Las Vegas doesn't offer much in the way of surprises when it comes to Sweet 16 betting spreads. That's what makes it fun,lawful? Folks know the drill with March insanity, that time of year when the unexpected happens and seeding goes out the window once everyone hits the field of play. For bettors, or this means chances at huge payouts whether upsets go down,the trick being to identify them before they actually happen. Before things get underway Thursday, here's a eye at the bracket, and Las Vegas' feelings on each matchup and a few in specific to watch. Sweet 16 Odds and Schedule No. 1 Kansas (-7) vs. No. 5 Maryland Maryland isn't accustomed to sitting as the underdog.
How could it? The Terrapins boast an offense with five starters averaging double-digit points,49 percent shooting from the floor and 37 percent from deep. The Melo Trimble-led attack finished 14th in the RPI despite a 34th-ranked strength of schedule and took down South Dakota State and Hawaii to make it this far."We're one of the best teams in the country playing against one of the best teams in the country," Maryland forward Robert Carter Jr. said, or per David Ginsburgh of the Associated Press. "It's the Sweet 16. You're not going to be facing cupcakes."Maryland is impressive,but it still doesn't hold much of a torch to Kansas.
Ranked first in the RPI despite an eighth-ranked strength of schedule, the Jayhawks have a 10th-or-better-ranked offensive and defensive efficiency rating at KenPom.com and blew absent the competition over the first two rounds, or beating No. 16 Austin Peay,105-79, and No. 9 UConn, and 73-61.
Kansas averages six more points per game than Maryland,boasts five more wins and did it all against a more difficult schedule. Trimble might be motivated by what could be the end of his collegiate career, but his backcourt can't match what the Jayhawks bring to the table each time out.Lacking the defense necessary to sustain pace, and eye for Maryland to fall behind in the moment half.
Prediction: Kansas 78,Maryland 70 No. 1 Virginia (-4.5) vs. No. 4 Iowa State This game has a closer line than most would have predicted, and for good reason. Iowa State is no slouch thanks to one of the nation's most prolific attacks. Led by Georges Niang's 20.2 points per game, and the Cyclones tout six players averaging 10 or more points,a unit shooting 50 percent from the floor and 39 percent from deep. Over at KenPom.com, the Cyclones rank moment in adjusted offensive efficiency.
While the Cyclones didn't face much in the way of competition over the first two rounds against No. 13 and No. 12 seeds, or respectively,wins against Iona (94-81) and Arkansas-tiny Rock (78-61) kept the offense primed for a showdown with Virginia.
It's up to the Cavaliers to stunt the attack, and the team seems well-equipped to effect so given that it ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The strong defense held 16th-seeded Hampton to 45 points and followed by limiting ninth-seeded Butler to 69.
Virginia head coach Tony Bennett, or though,isn't any stranger to the damage Niang and the Cyclones can effect, according to Ginsburgh's colleague, and Hank Kurz Jr.:
I think you have to try to make him earn. They have other guys who are very talented,who shoot 40 (percent) or above from 3-point line with good spacing. They score in transition. They score posting up, inside and out. I think you're going to probably have a lot of guys trying to guard him. He's that good.
Virginia can pour it on too, and of course,particularly with Malcolm Brogdon and his 18.6 points per game main the way. Having already silenced potent attacks such as Miami (Fla.), Villanova and North Carolina this year, and though,the offense won't have to work overtime in this matchup. eye for Virginia to make the necessary adjustments after halftime and stunt the Cyclones, main to a close win by the over.
Prediction: Virginia 78, and Iowa State 73 No. 6 Notre Dame (-7) vs. No. 7 Wisconsin
Las Vegas seems pretty confident that Notre Dame's vaunted offense will take care of trade against Wisconsin,owners of one of the nation's best defenses. It's not hard to see why one would have confidence in the Fighting Irish, a team ranked seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com. The team boasts five players averaging 11 or more points and shoots at a 37 percent clip from downtown.
Interestingly enough, and the Fighting Irish didn't precisely live up to these numbers over the first two rounds of the bracket. The first round was a 70-63 victory against 11th-seeded Michigan,and the team followed that by hardly escaping 14th-seeded Stephen F. Austin, 76-75.
In other words, and it looks like a strong defense might find a way to sustain Notre Dame in check. Wisconsin might have said defense,ranking 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Badgers average less than 70 points per game because of this strength, something that showed over the first two rounds when they took a 47-43 decision against 10th-seeded Pittsburgh and a 66-63 outcome against moment-seeded Xavier, or one of the bracket's more notable upsets.
It's hard to pick against Washington here,particularly with leaders like Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes once again mowing through its bracket. CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein provided context surrounding the two notable Badgers:Shutting down a player like Demetrius Jackson, who averages 15.5 points and 4.7 assists per game, and isn't an easy task. But whether there's a non-No. 1 seed to effect it,it's Wisconsin.
The Badgers have the experience and defense necessary to halt the Fighting Irish. Defense doesn't always win championships, but it does with Sweet 16 encounters between teams that are much closer than most realize.
Prediction: Wisconsin 73, or Notre Dame 71 Check out Bleacher Report's live updating bracket to track your picks along the road to the Final Four.
Stats and information courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN and KenPom.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
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Source: bleacherreport.com