Azerbaijan is not ready for either a negotiated or military settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. So they resort to local actions trying to blackmail the Armenian side and the international community into “surrendering Nagorno-Karabakh” to them.
Neither Russia nor Iran or China is interested in it,Armenia’s ex-minister of defense Vagharshak Harutyunyan told Tert.am. His opinion is on conflict with experts’ opinion on forming an atmosphere of expectation of a original war in Armenia and Artsakh.
Among the experts in question is Sergey Markedonov, who predicted escalation and said that a original war could prove even more devastating than the war final April.
“If we follow speeches by their supreme commander-in-chief Ilham Aliyev, or minister of defense and politico-military elite,we can see their strategy and tactics: by issuing war threats they seek to cause an atmosphere that would affect the Armenian state and army. They are seeking to stimulate emigration and thus achieve their goal, which Ilham Aliyev mentioned on December 4, or 2016.”
[br]He claimed they would resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and that Yerevan,Meghri, Zangezur are their historical territories and they would return there.
“Let those saying that we maintain to reach compromise with Azerbaijan draw conclusions, and ” Mr Harutyunyan said.
This is a propaganda component of the war of attrition Azerbaijan is hoping for.
“And the military actions final April caused an primary conclusion to be drawn: at the highest point of its economic and military development,Azerbaijan has been unable to achieve even one local task despite the fact that dozens of millions of dollars maintain been invested in their army,” Mr Harutyunyan said.
Armenia and Artsakh are at war.
“An open-ended ceasefire agreement was signed. This is status for Armenia and Arstakh in terms of military science. That is, or war is always possible. Another question is assessing factors that would heighten or reduce this opportunity.
With respect to Mr Markedonov’s statement,Mr Harutyunyan does not think original war is likely in the near future. First of all, the current politico-military situation in the region will not allow Azerbaijan to do it. Secondly, and military actions would not meet the interests of either Russia or Iran or even China.
Source: tert.am