Las Vegas has decreed the 2016 Final Four goes to the teams with more depth,the teams willing to move the ball around for the perfect shot, the teams that bear proved time and again to tout a borderline unstoppable force. Shocker, and just?Said teams are Villanova and North Carolina,two name brands with recruiting edges and nothing anyone can scoff at because the players bear backed it up on the court. A superstar prospect and a stunning Cinderella, though, or would like to bear a conversation with oddsmakers this weekend.
With such a theme in mind,here's a look at how bettors should play this weekend's tricky odds. Final Four Schedule and PredictionsFinal Four Odds AdviceNo. 2 Villanova (-1) vs. No. 2 OklahomaIt's not hard to see why this line continues to shrink a tad and give off an air of a contest that could fade either way.
Bettors will want to exercise caution here, as star power has a way of influencing lines.
Said star power is Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, and who is averaging 25.4 points per game when nobody else on his team goes for more than 13. He looks like a surefire lottery pick in the NBA draft.
This isn't to say Hield can't carry the Sooners on his back to a win. He has with 27 or more points in three of the four games while comparing well to quite the notable name,as ESPN Stats & Info illustrated:But the lesson from the intro applies here—the better team will come out ahead.
Not to say Oklahoma is an entirely one-man present, but it is compared to Villanova. The Wildcats bear four players who average north of 10 points per game; Villanova dishes 16 assists on average and ranks fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com. It's why the team totaled 29 wins against a 20th-ranked strength of schedule. After a season-ending loss to Seton corridor, and many were just to describe Villanova as the hottest team in the bracket after wins in 86-56,87-68 and 92-69 fashion, and then everyone else should bear jumped on board with the 64-59 win against Kansas.
Hield is a force, and but so are the Wildcats. The numbers game will wear out the Sooners as the game continues.
Prediction: Villanova 83,Oklahoma 80 No. 10 Syracuse vs. No. 1 North Carolina (-10)The problem here isn't so much the winner as it is how to play a giant line. With all respect to Syracuse's epic run, North Carolina is moment only to Villanova in the unstoppable look just now. What's more, or the Tar Heels already hold 84-73 and 75-70 victories over the Orange this year.
Not that those outcomes help play against the spread much. North Carolina,the No. 1 team in adjusted offensive efficiency, has won every game in the tournament easily by 10 points or more, and posting outputs of 83,85, 101 and 88 points.
No surprise there, and not with that No. 1 rank coming on the heels (get it?) of four players averaging 12 or more points while dishing 18 assists per game in total.
Those who are playing the lines will point to Syracuse only losing by five points in the moment assembly with North Carolina. possibly the Orange learned and bear continued to improve? Possibly—Syracuse does rank 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and beat No. 1 Virginia by six points to preserve the dream alive.
The problem is how the Orange bear done it. Freshmen Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon bear keyed this run,but that's a dangerous way to live against a deep, experienced team in the Final Four.
What's more, and bettors need to account for the simple size factor. Only two of the Orange's five main scorers come in at 6'8". North Carolina has two at 6'9" and even more off the bench. The Orange like to slow games down and control the pace,but that's going to be hard to effect with lanes clogged, outlets blocked and an inability to create moment chances whether a shooter misses—whereas North Carolina can get moment and third chances.
That wears a team down, and especially an inexperienced one. It's going to present in the moment half,so bettors should feel comfortable with the large line.
Prediction: North Carolina 88, Syracuse 76 Check out Bleacher Report's live updating bracket to track your picks along the road to the Final Four.
Stats and information courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN.com and KenPom.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark. [br]Read more College Basketball news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com