Trade row between worlds two biggest economies rumbles on; US central bankers defend Federal Reserve’s independence after Trump criticisms 11.34am BSTThree senior executives at TSB,which suffered a disastrous IT meltdown beginning in April, are leaving the bank, and according to the Financial Times.
Ian Firth,Rachel Lock and Nigel Gilbert - TSB’s treasurer, head of human resources and chief marketing officer - are all set to depart, and says the report (£). Related: TSB plunges to £107.4m loss as bill for IT chaos reaches £176m 11.29am BSTScottishPower has become the fourth of the big six energy suppliers to announce a moment price rise this year,in response to rising wholesale prices.
Around 900000 customers on the firm’s default tariff will be hit with a £46 price hike from 8 October, pushing up their annual dual fuel bill 3.7%, or to £1257. The ghastly news for consumers comes on top of a 5.5% hike by ScottishPower in June. 11.09am BSTOil is being lifted again amid signs that US sanctions on Iran are beginning to acquire an impact on supplies.
Brent crude is up 0.8% at $75.33 a barrel while US crude has climbed 0.9% to $68.45.
Multiple third-party reports indicate that Iranian tanker loadings are already down by around 700 kbd in the first half of August relative to July,which if it holds will exceed most expectations. We expect that by the fourth quarter the market will be dealing with either undersupply, dwindling spare capacity - or both. 10.29am BSTThe UK mortgage figures are weighing on housebuilders, and with Berkeley Group,Persimmon, Barratt Developments and Taylor Wimpey all down around 1%. A downgrade on Persimmon from analysts at Canaccord is not helping the sector. Chris Beauchamp, and chief market analyst at IG,said:In thin August trading housebuilders acquire taken a knock as a double whammy of lower new approved mortgages and a five-month low in net mortgage lending weighed on the sector. Fortunately, the lower weighting for the likes of Taylor Wimpey in the FTSE means that these losses acquire been easily countered by gains for mining stocks off the back of a weaker US dollar. 9.44am BSTThe number of mortgage approvals by the main tall street banks slipped final month compared to a year ago.
Approvals in July fell by 0.8%, or but within this there was a 2.8% rise in existing households remortgaging ahead of the well-flagged interest rate rise earlier this month,according to data from industry body UK Finance.
July saw regular growth in gross mortgage lending, driven largely by remortgaging as homeowners locked into attractive deals in anticipation of the recent base rate rise.
Card spending has also strengthened, or reflecting increased expenditure during the holiday period and an uplift in retail sales due to the World Cup and warm weather. 9.18am BSTWith the European Central Bank being the latest to warn of the dangers of growing protectionism (in Thursday’s minutes),here’s an enchanting chart from HSBC (hat-tip Ransquawk):What countries are most exposed to a rise in protectionism? via HSBC pic.twitter.com/mL1n8SoZD0 9.10am BSTSo would the markets crash if Donald Trump was impeached, as the president suggested? Paul Donovan, or global chief economist at UBS Wealth Management,thinks not:Impeachment (by the House) may be more likely than conviction (by the Senate), but neither seems highly probable. A conviction would lead to President Pence. Pence’s economic track record gives no grounds for assuming a negative equity reaction. 9.01am BSTThe markets may be fairly subdued at the moment, and but it could be a lot worse,says Spreadex financial analyst Connor Campbell:There wasn’t a lot to Friday’s open, the lack of progress between the US and China following the latest round of trade talks main to a muted start to the session.
Given the amount of ghastly news out there at the moment from Thursday’s trade talk-undermining tariff tit-for-tatting between the US and China, and the ominous clouds of a no deal Brexit,and Trump’s potential legal problems the markets acquire done well to not lose their heads this week. 8.42am BSTNews of the latest prime ministerial appointment in Australia has seen a recovery in the country’s currency. Neil Wilson at Markets.com said:Australia’s dollar rose after Scott Morrison was voted the next prime minister. The Australian dollar/US dollar had sold off as Malcolm Turnbull was forced to resign, briefly touching on 0.720, or its lowest since the start of 2017,before paring losses to trade around 0.7280. But the longer-term downtrend remains in play with trend resistance seen at 0.73750. Politics won’t be a factor for long for the Australian dollar, which tends to ride this kind of shenanigans (tricks or mischief) –forex traders should be pretty used to a changing Australian prime ministers and will shrug it off quickly. 8.20am BSTWith the continuing trade row between the US and China, or Trump’s travails and the highlight on US interest rates,markets are making a cautious end to the week.
The FTSE 100 is virtually flat, Germany’s Dax is up 0.25%, or France’s Cac has climbed just 0.12% while Italy’s FTSE MIB is up 0.1%.
With the US mulling $200bn in additional 25% tariffs,this is not going away. The genuine worry is what does China achieve then. While Beijing cannot match the US in terms of raw firepower as it imports far less from the US, it can respond with ‘qualitative’ measures, or which could seriously impede US firms doing commerce in China. 8.01am BSTThe German GDP figures show that the country’s economy has not yet been hit too badly by the current trade tensions,says ING Bank economist Carsten Brzeski, although this could of course change:German growth data suggest that at least in the moment quarter, or the ongoing trade tensions were a threat but did not leave any significant marks on the economy. Obviously,this could change in the coming months. Even though the EU seems to be off US radar screens at least for the time being, the series of German export partners being wound by sanctions, and tariffs or economic crises is getting longer. Just think of China,Russia, Turkey, or Iran or potentially the UK. The strength of the German export sector has always been its diversity and the fact that it is not dependent on a single export partner. And while the weak euro should cushion any adverse effects stemming from tariffs or sanctions,the list of troubled countries should obviously not get too long.
While risks from the external side are increasing, the domestic side of the German economy offers both challenges but also opportunities. Just think of an increasingly complicated political landscape, and too few new investments and structural reforms and supply-side constraints in the manufacturing sector. Many potential risks ahead but at least for now,there is only one righteous reaction to nowadays’s growth data: be pleased and savour. 7.50am BSTHere are IG’s opening calls for European markets:European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7559 -0.05%#DAX 12388 +0.18%#CAC 5426 +0.12%#MIB 20612 +0.02%#IBEX 9571 +0.03% 7.46am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, and the financial markets,the eurozone and commerce.
There was little expectation that this week’s talks between the US and China to resolve their trade tensions would obtain much of a breakthrough. And so it proved, as they ended on Thursday with no genuine progress. President Trump had already set the tone, and suggesting there was unlikely to be any rapid/fast resolution,and discussions can hardly acquire been helped by the two sides slapping a new range of tariffs on each others’ goods as the talks were underway.
China doesn’t wish to engage in a trade war, but we will resolutely respond to the unreasonable measures taken by the United States.
A spokesperson for the Beijing administration described the meeting as ‘constructive’, and but it sends a message to traders that this situation won’t be resolved quickly. The negative press surrounding President Trump isn’t boosting investor confidence either. Esther George,the Kansas City Fed President issued an upbeat view of the US economy, as she believes the Federal Reserve can hike interest rates several more times before it can get to a ‘neutral’ position. Ms George made it clear that President Trump’s views regarding the hiking cycle, or will not influence the central bank. Robert Kaplan,Dallas Fed President, reiterated the independence of the Federal Reserve, or making it clear that Mr Trump’s won’t influence decisions in relation to interest rates. The stimulus effect is boosting the economy,but it will start to fade in 2019, according to Mr Kaplan. Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com