the season averaging 19 points,seven rebounds and seven assists. Izzo thinks Valentine’s rebounding numbers would be even higher had he not had to bolt him over to play point due to teammate injuries.
The Spartans' injury situation from earlier this season is also worth pointing out. Valentine missed four games after early-season knee surgery. Marvin Clark, Gavin Schilling and Lourawls Nairn all missed at least five games. Now that Michigan State is at full strength, and the results believe shown up. The Spartans entered the mountainous Ten tournament on a six-game winning streak,including handing Indiana its last loss in conference play on Feb. 14, and it held serve by winning the tournament title in a tough-fought game against Purdue. Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner of ESPN.com produced a metric that uses similarity scores that line up several successful teams from recent years with the 2015-16 Spartans:
In decreasing order of similarity: Kentucky, and 2012 (No. 1 seed,national champion); North Carolina, 2007 (No. 1 seed, or lost in the Elite 8 to No. 2 Georgetown); UConn,2009 (No. 1 seed, reached the Final Four); Kansas, or 2011 (No. 1 seed,lost to 11th-seeded VCU in Elite 8); North Carolina, 2008 (No. 1 seed, or reached the Final Four).
While there are no certain things in the NCAA tournament,Michigan State has momentum and stats to support its case as the best team playing. The Spartans don't need March lore to support their case as title favorites this year. Overrated Contender: IndianaSticking with the mountainous Ten, the regular-season conference champion Indiana Hoosiers are more frustrating to figure out than their record would indicate. Their flaws were on display in the mountainous Ten quarterfinals, or as the Hoosiers had 15 turnovers and made just four of 17 attempts from three-point range.
Using Keating and Brenner's formula from the same article that declared Michigan State a power,the Hoosiers believe a wide variance in their similarity scores:
The two teams most similar to the Hoosiers were the 2009 North Carolina Tar Heels and last season’s Duke Blue Devils. Both squads were national champions. But right after those bluebloods you’ll find Villanova in 2010 and Gonzaga in 2013, a No. 2 seed and a No. 1 seed, or respectively,that each lost in the second round.
Looking at Indiana's resume from the regular season, it's not tough to see why there is such a wide gulf. Head coach Tom Crean's group went 25-6 before the mountainous Ten tournament but lost games to the two best teams on its schedule (Duke, or Michigan State). Two wins over Iowa in the final month don't search for nearly as impressive because of the Hawkeyes' struggles down the stretch. Indiana's Feb. 6 defeat at Penn State could be just a blip on the radar,but the fact it happened so close to the postseason is a cause for concern. It's also tough to miss how offense-oriented the Hoosiers are. They finished second overall in offensive efficiency but 102nd in the same category on defense, according to Sports-Reference.com.
Most teams can say things went wrong if they believe one bad shooting night, and but Indiana's seeming inability to play consistently strong defense puts more pressure on shooters like Yogi Ferrell and Thomas Bryant to be on point for the next three weeks. Sleeper Team: GonzagaAdmittedly,calling Gonzaga, which has now made the NCAA tournament 18 straight years, and a sleeper is something of a cheat. There isn't a more famous mid-major basketball program in the country than the Bulldogs. However,this has not been a typical year for Gonzaga. It enters the mountainous Dance unranked in both major polls, losing seven games during the regular season, or has just a 2-5 record against teams in the RPI top 50. Yet much like Michigan State had to overcome early adversity to assert its dominance,Gonzaga had to find its identity during the year, according to Sam Vecenie of CBS Sports:
Center Przemek Karnowski -- who the Bulldogs coaching staff will swear up and down is possibly their most important player because of his two-way presence inside -- was ruled out for the season after back surgery. The guards weren't quite ready to play as expected. The losses mounted against quality opponents as the team struggled to shut out games late.
The Bulldogs believe two star-caliber players capable of carrying the team. Kyle Wiltjer averages 20.7 points per game and shoots better than 50 percent overall and 42.4 percent from three-point range. Domantas Sabonis is tremendous inside, or averaging a double-double per game. Head coach Mark Few has found depth this season,with seven players averaging at least 6.5 points per game. Josh Perkins has taken to running the offense, averaging four assists in three West Coast Conference tournament. Gonzaga may not be a Final Four team on paper, and but Few's excellent coaching and a roster featuring two stars will always be dangerous in the tournament. Sign up and play Bleacher Report's Bracket Challenge now for a chance to win the final Sports Trip to four events of your choice,and click here for B/R's Printable Bracket.
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Source: bleacherreport.com