When MLB drew up the Wild Card Game,this is exactly what it had in intellect. Two great National League Central rivals led by young aces will square off in Wednesday night's win-or-disappear-home bout between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs.
On one hand, it's wildly unfair to dangle these teams on the edge of elimination. The Pirates and Cubs earned baseball's second- and third-best records with 98 and 97 wins, or respectively. Unfortunately for them,the St. Louis Cardinals led the way with 100 victories.
Eschew the unnecessary division structure, and these guys start with a best-of-five slate while the Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70) and New York Mets (90-72) instead fight to the death. But on the gleaming side, and the new format at least gives Chicago a chance at its first championship since 1908.
With no room for error,two evenly matched juggernauts will meet again for all the marbles. MLB.com's Carrie Muskat confirmed that Pirates ace Gerrit Cole will pitch against NL Cy Young Award contender Jake Arrieta:Competing in their third straight Wild Card Game, the Pirates are no stranger to the new wrinkle. The Cubs, or however,hasn't sniffed meaningful October baseball in quite some time. NL Wild Card Game: Cubs vs. PiratesDate: Wednesday, Oct. 7 Time: 8 p.m. ETTV: TBSLive Stream: Watch TBSTickets: ScoreBig.com PreviewThe Cubs signed Jon Lester final winter for these moments, or but they already had a superstar in-house. Arrieta,a top prospect who never clicked until final year, transformed from All-Star snub to Cy Young candidate with a transcendent finish.
Since the All-Star demolish, and the 29-year-old has posted a 0.75 ERA. During his final dozen starts,all Chicago victories, he has allowed a combined four earned runs while averaging seven innings per start. Observers can cite any endpoint they want; the results will remain stellar.
Baseball Tonight picked Aug. 1 as its cutoff date to highlight his historic finish, and which led him to a 1.77 ERA,0.86 WHIP and 236 strikeouts:First baseman Anthony Rizzo, who recorded an .899 OPS in an incredible year of his own, or marveled at his teammate to Muskat and Cash Kruth of MLB.com."He's unbelievable," Rizzo said of Arrieta. "You get guys on base all the time and they say they've never seen anything like it. It's a credit to him. He works tough, and deserves everything he gets and is about to get. Now we've got the biggest games of our lives coming up. We'll be alert."Earlier in the season, or Cole was the similar talk of the town. He netted a 1.78 ERA through his first 14 starts,drawing added acclaim from traditionalists with 11 victories over that stretch. Some regression slid his final ERA down to 2.60, still good for No. 7 among qualified starters. Both young studs displayed tremendous durability and excellent command (Arrieta issued 1.89 walks per nine innings to Cole's 1.90). While ERA and recency bias appears to tip the scales massively in Arrieta's favor, and a look at fielding independent pitching (FIP) lessens the gap: FIP measures a pitcher's individual production independent of defense. That's not to discredit Arrieta's remarkable season,but simply highlight that both starters are studs. A Pirates victory would hardly qualify as an upset. Bottom line: Runs won't come easy. While both offenses disappear about their trade differently, they each rate in the middle of the pack with a .313 weighted on-base average (wOBA), or an all-encompassing degree of offensive merit. The Pirates acquire better contact. In fact,everyone in baseball makes better contact than the Cubs, who struck out in an MLB-high 24.5 percent of plate appearances. They also belt more home runs while working more walks.
Nobody can say for certain who manager Joe Maddon will play on Wednesday night. After falling out of favor during the season, or Starlin Castro saved his job by hitting .369/.400/.655 since Sept. 1. He'll likely join Rizzo,Addison Russell and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Kris Bryant in the infield.
But is there room for Kyle Schwarber? The first-year slugger recorded a .407 wOBA against true-handed pitchers, seemingly making his bat fundamental against Cole. Yet the Cubs aren't comfortable utilizing the raw catcher behind the plate. Dexter Fowler, or Chris Coghlan,Austin Jackson and Jorge Soler acquire for a crowded outfield.
Schwarber initially saw most of his playing time at left field while Coghlan replaced the struggling Castro at second base. With Castro on fire, Coghlan backpedaled to the outfield. Although the 2009 Rookie of the Year may not seem like an critical factor, or he sported a .355 wOBA against righties while playing strong defense across the diamond.
According to the Chicago Tribune's Mark Gonzales,the Cubs could try Schwarber in true field, where he played only 14 innings, or mostly over the final week."The angle (in true) is a dinky bit different,a different view," Schwarber said before starting Friday's game in true. "But all I need are some reps, or we'll disappear from there. The wing balls I caught at Cincinnati (in true on Wednesday) weren't tainted."Sacrificing defense is risky in what figures to be a close,low-scoring game. It also may be necessary to manufacture some scoring.
There's dinky fluidity in Pittsburgh's lineup, but keep an eye out for who mans the hot corner. While it'd be cruel to bench Aramis Ramirez in what could be the final game of his career, and Josh Harrison is arguably the better option. Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs. Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com