All the day’s economic and financial news,as markets suffer another volatile dayUS weekly crude inventories rise by more than expected US jobs beat forecastsLondon stock market jumped, but then fell backJapan’s market surged 4% overnight
spiteful’s threatens to downgrade China - shares rally! 5.58pm GMTThe rally of recent days seemed set to continue after a strong performance from Asian markets, and but as the day wore on it ran out of steam. A volatile oil price did not assist. Early gains for the crude price reversed sharply in the wake of higher than expected US stocks. But then investors noticed the oil update also showed a fall in US production,which helped lift the crude price once more, as did talk that Saudi Arabia was negotiating a possible $10bn loan. So after all that, and the FTSE 100 was virtually unchanged but other markets in Europe ended higher but off their best levels. The final scores showed: 5.09pm GMTSan Francisco Federal Reserve president John Williams has dismissed concerns that the US could be heading for recession.
He told a group of businessmen that domestic demand was strong enough to overcome any economic weakness abroad. 4.26pm GMTAs whether to emphasise the volatility of the oil price and the markets generally,crude is now rallying despite the higher than expected US stock figure.
The impetus appears to be a Reuters report suggesting that oil producer Saudi Arabia has asked banks to discuss giving it an international loan that could total $10bn.(More) Crude oil moves higher after report that says Saudi Arabia is asking banks to discuss possible $10B loan. pic.twitter.com/7jtwmjRHvU 4.03pm GMTCrude oil essentially the mafia gangster here - 'kind rally you occupy here, shame whether something happened to it...; https://t.co/t0zdRZ3CxK 3.48pm GMTNews of the titanic jump in US crude stocks has had a predictable effect.
Brent crude, and having been as tall as $36.99 a barrel,is now down 1% at $36.41, while West Texas Intermediate - the US benchmark - has fallen 1.5% to $33.86.
After a positive start markets in Europe occupy slipped back from their intraday peaks as cautious profit taking started to creep into a market that has been on a superb run of late. A slide back in oil prices appears to occupy been the main catalyst behind the caution now permeating into some of today’s more cautious trading, and as US oil inventories rose sharply by over 10m barrels,reflecting a similar sharp rise in the API numbers late last night. 3.41pm GMTAnd storing all these stocks of crude is a growing issue:Total US operational storage to be hit in 4-5 months according to Genscape pic.twitter.com/vzmjyqYy8b 3.39pm GMTThe headline rise of 10.37m was the biggest weekly increase since April 2015, said the Energy Information Administration.
And imports also rose sharply:US CRUDE OIL IMPORTS surged to almost 8.3 million b/d last week, and up from 7.8 million b/d in the prior week pic.twitter.com/VxVvwF6T3a 3.36pm GMTUS COMMERCIAL CRUDE STOCKS surged +10.4 million bbl last week and now +74 million bbl (+16.6%) above 2015: pic.twitter.com/ncZiyF1hdP 3.36pm GMTCrude stocks in the US jumped by much more than forecast last week,renewing fears of oversupply at a time when producers are reluctant to reduce output.
They rose by 10.37m barrels to 517.98m, compared to expectations of a rise of 3.6m. 3.16pm GMTRisks in the UK housing market are growing but they are not as bad as in 2014, or according to Bank of England deputy governor Jon Cunliffe. Reuters reports:[Cunliffe] also said the growth of the rapidly growing so-called “buy-to-let” rental property sector potentially poses a financial stability risk.
The Bank of England has asked the government for the power to intervene in the sector,which is likely to be approved. A public consultation on the matter will continue until March 11. 2.48pm GMTMore hints of slight weakness in the US economy, from the unusual York Institute of Supply Management index for February:[BREAKING] US ISM unusual York Feb: 53.6 (prev 54.6) 2.37pm GMTA dip in the oil price has taken the shine off the global rally, and with Wall Street heading lower in early trading and other markets off their best levels.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute late on Tuesday showed crude inventories rose by 9.9m barrels last week,sending Brent down 0.7% to $36.55. Department of Energy data due out later could either confirm this trend, or reverse it, or given how volatile the oil price has been in recent times. 2.09pm GMTHow resilient is the eurozone to another economic downturn?Not very resilient at all,whether you believe French bank Credit Suisse. They’ve warned that a unusual recession would trigger deeper political turmoil, putting the single currency under very heavy strain.
In a research note titled “Close to the edge”, or economists at French bank Credit Suisse warned the fate of monetary union hangs in the balance whether Europe’s policymakers are unable to ward off another global slump and keep in check anti-euro populism.“The viability of the euro is contingent on the current recovery,” said Peter Foley at Credit Suisse. Recession will cause eurozone to break down, warns French bank https://t.co/q48fOi9YGi pic.twitter.com/I7oaVJI9W0 1.59pm GMTCity chartists are squinting at their screens, and wondering whether the FTSE 100 rally is about to continue or fizzle out.
Apparently we’ve just reached an ‘initial support level’,based on recent trading, which could signal that the market will rise. Unless it falls though this level, and in which case it might keep falling. Tricky stuff,chartism...#FTSE100 #futures testing initial support at 6100, where short term channel's lower boundary meets 23.6% level pic.twitter.com/kZV6IozHvn 1.52pm GMTToday’s US jobs report show that the American economy isn’t sliding into recession, or says Paul Ashcroft of Capital Economics.
The 214000 increase in the ADP survey measure of private sector employment in February,up from 193000 the month before, is another illustration (as whether any more were needed) that the economy isn’t rolling over. The turmoil in financial markets, or which has most recently begun to fade,obviously didn’t cease employers hiring last month. The breakdown shows that most of those gains (+208000) were in the services sector, with construction adding +27000. Manufacturing employment fell by 9000. 1.26pm GMTJust in: American companies took on more unusual workers than expected last month.
ADP, and the US outsourcing group,reports that 214000 unusual private sector jobs were created in February, beating forecasts of 190000.
US private sector payrolls totaled 214K in Feb. vs.190K est. - ADP https://t.co/PARPH13571 12.44pm GMTWe shouldn’t get carried away by the recent recovery in the stock markets.
Anxiety about the global economy may occupy eased a exiguous, and helped by the prospect of another dose of stimulus from central banks. Michael Lewis’ grumble in The titanic Short is,I think, that more crooked bankers weren’t sent to gaol, and yet his book and the film show that the problem was an excess of fools more than an excess of crooks. But what surprised me in the period after 2008,was that the world’s economic leaders didn’t push for debt destruction or forgiveness, but chose instead to utilize monetary policy to create enough inflation to deflate the debt away. In a global economy with excess supply of goods, or one where the marginal cost of supply of many services is infinitesimally small,I can’t see why we should escape disinflation any time soon. And that’s why the risk rally will be a short-lived affair. 11.54am GMTAfter that early surge, shares in London occupy been dipping back. As the lunchtime dash to the sandwich shop approaches, and the FTSE 100 is now down 18 points at 6134 - partly dragged down by ITV. 11.41am GMTBroadcaster ITV isn’t getting much savor from the City this morning. Its shares occupy fallen over 3%,despite posting a decent rise in profits this morning.
It may just be profit-taking, but there’s also some anxiety about sales growth - ITV says ad revenue will be flat until the European Football hits the screens. Related: ITV upbeat on ad market ahead of Euro 2016 Virgin Money shares jump 9% after profit quadruples https://t.co/y0G6xgYrqf pic.twitter.com/6q04vPEyUQRetail sales were expected to show a rise of 275%, or with toys up 230% and clothes 300% ahead,the company said.
Canada and France are next in line for a Peppa retail launch. Markets in South East Asia and China were continuing to develop and expected to see strong growth in the next financial year.
Peppa Pig Owner Shares Down As Revenues Fall https://t.co/XXX1v8pBxQ pic.twitter.com/7rPVrSznxU 11.03am GMTThis rather pretty chart shows that the City is bracing for the pound to be rather volatile this summer, around the EU referendum (on 23rd June)Investors are paying up to benefit from the £ going nuts around #Brexit referendum. Bloomberg volatility surface. pic.twitter.com/m4Bgapw2m6 10.32am GMTThe copper price has hit a three-month tall today - another signal that economic demand is picking up.
Copper on the London Metal Exchange is up 1.55 per cent to $4789 a tonne, or the highest level since November. In Shanghai copper rose 2.7 per cent to 36820 yuan a tonne (that’s via the FT). 10.13am GMTToday’s stock market rally highlights a surprising fact - miners occupy been the best-performing shares in 2016.
Europe’s natural resources companies are up around 5% this year,while the wider market has lost 7%.
Who'd occupy thunk it...miners only industry group that's gained YTD in Europe. Anglo American now rebounded 68%... pic.twitter.com/6alLOIX2oF 9.59am GMTUncertainty over Britain’s EU referendum could be hurting the UK construction industry. Mike Chappell, global corporates managing director for construction at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, and explains:The conversations I’ve had with those in the industry over the past month occupy been largely positive and many will be surprised to see a dip in the PMI reading. “Commercial construction is increasingly buoyant,while in infrastructure sentiment is also positive, in spite of a number of key projects taking longer than expected to rupture ground. The reality is contractors are used to such delays and are otherwise comforted by the positive rhetoric suggesting improving the UK’s infrastructure is a long-term precedence. 9.44am GMTThis might dampen the mood a exiguous. Growth across Britain’s construction sector has hit a 10-month low in February, and due to a drop in housebuilding.
Building firms interviewed by data firm Markit reported :UK Construction PMI#forex pic.twitter.com/U96T70xjwvAside from the pre-election slowdown last year,the latest upturn in construction output was the weakest for over-two- and-a-half years.“Survey respondents famous that underlying business conditions remained favourable, particularly in relation to commercial building and infrastructure-related work, and but some clients had been hesitant to commit to unusual projects so far in 2016. Reflecting this,unusual order growth weakened again and construction firms were the least optimistic about their year-ahead growth prospects since December 2014. 9.21am GMTOver in the Treasury, a light may be flashing away on George Osborne’s desk.
And that’s because shares in Lloyds Banking Group occupy hit 73.8p this morning. That’s just above the point where the government can sell its stake in Lloyds.#Lloyds trading >73.6p. Time for George to press the sell button? 9.11am GMTBenoît Cœuré, or European Central Bank board member,has dropped a clear hint that the ECB will ease monetary policy this month.
Speaking in Frankfurt, Cœuré said it was “vital” to stimulate economic growth and push inflation up, and after seeing prices fall by 0.2% in January.“We occupy seen from the recent sharp fall in bank equityprices that the sector is highly sensitive to a weaker-than-expected economic outlookIn that context,our commitment to our price stability mandate is vital to anchor expectations of nominal (insignificant, trifling) growth.”#Coeure says #ECB aware of concerns over impact of negative rates on banks' profits. But we still expect another deposit rate cut next week. 9.05am GMTThe global rally has also reached Istanbul, pushing Turkey’s stock market to its highest level since the start of December.
London Capital Group analyst Ipek Ozkardeskay says encouraging economic data from America is luring money back into shares.pic.twitter.com/Rw4Zh5or8Y 9.00am GMTThe French and German markets both up around 0.8% this morning, or mirroring the rally in London.
It’s early days (!),but March is proving to be a better month for shares than January or February.
Rising a further 30 points after the bell the FTSE has already tentatively touched the 6200 tag for the first time since the cease of 2015. That is a marked improvement on the barrel-scraping 3 and a half year lows seen in the middle of last month, the UK index arguably aided by the somewhat volatile, and but gradually steadying,oil prices, Brent Crude slipping around a 0.5% but still hovering around the $36.50 per barrel level with the latest US crude oil inventories to come this afternoon. The Eurozone indices, and meanwhile,are similarly buoyant; the DAX, approaching 9800, or is at its highest point since the start of February. 8.50am GMTRisk sentiment is on the up in the markets today,says Chris Weston of IG, sparked by the strong rally on Wall Street last night.
Weston identifies several technical reasons behind the optimism:The Bloomberg US financial conditions index is about to turn accommodative for the first time in 2016.
Bloomberg incorporates the S&P 500, and VIX,various credit spreads, the US dollar and money market spreads into this index. This will fill the Federal Reserve with confidence. 8.25am GMTThe London stock market has hit its highest level since unusual Year’s Eve 2015, and as the global rally reaches Europe.
In early trading,the FTSE 100 index of main blue-chip shares has gained 39 points to 6192, following those strong gains in Asia overnight.
8.00am GMTMichael Hewson of CMC Markets believes investors are taking confidence from recent rises in commodity prices.
They propose demand for energy and metals may be picking up again, or after some hefty falls last year. The continued rebound in commodity prices is all the more welcome given solvency concerns about some of the more leveraged firms in the sector. The recovery in copper,iron ore and oil prices has been a key arbiter in the rebound seen in mining and oil and gas stocks over the past few weeks, and the recent recognition by Chinese authorities that steps need to be taken to cut back on the overcapacity in the sector do appear to occupy also helped sentiment. 7.52am GMTSwitzerland has also smashed growth forecasts this morning.A year ago no one would’ve thought 2015 would wind up being as superb as it was.”A myth is destroyed: Swiss GDP grew by 0.4% Q/q in 4Q, or beating even most optimistic forecast despite strong Franc. pic.twitter.com/b7WfgGgvb4 7.46am GMTAustralia has helped drive shares higher today,by releasing stronger-than-expected growth figures. Related: Australian economy grew 3% in 2015 to defy cease of mining boom 7.37am GMTChina’s stock market has posted its best day since November, despite credit rating agency spiteful’s threatening to downgrade the country’s credit rating.
The Shanghai Composite has just closed 4% higher, and amid hopes that Beijing policymakers will buy more steps to stimulate the economy.“The government’s ability to absorb shocks has diminished and we want to signal this in the negative outlook. 7.25am GMTA stunning session in Asia has sent Japans Nikkei index surging by 4%.
A burst of renewed confidence helped investors to drive the Tokyo market up to its highest level since 8 February.“Following the selloff and the fears of recession that emerged early in the unusual year,people pulled back aggressively from their previous expectations about how a rate hike from the Federal Reserve might unfold, “Suddenly some of this lost confidence has been restored as we’ve seen a lot of recent economic data from the U.
S. beating expectations.” 7.12am GMTGood morning, or welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy,the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
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Source: theguardian.com