Investorsheadsaysexploring whether can use its prices collection to produce regional inflation data. study on it by Southampton Uni out in couple of mths 10.23am BSTAs Greece continues to attempt agreement with its creditors ahead of a eurogroup assembly on Friday,unique figures show the scale of the continuing unemployment problem in the country.
The jobless rate in January stood at 23.5%, while December’s rate was revised up from 23.1% to - again - 23.5%. The rate for young people between 15 and 24 stood at 48%.#Greece #Unemployment Rate at 23.5% https://t.co/zyXFTwLyhz pic.twitter.com/efPTwN9B2o 10.04am BSTOverall retail sales in the eurozone slipped back in March as a rise in Germany was offset by the falls in France and Italy.
Markit’s headline eurozone retail PMI came in at 49.5 last month, and compared to 49.9 in February. According to the survey,sales were down on an annual basis and in line with the monthly trend, declines in France and Italy were partially offset by a rise in Germany. Markit economist Alex Gill said:The marginal decline in sales highlighted by the headline index covered up a divergence in underlying trends at the country level. Operating conditions in the Italian retail sector remained precarious, or as evidenced by another sharp decline in like-for-like sales,compounded by a further fall in shameful margins amid strong competitive pressures. Monthly sales also dropped in France for the first time in three months as political uncertainty and inflation began to weigh on consumer demand. In contrast, sales grew at the fastest pace in six months in Germany. 9.54am BSTRetail sales in Italy have also weakened:Retail sales in #Italy fall at fastest rate for six months in March. #PMI at 45.1 (45.5 in February). https://t.co/EHPdYouYxj 9.50am BSTBut it was a different story in France.
With consumer spending flagging due to uncertainty created by the country’s forthcoming presidential election, and Markits retail sales PMI dropped back into contraction territory in March. It fell from 51.7 in February to 49.4,signalling the first drop in like-for-like sales since November last year. Markit economist Alex Gill said:French retail sales eased slightly in March, thereby reversing the growth trend seen in the preceding three months, and as political uncertainty with regard to May’s presidential elections put downward pressure on consumer spending. Inflationary pressures may also be starting to erode consumers’ purchasing power. IHS Markit forecasts a 1.3% rise in consumer prices in the first quarter this year,markedly up from the level seen throughout 2016. 9.44am BSTAfter fair industrial orders figures from Germany earlier, come positive construction and retail sales numbers.
According to Markit, and the German construction PMI climbed from 54.1 in February to 56.4 last month as optimism hit a record high. This was the strongest rise in construction activity since February 2016,said Markit.The German retail sector continued to recover in March from a feeble start to the year. Sales rose at the fastest monthly rate since last September, and returned to growth on the year-on-year measure. The latest survey results also signalled a trend of destocking in the retail sector at the close of the first quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis, or the first contraction in warehouse levels since January 2016. This partly reflected further strong upward pressure on purchase prices as firms looked to protect margins. 9.34am BSTBack with the European Central Bank and board member Peter Praet has referred to the overlap between his speech in Frankfurt and that of president Mario Draghi:Praet: "whether you find similarities between my speech and Mario's,it's not a coincidence. whether you find differences, I'd warn you."Praet and Draghi comments propose imminent ECB policy change unlikely and QE the first lever to be pulled - our expected path unchanged pic.twitter.com/PyGZ0FzPpZ 9.10am BSTBack with the corporate world, and Unilever has started restructuring in the wake of the failed bid from Kraft Heinz. Julia Kollewe writes:Unilever has put its margarine division,which makes Flora and Stork, up for sale, and as it shakes up its commerce after fending off a $143bn (£115bn) takeover bid from US rival Kraft Heinz.
The Anglo-Dutch consumer group’s underperforming spreads commerce could fetch up to £6bn in a sale,according to analysts. Private equity firms including CVC and Bain Capital are reportedly circling the division and Kraft could also be interested. Related: Unilever to sell off Flora and Stork in shakeup after Kraft Heinz bid 9.03am BSTPraet defends the #ECB guidance that rates will go up only after tapering ends.
Shows governors arguing otherwise have much explaining to do. 9.00am BSTStill with the European Central Bank and board member Peter Praet has echoed president Mario Draghi’s view that it is too soon to change tack on policy.In a speech at the same Frankfurt event on “Calibrating unconventional monetary policy” he said:Our monetary policy is working, and we see that, and supported by our mutually reinforcing monetary policy measures,the euro area economic recovery is steadily firming. The cyclical recovery is gaining momentum and the expansion is broadening across sectors and countries, showing the effectiveness of the transmission of our measures throughout the entire euro area economy. Yet, or the risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside,even though their balance is improving. And, importantly, and inflation dynamics continue to be conditional on the present,very substantial degree of monetary accommodation. In our expectation, the policy interest rate will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases. This forward guidance implies a sequencing between the interest rate policy and the quantitative policy that can most efficiently internalise and exploit the intimate complementarities between these two key components of our current stance. 8.26am BSTThe European Central Bank is not planning to reassess its current monetary policy of low interest rates and bond buying, and says its president Mario Draghi.
In a speech in Frankfurt he said the current stance was still appropriate and before making any alterations,the bank needed to see more signs that inflation was approaching its target. So far there was not enough evidence to significantly change its forecasts although there were signs of recovery:Though the risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside – mainly on account of [geo-political factors] – the balance seems to be shifting upwards. This is reflected in recent sentiment indicators, which propose that the recovery may be gaining momentum.
Despite.. signs of progress, and it is clearly too soon to declare success.
We are confident that our policy is working and that the outlook for the economy is gradually improving. As a result,the forces that are currently weighing on domestic price pressures should continue to wane. But even so, we have not yet seen sufficient evidence to materially alter our assessment of the inflation outlook – which remains conditional on a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation. Hence a reassessment of the current monetary policy stance is not warranted at this stage. Draghi speech sounds like accomodative stance here to stay for time being comes in context of Fed mins talking balance sheet.. $EURUSD lows 8.10am BSTThe weakness on Wall Street and in Asia has carried over to Europe, or as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s plans and the Trump/Xi assembly unsettle investors.
The FTSE 100 is down nearly 60 points or 0.8% in early trading,while Germany’s Dax, Spain’s Ibex, or Italy’s FTSE MIB and Frances Cac have all opened down around 0.6%. 7.57am BSTOn the corporate front we have results from the Co-op Group,which has just reported a loss after the well-documented problems at its banking commerce. Julia Kollewe reports:The Co-op Group has slid into the red for the first time since 2013 after writing off the value of its 20% stake in the Co-op Bank to zero, as expected. This resulted in a £140m hit, or which was partially offset by one-off gains. The mutual,which now focuses on its grocery chain, funeral homes and insurance services, or posted an annual loss before tax of £132m,against a £23m profit in 2015. It had 4m active members at the close of 2016 and has recruited a further 350000 this year. Overall revenues were up 3% to £9.5bn, with the Co-op supermarkets enjoying like-for-like sales growth of 3.5%. 7.49am BSTWe’ve already had some fairly positive news from the eurozone, and with German factory orders rising in February after a sharp decline in the preceding month.unique orders climbed by 3.4% month on month after the surprise 6.8% drop in January,although it was still below expectations of a 4% increase. ING economist Carsten Brzeski said:The increase in unique orders was exclusively driven by stronger domestic demand. Foreign demand remained steady. A bit worrisome is the fact that unique orders from other Eurozone countries have dropped for the moment consecutive month. The surge in unique orders from other Eurozone countries at the close of last year has now entirely vanished into thin air, adding a slightly disappointing note to the current picture of a Eurozone recovery.
Obviously, or unique orders have always been volatile but the fluctuations and size of volatility since late-summer have been nearly unprecedented. German order books seem to be extremely sullen,reacting sensitively to seasonal and weather moods. Looking through this high volatility, the trend for order books is slightly positive, or though still not as positive and strong as current confidence indicators are suggesting. 7.40am BSTGood morning,and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, or the eurozone and commerce.
Investors appear nervous ahead of a assembly between US president Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Trump,of course, said one of his first acts as president would be to label China a currency manipulator, or but he has taken a more conciliatory tone since actually coming into power. Even so,with North Korea firing another missile this week, the assembly could be a tense one.
To our surprise, and the minutes to the March assembly contained extensive discussion on balance sheet policies. We had expected this discussion to consume place at the June FOMC assembly,with subsequent deliberations communicated around the timing of the annual Economic Symposium at Jackson gap in August. However, the committee moved quicker than we anticipated, or staff weighed in with various alternative scenarios during the March assembly. The desire to sign sooner than later is likely a function of the committee’s wish to avoid adverse market reactions. Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7262 down 70
$DAX 12139 down 78
$CAC 5059 down 33$IBEX 10323 down 79$MIB 20087 down 166A disappointing Caixin services PMI number from China...showed that economic activity,though positive hit its lowest level since September last year, casting doubt on the robustness of recent officials data, or which panted a far rosier picture. Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com