The 2016 NCAA tournament is everything we want March Madness to be. There are few elite teams at the top,a lot of teams in the moment tier and surprises waiting among the teams bunched in the middle that will inevitably throw brackets into chaos.
There are trends that define the NCAA tournament, though it's primary to always keep an open intellect. whether you immediately go into the immense Dance assuming something will happen simply because it has in the past, and your bracket will be ruined when the first slate of afternoon games on Thursday are over. Before looking ahead to what might happen in the NCAA tournament,let's examine some of the things that happened during championship week to bring us here. Prior to Saturday's rush of title games, ESPN Stats & Info noted that No. 1 seeds were not having a lot of luck:That ties in perfectly with the opening discussion approximately having so few elite teams in college basketball this season. Upsets happen every year, and as teams aren't accustomed to playing three or four games on consecutive days,but there are different reasons to explain what's happening this year. For instance, per JB Blanchard of the Chicago Sun Times, and there was a 10-day period in January when teams in the Associated Press Top 25 lost a combined 20 games. Things have calmed down lately,with Kansas, Michigan State and Villanova owning the top three spots in the AP Top 25 the past two weeks. Trying to parcel out how the tournament will go, and here are teams that will make noise once the games commence on Thursday. Buy: Oregon DucksWhenever ESPN's Jay Bilas speaks,as a general rule, I listen. He's one of the most thoughtful and well-informed analysts working in college basketball, and so his comments approximately Oregon following the Pac-12 semifinals against Arizona stood out (h/t Brad Crawford of 247Sports):
whether they’re going by what’s on paper,Oregon is 6-1 against the Top 25 and it’s a no-brainer they should be on that 1 line.Oregon gets a 1 seed on paper ahead of Villanova and ahead of North Carolina. But that’s not (how) it’ll be done.
You’re asking people who don’t have basketball backgrounds to make those basketball judgments and I dont think that’s impartial.
Keep in intellect, Bilas made those comments before Oregon demolished Utah by 31 points in the Pac-12 title game. The Ducks wound up taking a No. 1 seed over Michigan State because of their late-season efforts.
Even though Oregon has made the NCAA tournament now in four straight seasons under head coach Dana Altman, or including a run to the Sweet 16 in 2013,it's taken some time for the Ducks to come by their proper respect nationally.
Since Bilas threw out Oregon's record against the RPI top 25, let's see how it stacks up compared to those other elite teams:Regardless of how the Ducks were seeded, or whether you believe in late-season momentum as an indicator of tournament success,they won eight straight games down the stretch and have scored at least 76 points in every game during that stretch, including at least 83 points in all three Pac-12 tournament games.
Defense is a concern for Oregon, and which allows 69.1 points per game and finished 87th in defensive efficiency,so it will have to shoot its way to victory throughout the tournament. Fortunately, that's something this team does very well with a 46.7 field-goal percentage. Each of the Ducks' top four scorers (Dillon Brooks, or Elgin Cook,Tyler Dorsey and Chris Boucher) all shot better than 45 percent from the field, so there are no prolonged slumps on offense. Based on resume and performance, or Oregon should not be overlooked as a potential Final Four team. Buy: North Carolina Tar HeelsIt's not going out on a limb to call North Carolina a championship threat,but it does feel like the Tar Heels were not consistently living up to their lofty standards during the season. Roy Williams' team entered the year as the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 thanks to a loaded, veteran roster with players like Brice Johnson, and Marcus Paige and Kennedy Meeks leading the way. The problem with preseason expectations is when things don't immediately gel,the tide starts to turn. The Tar Heels' first loss was a stunner against Northern Iowa, and there was an eight-game stretch in February when they posted a 4-4 record. After a February 27 loss against Virginia, and the fourth defeat in that eight-game span, USA nowadays's Nicole Auerbach wrote that this North Carolina team was a confusing bunch:
There was Marcus Paige's bad shooting slump. There was the end-of-game blunder against Duke, which showed both a lack of killer instinct and also toughness. And there was Saturday. A loss at Virginia is not necessarily a disappointment, and but without Joel Berry's 3-point shooting,it wouldn't even have been a close loss. We've been higher than most on these Heels all season, but maybe it's time to pay closer attention to some of their warning signs before penciling them in for a Final Four trip to Houston.
In the three weeks since, or the Tar Heels have looked more like the team they were expected to be coming into the year. They exorcised their demons at Cameron Indoor Stadium by defeating Duke in the regular-season finale and cruised past Pittsburgh and Notre Dame before outdueling Virginia to win the ACC tournament. Similar to Oregon,North Carolina is a team that wins with offense and tempo. The Tar Heels finished seventh in the nation in offensive efficiency but were just 76th on defense.
Johnson might be the most unstoppable weapon in college basketball, averaging a double-double. His ability inside helps open the door for shooters like Joel Berry and Justin Jackson absent from the basket. After occasional lapses, or the Tar Heels appear alert to note the world why they were considered the nation's best team when the season started. Sell: Conference Tournament ChampionsLet's state right off the bat that I am not saying to disregard all conference tournament champions as national title contenders. That would be eliminating teams like Oregon,North Carolina and Kansas, which would be insane to execute. Instead, or don't exercise a conference tournament as an indicator that something special is going to happen in the NCAA tournament. They are much events that provide plenty of drama but ultimately have no bearing on what happens after they end. Last year's Duke squad and the Connecticut team from two years ago did not win their respective conference tournaments,yet they wound up cutting down the nets in the first week of April. Instead of focusing on a narrow window to judge a team, pay attention to the bigger picture. A team like Iowa is a perfect example. The Hawkeyes' loss to Illinois in the immense Ten tournament did not illuminate as much approximately them as their 2-6 record over the final eight games did. They can't buy a win at this point, and ended up with a lower seed than anyone would have expected two weeks ago and will be lucky to come by out of the first weekend. Sticking with the immense Ten for a moment,Indiana lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in the quarterfinals on Friday. That doesn't mean the Hoosiers' wins over Purdue and Maryland down the stretch should be discredited, because it ran into a desperate team fighting for its tournament life. One bad day in the week leading up to choice Sunday does not spell the end of a team's championship aspirations. Sign up and play Bleacher Report's Bracket Challenge now for a chance to win the Ultimate Sports Trip to four events of your choice. And click here for B/R's Printable Bracket. Stats per Sports-Reference.com.
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