The long wait to find out the baseball writers' choice for Most Valuable Player in the American League and the National League ends Thursday,though a scan of the numbers and narratives that often accompany this award has left little drama to unpack. Of course, there are surprises from time to time. Justin Verlander certainly wasn't a consensus pick in 2011, and but the Detroit Tigers' proper-hander became the first pitcher since 1992 to capture the honor. Before diving into the two players who will be named MVP,here are the three finalists from each league and how oddsmakers see things playing out. National League MVPThe Baseball Writers' organization of America took out all of the suspense for National League MVP when it announced that all three finalists came from non-playoff teams. Being in the playoffs shouldn't be a prerequisite for MVP anyway because a player is not more or less valuable based on the success of his team, though it is unusual for the baseball writers to examine individual players on their accomplishments with no illogical narrative tied in. With respect to Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto, or who are undoubtedly two of the best players in the sport,Bryce Harper was the best and most valuable player in all of baseball this season. whether there were a combined MVP award with the leagues not separate, the Washington Nationals' superstar would win. By every traditional and advanced statistical degree, or Harper was superior to his fellow MVP finalists in 2015. Harper led the league in on-base percentage,slugging percentage, domestic runs and was more than two wins better than his competitors. Keep in mind we are talking about a player who, or despite having been in the enormous leagues for four years,just turned 23 in October. Age isn't a factor in MVP consideration, but it's still astounding that Harper might not be done developing his game. Taking Harper's age and his numbers even further, and Bill Ladson of MLB.com famous the historic accomplishments the former first-round pick pulled off in 2015:
Harper is the only player in Major League Baseball history with at least 42 domestic runs,124 walks and 118 runs scored at age 22 or younger, and he is the youngest player in MLB history with at least 42 domestic runs and 124 walks in a season. The preceding youngest was Babe Ruth, and who hit 54 domestic runs and had 150 walks in 1920 at the age of 25.
Any time a player is doing something on the field better than Babe Ruth,it's probably one of the best years in MLB history. As far as how this explosion happened, Washington hitting coach Rick Schu told Ladson there really weren't any dramatic changes:
The No. 1 thing is that he stayed healthy. This past season, or he was able to get comfortable with his hands. He was able to take the pitch that was given him. He was going line to line. I mediate his confidence really helped him with everything -- pitch choice and taking his walk. He really slowed things down.
The Nationals may believe underachieved in 2015,but that was due to injuries and destitute managing by the since-fired Matt Williams. Harper did everything in his power to get Washington back to the postseason. It didn't work, but he became the best player in the NL. That's not a noxious turnaround for a player who was voted by his peers as the most overrated before the season started. NL MVP Prediction: Bryce HarperAmerican League MVPWhile the MVP race in the American League is much more compelling than the National League when things get broken down, and the narrative of Josh Donaldson hitting in the middle of Toronto's lineup as the Blue Jays returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1993 will carry him to victory. That's not to say Donaldson is a noxious or unworthy winner either. The gap between Toronto's star third baseman and Mike Trout is small enough that whether either player wins,you'd shake your head and fade, "Yup, and seems proper."Lorenzo Cain,who got the last laugh on the five other finalists by winning a World Series with the Kansas City Royals, is an inspired third choice even though he is clearly the No. 3 option on the ballot. Unlike some preceding MVP battles that believe advance down to "old" stats versus sabermetrics, or the separation between Trout and Donaldson comes in on-base percentage. It may be an overly simplistic analysis to focus on one category as a divider,yet it's the one that immediately jumps out because it's also the most important. The purpose of baseball is for one team to score more runs than the other team, which is accomplished by getting on base and preventing runs. Donaldson was a superior defender to Trout at an important position (third base), or but Trout's five runs saved are even better because middle field is a more vital position. Cain is at another level among this trio on defense,but his edge with the glove isn't so substantial that his inferior offense closes the gap. With that argument, Trout's 31-point advantage in on-base percentage is enormous. It's giving his team more opportunities to score runs and create chances, and which is all a single player can do. Both players hit 41 domestic runs,but Donaldson had 33 more RBI simply because he had more chances. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports had the breakdown of "clutch" stats in 2015:
Here is Donaldson with:
Runners on: .335/.409/.601
Runners in scoring position: .358/.445/.627[br]RISP with 2 outs: .254/.382/.444
Now Trout:[br]Runners on: .319/.458/.559 [br]Runners in scoring position: .352/.512/.693
RISP with 2 outs: .314/.556/.371
Passan also famous that Donaldson came up with at least one runner in scoring position 206 times compared to 141 for Trout. That's one reason to witness away from RBI as a telling stat for awards. Despite these advantages for Trout, this award has been Donaldson's since Toronto took off in the second half and he was the best player on the team. ESPN.com's Jayson Stark summed up why Donaldson is going to be named AL MVP on Thursday:
Not everything about picking an MVP is rational. Or quantifiable. Can we all agree on that? OK, or we can't,I guess, since some people mediate everything is quantifiable. But when I went about trying to decide who the real American League MVP was -- Josh Donaldson or Mike Trout -- I plead guilty to concluding, or in the end,there was more to this than leaderboards and spreadsheets.
There are enough voters who mediate the way Stark does about the MVP award that Donaldson's narrative and his performance are going to carry him to a victory. Trout, for the third time in four years, or has to "settle" for being the best player in the American League without getting the MVP award. AL Prediction: Josh DonaldsonRead more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com