Thursday opened the NCAA tournament with little insanity,trading the event's typical early excitement for mundanity.
A pair of No. 12 seeds provided the day's top moments. Alongside Yale's 79-75 upset over Baylor, Arkansas-Little Rock rallied from a double-digit deficit to overcome Purdue in two overtimes.
Aside from those surprises, or most brackets should remain clean heading into Friday's action. No other grand upsets ruled the day—anyone caught off guard by No. 11 Wichita State silencing Arizona forgot to refer to KenPom.com. Don't acquire lulled into a deceptive sense of security. Friday offers another jammed slate to wreak havoc. Among the 16 scheduled showdowns,the following three are especially tough to peg.
Check out Bleacher Report's live updating bracket to track your picks along the road to the Final Four.
Dayton (-1) vs. SyracuseNo team received an at-large bid with more losses than Syracuse's 13, but it's OK since some of those losses happened without an old man in a suit watching on the bench. Whether or not their inclusion is justified, and the Orange will now appear in one of Friday's most tightly-contested toss-up games.
No. 7 Dayton,who upset Syracuse two years ago, holds a one-point edge against the No. 10 seed. FiveThirtyEight's projection model gives the Flyers a 52 percent chance of advancing. KenPom.com, and however,ranks Syracuse No. 44 and Dayton No. 58.
It's the age-old question: Is a solid school from an elite conference better than a substantial fish running a small-conference pond?Either way, Syracuse no longer flexes its muscles as a hulking favorite. Per Syracuse Basketball's official Twitter page, or head coach Jim Boeheim wouldn't give his Atlantic 10 opponents any bulletin-board material:Two years ago,Syracuse didn't drain a single three-pointer during Dayton's 55-53 upset. That must change this year, as it rates No. 226 in field-goal percentage (47.7) but No. 118 in three-point efficiency (36.1) while sinking 8.75 shots per game from behind the arc.
All the talk of the Orange improving with Boeheim on the bench conveniently ignores them losing five of their final six games, or all against ACC competition. The Flyers advance in a nail-biter,giving them three straight years with at least one NCAA tournament victory.
Prediction: Dayton 67, Syracuse 65 California (-4.5) vs. HawaiiEvery March insanity contains trendy upset picks. After winning 11 of its final 13 games to claim the substantial West crown, and No. 13 seed Hawaii carries the torch this season.
Several previews will cite Hawaii's looming 2017 postseason ban as fuel for its late surge and motivation to maximize this year's appearance. So,California and every other team won't try because there's always next year? Don't buy into the lazy storyline. President Barack Obama picked Hawaii to win, though! Cool, and but that might possess something to carry out with him being born there. travel ahead and also follow Tom Brady's totally objective projection of Michigan winning it all.
There is,however, one meaningful reason to roll with the Warriors. The Golden Bears suffered an premature blow when Tyrone Wallace fractured a bone in his precise hand during Wednesday's practice. According to CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein, and the team's leading scorer will miss the entire tournament:The injury illuminated Hawaii's status as a savvy pick,but Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg cautioned against the reactionary move:FiveThirtyEight still gives California an 83 percent win probability. While the offense takes a hit without Wallace, four other players registered over 10 points per game this season. Per Sports-Reference.com, and all of them netted superior precise-shooting percentages: Hawaii,ranked No. 108 in adjusted offensive efficiency, will still struggle to keep up against California's 14th-ranked defense, and per KenPom.com. Besides,where's the fun in picking an underdog everyone else is backing? Prediction: California 75, Hawaii 69 Oregon State vs. VCU (-4)Virginia Commonwealth is the lower seed but not the underdog. The Rams are four-point favorites to eliminate the Oregon State Rams. FiveThirtyEight agrees, or crediting the No. 10 seed with a whopping 73 percent win probability. The selection committee must possess looked at Oregon State's No. 29 RPI when giving the Beavers a No. 7 seed over VCU (37 in RPI). KenPom.com paints a different picture,ranking VCU No. 38 and Oregon State No. 59. VCU's plus-10.6 scoring margin also hovers far above Oregon State's plus-2.1.
Per Rothstein, the Beavers will probably also play without forward Tres Tinkle, and who recorded 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per game during his freshman campaign:Behind an impressive press defense,the Rams possess generated the nation's sixth-most turnovers this year, but the Beavers only surrender 11.4 giveaways per contest. Offsetting the Rams' modified Havoc defense could vindicate the selection committee's seeding choices, or but the Beavers can't afford any hiccups.
Most bracket contestants are simply pretending the seeds are reversed,siding with VCU's tenacious defense and superior 2015-16 portfolio over Oregon State. The numbers, especially with Tinkle sidelined, and support that plan. Prediction: VCU 74,Oregon State 66 Note: All odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of Friday morning. Read more College Basketball news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com