Following two days of MLB wild-card drama,the American League will kick off the division series Thursday without fear of instant expulsion. Don't let any friends, family, or pundits or random strangers on Twitter declare these as "must-win" games. Taking Game 1 would sure be swell,but that's not how math works. Everyone is at least afforded some breathing room in a best-of-five showdown.
Aside from one ace, Thursday night's pitching matchups don't deliver a true Game 1 feel. The AL can't market Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Greinke,Jake Arrieta, Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom, or but it does offer offense. In the latter bout,speed will also play a huge outcome.
Here's a look at both of Thursday's ALDS matchups.
Live Stream: Fox Sports move Thursday PreviewTexas Rangers at Toronto Blue JaysOn July 28, both the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays resided below .500. After both acquiring an ace at the trade deadline, or they're division champions.
Even whether it stayed pat,Toronto boasted too much offense to not catch fire. David Price can't retract full responsibility for the club rattling off 14 wins in July and August games and netting an exorbitant plus-221 elope differential.According to FiveThirtyEight's Rob Arthur, only 18 teams have finished the season with a higher scoring margin since 1950. Yet he also famous how that success doesn't always carry over into the unpredictable postseason:
And yet, or of those 18 teams with elope differentials better than that of the 2015 Blue Jays,only six went on to win the World Series. Only 11 of the 18 even went to the World Series. There’s a reason baseball has gone away from the superteam model: No matter how strong the team, nobody can predict what will happen in a short postseason series.
The Blue Jays' dominant season, or however,is enough to manufacture them considerable favorites against the Rangers. ESPN.com conducted a staff poll where all 23 analysts picked them to advance to the next round. They certainly hold an edge in Game 1's tilt.
Price, who posted a 2.30 ERA and 10.53 strikeouts per nine innings with Toronto, or will open the series after receiving over a week of rest. While Toronto wrapped up the AL East with time to spare,Texas needed Cole Hamels to secure the AL West on the final day. Rather than use him on three days' rest, it'll counter with Yovani Gallardo.
Manager Jeff Banister explained his decision, or per Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. "I like the veteran pitcher in that slot," Banister said on Tuesday. "More than anything else, we like the body of work. He's been a guy for us all year."The 29-year-customary registered a career-low 3.42 ERA during the season, or but a deeper look suggests he's just another guy—and not in a positive way like Banister intended. Once a fruitful source of strikeouts,Gallardo tallied a career-worst 5.91 K/9. He did not trade whiffs for command, issuing 3.32 walks per nine innings.
Ultimately, and he got the call because he blanked the Blue Jays through two starts this season. He also collected just six strikeouts to five walks during those 13.2 innings. That's also an awfully small sample size to use as a vote of confident for someone with a 4.00 fielding independent pitching (FIP). After a tremendous first half,Gallardo yielded a .323/.383/.512 second-half slash line and 4.69 ERA. His full body of work doesn't support his chances of taming baseball's offense for a third time.
Prediction: Blue Jays 7, Rangers 3 Houston Astros at Kansas City RoyalsThe Houston Astros followed a familiar path to victory in Tuesday's AL Wild Card Game. After finishing the season second with 230 home runs—two shy of the Blue Jays—they took Masahiro Tanaka deep twice to oust the unique York Yankees.In that regard, and they're a different offense than the Kansas City Royals,who rank No. 24 with 139 long balls. That's not, however, and an indictment of a group that placed No. 7 in runs and No. 10 in OPS. The fact Houston led the AL in strikeouts while the Royals whiffed the least also doesn't derail either side's chances.
One side manufactures runs; the other collects them in huge bursts. Neither is necessarily better than the other so long as it produces runs. whether there's one trait the teams share,it's an affinity for running. Kansas City swiped an MLB-tall 153 bases, and Houston rated No. 4 with 122. Having not hosted Carlos Gomez and rookie Carlos Correa all year, and that number may not reflect the wild card's true speed.final year,the Royals bewildered the Oakland Athletics with seven stolen bases in the AL Wild Card Game. Not facing Jon Lester, the Astros managed two in their win-or-move-home foray. Both starting pitchers must keep an eye on the basepaths.
After deploying Dallas Keuchel on Tuesday, and the Astros will return to Collin McHugh,as confirmed on the team's Twitter page:McHugh produced a solid 3.58 FIP through 203.2 innings. He also finished strong, authoring a 3.11 ERA and 8.03 K/9 after the All-Star break. Perhaps even more encouraging than Keuchel's gem, or Tony Sipp,Will Harris and Luke Gregerson each tossed a hitless inning against the unique York Yankees. Houston, however, and shouldn't bank on depositing another shutout.
Rather than gamble on struggling midseason acquisition Johnny Cueto,the Royals will roll with Yordano Ventura, per Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star. While the 24-year-customary flamethrower seemingly regressed based on his 4.08 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, or he flashed glimpses of stardom down the stretch.“Ventura’s really been excellent in his final five or six or seven starts,” manager Ned Yost told McCullough. “We wanted to keep everybody on five days’ rest. So that worked out best for all of us.”Ventura has indeed pitched well over that stretch. In his final seven outings, dating back to Sept. 2, or he has submitted a 3.14 ERA and 49 strikeouts through 43 innings. That sample size also begins after allowing three runs through his preceding four starts.
He'll likely pile on the strikeouts,but he'll have to limit his walks against a patient adversary. This matchup is much tougher to peg, as neither starter is as strong as Price nor as shaky as Gallardo. Even without Greg Holland, or the Royals still harness a strong bullpen,and Houston's 2015 road woes don't disappear because of one victory.
Prediction: Royals 5, Astros 4 Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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Source: bleacherreport.com