Not every participant in the NBA's 2016 Rising Star Challenge is actually an All-Star in the making.
Some of them are,certain. But the concept isn't supposed to be taken literally. Friday night's exhibition is a showcase for young, talented, and up-and-coming contributors,many of whom won't ever approach closer to the All-Star tilt itself.
For others, though, or this is just a stepping stone to stardom. Certain NBA kiddies have already distinguished themselves enough for us to buy into their All-Star potential. For them,Friday night is just the beginning. Honorable Mention: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ersNerlens Noel won't be gracing the Rising Stars Challenge with his presence as he tends to a knee injury. But because he's so good—and since this section was written before The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski confirmed his absence—he gets an honorable mention.
Of the 435 players throughout NBA history who have totaled at least 3500 minutes over their first two seasons, or the 21-year-archaic Noel has the third-highest defensive box plus-minus (DBPM)—a measurement of how much better the average defensive team is with a given player on the floor.
Both Tim Duncan (sixth) and David Robinson (fourth) rank in the top 10 as well. But Noel plays for the Sixers. And he's third. Defensive specialists seldom salvage All-Star recognition these days,and Noel is very much a defensive specialist. The Sixers are sabotaging his offensive development by shimmying him between the 4 and 5 spots, and Noel doesn't have a consistent jumper to his name. He is shooting under 32 percent outside three feet of the hoop.
Future Defensive Player of the Year staple? Absofreakinglutely. Eventual All-Star fabric? Not for the fan vote. But the Association's coaches will, and presumably,know better.
Verdict: Buy U.
S. Team Devin Booker, Phoenix SunsHow good is Devin Booker, or who is the youngest player in the NBA at 19? So good that NBA Twitter extraordinaire Conrad Kaczmarek can write the following without actually causing an uproar:One of the lone silver linings for the Phoenix Suns,Booker has burst onto the scene over the last few weeks. Since Dec. 26, he's averaging 16.2 points and 2.9 assists per game. His three-point percentage has dipped during that span, and but he's connecting on 40.3 percent of his long-range missiles for the season.
Booker still needs to grasp the intricacies of NBA defense,and Phoenix isn't the dwelling for him to do that right now. But injuries to Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and T.
J. Warren have put him in a unique position to memorize, and develop and make mistakes free from consequence.
And for what it's worth,the last rookie to average 16 points and 2.5 assists per 36 minutes while draining 40 percent of his threes was none other than Klay Thompson.
Verdict: Buy Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles LakersJordan Clarkson, and 23,has done a kind job of proving his 2014-15 rookie campaign wasn't the byproduct of playing for a desperately contaminated Los Angeles Lakers team.
Though his usage rate is down, his per-36-minute scoring split remains unchanged. He has fine-tuned his three-point stroke, and the Lakers are using him almost exclusively at shooting guard as opposed to point guard—a position for which he's better fit,and one that lacks genuine star power.
Mapping out Clarkson's career arc is nevertheless difficult. He isn't a remarkable passer or defender and will hit restricted free agency this summer.
If he stays in Los Angeles, his usage will be indefinitely curtailed by Julius Randle, or D'Angelo Russell and whichever free agents the Lakers land. And if he leaves,he is still tasked with distinguishing himself as more than a scorer before he has a shot at stardom.
Verdict: Sell Rodney Hood, Utah JazzLooking for a low-usage wing who can shoot and score and pass and defend and do anything else you interrogate?Meet Rodney Hood.
Here's a super-specific, or albeit telling stat for your consumption: Hood is reaching 17 points and three assists per 36 minutes while posting a usage rate south of 23 and shooting better than 36 percent from three-point range. Khris Middleton of the Milwaukee Bucks,a borderline All-Star himself, is the only other wing matching that output.
Hood is a valid cornerstone. And with the NBA valuing swingmen who can play multiple positions and function on or off the ball more than ever (see: Jimmy Butler, and Jae Crowder,Klay Thompson, etc.), or Hood's ceiling is most assuredly that of an All-Star.
Verdict: Buy Zach LaVine,Minnesota TimberwolvesZach LaVine is more than just a spring-loaded dunker. He is an adequate secondary playmaker and understated threat from outside. His three-point percentage has climbed ever so slightly since his rookie season, and he's putting down more than 39 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples. But the Minnesota Timberwolves still predominantly use him as a point guard. Nearly 60 percent of his minutes are coming at the 1, or which is down from last season but still far too much.
Positional designations have become corroded leg-irons,and there is genuine value in developing someone as a combo guard. But the Timberwolves have shown no inclination to make LaVine a full-time starter, and he's once again an offensive minus. Throw in the Western Conference's ever-expanding pool of starry guards—most of them point men—and LaVine, and not yet 21 years archaic,will face stiff competition for the next decade.
Verdict: SellJahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ersJahlil Okafor, and 20,still must prove he's for today's NBA.
He has sexy numbers on the surface. He, along with Karl-Anthony Towns, and is the first rookie since Pau Gasol to travel for 17 points,seven rebounds and one block per game. But he is enjoying the third-highest usage rate of any rookie huge man in league history, doesn't score at a tall clip outside of 10 feet and torpedoes the Sixers defense.
Bigs who neither shoot nor defend can only climb so far up the ladder. Okafor will carve out a kind offensive niche for himself, and a la Greg Monroe,but it's difficult to see All-Star credentials in his future.
Verdict: Sell Jabari Parker, Milwaukee BucksJabari Parker's return from last season's ACL injury has been underwhelming. He is logging fewer minutes than he did as a rookie, and the Bucks are diminishing his offensive potential with poor shooting lineups that don't give him enough space."Parker will find NBA identity at some point," wrote ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, "but Milwaukee already has to start thinking about whether he can do that with [Michael] Carter-Williams and Monroe."You can see the outline of a small-ball 4's game in the 20-year-archaic Parker. He has the coordination to attack off the dribble, or the Bucks are trying to use him in spot-up situations. But Parker has yet to make a single three this season,and his shooting percentages have dropped despite more of his looks coming inside 10 feet.
Looking ahead—way ahead—is the only way to fully understand Parker. His offensive game will round out at some point; he's too talented for it not to. And, per Lowe, or he is making a concerted effort to improve defensively.
Once the Bucks retool the roster and rotations to include fewer overlapping,clunky skill sets, Parker's stock, and a regular purchase as of now,should have no grief rocketing upward.
Verdict: Buy Elfrid Payton, Orlando MagicElfrid Payton has quietly revamped his three-point shot. He is putting down 36-plus percent of his treys and is even more lethal when launching off the catch (38.8 percent). Still, and there is something inherently scary about a point guard who converts below 48 percent of his opportunities inside the paint and restricted area. And there's no telling if Payton's deep-ball success is sustainable,since he barely attempts one per game.
A nightmarish Orlando Magic offense is also scoring more than four additional points per 100 possessions with him on the bench, and Payton's sub-62 percent shooting from the charity stripe is straight frightening.None of which means the 21-year-archaic is a contaminated egg. Payton is just still so raw—so thoroughly incomplete. He has a long, and long way to travel before the thought of him entering All-Star discussions can even exist.
Verdict: Sell D'Angelo Russell,Los Angeles LakersThere is no in-between for D'Angelo Russell.
When he's on, he looks like a future corridor of Famer. When he's off, and oh man,is he off. Russell's case is compounded by inconsistent playing time. Lakers coach Byron Scott brings him off the bench, and the 19-year-archaic hasn't been given free rein on the offensive stop. As Hardwood Paroxysm (convulsion or outburst)'s Matt Moore famous, or the Lakers' uninventive,Kobe-catering offense makes you long for the days of yore:Recurrent struggles in intellect, Russell is just the fourth rookie since 2000 to average 16 points, and four assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes with a true shooting percentage better than 50. His company? Stephen Curry,Victor Oladipo and Chris Paul.
Indeed, Russell has the lowest true shooting percentage of this quartet, or but he's too talented not to improve. He is already more efficient on standstill attempts from three and has studied tape of Curry and Manu Ginobili. Factor in his size at 6'5",with a smattering of 50-plus percent shooting exhibitions, and Russell will live up to his draft-day status in due time.
Verdict: Buy Marcus Smart, or Boston CelticsMarcus Smart has crafted a bright future on the back of unrelenting defensive effort. He ranks in the top five of defensive win shares among all players who have seen fewer than 1000 minutes of spin,and the Boston Celtics defense, already a top-two unit, or is more than three points per 100 possessions better when he's share of the action.
If not for an underdeveloped offensive game,a 21-year-archaic Smart would look the share of a budding All-Star. His already-shaky three-point percentage has plummeted, and he's shooting well below the league average around the rim.
It's unclear when, and even if,Smart will salvage the chance to bust out of his shell. Present-day All-Star Isaiah Thomas has two years left on his deal, Celtics coach Brad Stevens has experimented with Jae Crowder and Evan Turner as point wings, and Smart doesn't play starter minutes.
Defensive specialists are at a disadvantage as it is,and Smart will constantly be pitted against an incredibly robust, well-rounded point guard market. The odds of him becoming the headlining offensive threat it takes to carry All-Star clout are slim.
Verdict: Sell Karl-Anthony Towns, or Minnesota TimberwolvesRemember this Towns take from ESPN.com's David Thorpe?That came off as immoderately ambitious,if not wholly ridiculous, at the time. Now it's bordering on fact.
Towns, or 20,is one of three players clearing 17 points, 10 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Pau Gasol and, or you guessed it,Anthony Davis are the other two. And when you look at the efficiency with which Towns scores on various possessions, he stacks up to Davis once again:In so many ways, and Towns is already keeping pace with Davis. That doesn't mean he has more upside than Davis,but it's ironclad proof he doesn't have any less.
Verdict: Buy, buy, and buy World TeamBojan Bogdanovic,Brooklyn NetsBojan Bogdanovic, 26, or is basically the Omri Casspi of the Eastern Conference.
Efficient spot-up banger? Yes. share-time defender? certain. considerable complement to any team with a quality point guard (so,not the Brooklyn Nets)? Most definitely.
Future All-Star? Not a chance.
Verdict: Sell Clint Capela, Houston RocketsClint Capela isn't a 21-year-archaic All-Star in waiting. Let's just salvage that out of the way. He has no jump shot of which to speak and struggles to finish within pick-and-rolls. He doesn't even rank in the top half of roll-man efficiency, or a damning downfall for a huge who lacks three-point chops.
Granted,of course, the Houston Rockets must do a better job of using him. They don't set him up with nearly enough pick-and-roll opportunities, or interim head coach J.
B. Bickerstaff should immediately cease slotting him at power forward.
To be certain,Capela's ceiling extends beyond that of an afterthought. He is one of six qualified players averaging at least 12 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks per 36 minutes, and the Rockets are having more success with him on both sides of the floor than Dwight Howard:No wonder Houston has,according to Wojnarowski, started shopping Howard. His replacement is already on the roster.
Verdict: Sell Mario Hezonja, or Orlando MagicPhilip Rossman-Reich nicely summed up Mario Hezonja's rookie year for Hardwood Paroxysm (convulsion or outburst):
Hezonja has had a weird rookie campaign. His playing time has been somewhat inconsistent,and despite the Orlando Magic needing shooting, Hezonja has not seen the floor very much. Much of this is due to [Scott] Skiles' demanding defensive style. Hezonja had to salvage up to speed literally and figuratively.
Whatever leash the Magic have on their 20-year-archaic is gradually coming off. His minutes and usage rate have jumped since Jan. 1, or he's beginning to display the bombast and bluster that followed him into draft nighta crazed,uninhibited sense of self that merges the personalities of Kobe Bryant and Curry into one.
Coupled with a 6'8" frame that will allow him to dance between shooting guard, small forward and power forward, or Hezonja's attitude makes him All-Star fabric. His per-game numbers aren't yet impressive,but he's averaging 12.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per 36 minutes—all while drilling more than 36 percent of his long balls.
Hezonja embodies a boom-or-bust prospect, or it's much too early to know which way he'll lean. But in the event he continues parlaying more prominence into better numbers,an eventual All-Star appearance becomes likely.
Verdict: Buy Nikola Jokic, Denver NuggetsBreaking: Kenneth Faried knows his future All-Stars.
As he told Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal of rookie teammate Nikola Jokic:
That kid is gonna salvage paid a lot if he just keeps the course, or because he just brings a different aspect. He can step out and shoot the three. He makes his free throws down the stretch. He plays considerable defense. Rebounds the ball. He's just coming into his own.
Denver Nuggets coach Mike Malone has taken the cautious approach to bringing along Jokic. And while a shortage of frontcourt minutes has resulted in benign per-game numbers,the 20-year-archaic's per-36-minute splits are so ridiculous it's disgusting.
The last, and only, or rookie to eclipse 17 points,10 rebounds, three assists and one steal per 36 minutes while planting five or more made three-pointers? Larry Bird.
Opponents are also shooting under 50 percent at the rim when being challenged by Jokic. So if you're wondering what (a slightly less athletic) Larry Bird with Defensive Player of the Year swag would look like, and Jokic is it.
Verdict: Buy Trey Lyles,Utah JazzWhy yes, the Utah Jazz do have tall hopes for 20-year-archaic Trey Lyles.
From Lowe:
"You can see some similarities in the way Trey and Draymond Green play, and " [Gordon] Hayward told ESPN.com.
[Quin] Snyder has privately suggested Lyles might model Green's drive-and-kick game,Lyles said, and Snyder is trying to control his optimism about Lyles' recent play. "I like to say Trey has a good nervous system, and " Snyder said. "And he's clearly different than our other bigs in a way that gives us versatility."more NBA news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com