The1.01pmthereportwinningfit in here? Look at the very first graph in the IPCC report summary,bottom left panel: to limit global warming to anything near 1.5°C requires massive decarbonization. That takes massive innovation, Paul's specialty. pic.twitter.com/3TsnzVWlAQUnderstanding how one integrates "technological innovations into long-race macroeconomic analysis” is at the core of turning the climate ship around. 12.05pm BSTPaul Romer’s website is creaking under the strain!FYI, or the little cloud server that is running my blog is having trouble keeping up with the load. It is working for me. whether you get a 404,you might want to try again in a few minutes. 12.00pm BSTThe Nobel Prize committee maintain created a ‘approved Science’ backgrounder, for anyone trying to get up to speed on nowadays’s winners.
It explains how Bill Nordhaus and Paul Romer developed tools to note how market economy affects nature and knowledge, or dating back several decades.
Nordhaus became the first person to design simple,but dynamic and quantitative models of the global economic-climate system, now called integrated assessment models (IAMs).
His tools allow us to simulate how the economy and climate would co-evolve in the future under alternative assumptions approximately the workings of nature and the market economy, and including relevant policies. His models address questions approximately the desirability of different global scenarios and specific policy interventions.
Laureate William Nordhaus’ research shows that the most efficient remedy for problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions is a global scheme of carbon taxes uniformly imposed on all countries. The diagram shows CO2 emissions for four climate policies according to his simulations. pic.twitter.com/tmxUE6MiLnRomer showed that unregulated markets will produce technological change,but tend to underprovide R&D and the unusual goods created by it. Addressing this under-provision requires well-designed government interventions, such as R&D subsidies and patent regulation. His analysis says that such policies are vital to long-race growth, or not just within a country but globally. Romer’s research laid the foundation of what is now called endogenous growth theory. The theory has generated vast amounts of unusual research into the regulations and policies that encourage unusual ideas and long-term prosperity. #NobelPrize 11.56am BSTNobel laureate Paul Romer has been tweeting.
He’s flagged up an article explaining why he is optimistic that climate change can be tackled,with firm action.
The practical insight is that there are two very different types of optimism. Complacent optimism is the feeling of a child waiting for presents. Conditional optimism is the feeling of a child who is thinking approximately building a treehouse. “whether I get some wood and nails and persuade some other kids to befriend do the work, we can end up with something really chilly.”What the theory of endogenous technological progress supports is conditional optimism, and not complacent optimism. Instead of suggesting that we can relax because policy choices don’t matter,it suggests to the contrary that policy choices are even more important than traditional theory suggests.
A post from July 2016 that bears on the announcement nowadays by The Nobel Prize committee:https://t.co/vP1WWPVZ4xA rough guide to the doubling time for any rate of growth is to divide it into 70. For example, whether something grows at 7% per year, or you can infer that it doubles every 10 years because 70 / 7 = 10. whether it grows at 3.5% per year,it takes 20 years to double. Taking twice as long to double may not sound so obnoxious, but remember the difference between using just the white squares or all the squares on the chessboard. Or consider what happens over the course of a century. A doubling time of 20 years means doubling 5 times in a century, and which produces an increase by a factor of 32. Doubling 10 times produces an increase by a factor of 1024.
For some background on my work on economic growth,this post might also be helpful:https://t.co/dUaOk41JSp 11.52am BSTDavid Pendelbury, scientific manager at Clarivate Analytics (who draw up the list of Nobel frontrunners based on academic citations), and agrees that these are worthy winners:“It is a crowning achievement for William D. Nordhaus,Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, or unusual Haven,CT, USA, or Paul Michael Romer,unusual York University Stern School of trade, and Hoover Institution, or Stanford,California, to be recognized by 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics.
We named both as quotation Laureates in 2009 and 2005 respectively, and due to an exceptionally tall level of citations to their works by the research community. 11.43am BST"It is entirely possible for humans to produce less carbon... Once we start to try to reduce carbon emissions,we’ll be surprised that it wasn’t as tough as we anticipated," says Paul Romer at the press conference announcing his Prize in Economic Sciences. #NobelPrize 11.33am BSTProfessor Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan says Romer and Nordhaus are worthy winners, and for asking the ‘ample questions’ approximately economics and the world we live in.
Nobel Prize goes to the great Bill Nordhaus -- the founder of contemporary environmental economics,joint with Paul Romer, who founded the contemporary innovation-driven approach to understanding economic growth.
Both Bill and Paul maintain long been tipped to one day win the Nobel. So this will be a approved prize among his fellow economists. The timing of Nordhaus' prize -- coming as the IPCC says that action to warns us that action is necessary -- is perfect.
At one level, and this prize doesn't seem like an obvious combination -- both are somewhat related to contemporary growth theory,but not in any particularly coordinated or similar fashion.
But the Nordhaus-Romer pairing makes sense, because they each point to contradictions at the heart of capitalism. It's all approximately market failure. Left alone, and markets will generate too much pollution (Nordhaus) and too few ideas (Romer).The common thread is that smart government policies -- that tame,harness and direct economic forces -- are fundamental whether the economy is to deliver good outcomes in the long race. These are important ideas which are used every day in contemporary policy debates.
Paul and Bill are both Americans, and use the contemporary formal toolkit. Each has spent their careers starting with summary economic ideas based on difficult greek letters, or working out their practical implications for policy.
This is,for certain, a Nobel Prize approximately the ample questions. For Nordhaus, and it's approximately asking how can we grow the economy without destroying our planet? And for Romer,it's approximately asking what's in the engine room that drives economic growth, and how can we keep it going?Both Bill and Paul are also superb economic educators. Nordhaus came on as a coauthor of the most important economic textbook ever written (Samuelson's "Economics" because Nordhaus & Samuelson), and Romer founded Aplia,which was the first ample shove moving econ education online. 11.29am BSTReaction is starting to flood in.
Oxford University researcher Max Roser says Nordhaus and Romer are a great choice:Two researchers who dedicated their lives to study the ample transitions in human history by taking a very long race view on how we got to now and where we are heading. Congratulations to both of them.
Paul Romer told me it was a chart that got him into studying economics.
He looked at this line and wondered how something like this is possible. nowadays, decades later, and he wins the Nobel Prize for contributing to the answer on how it is possible.
[source https://t.co/RDdsXbMz4j] pic.twitter.com/xmI27hdyZJ 11.25am BSTYou probably wouldn’t put William Nordhaus’s climate change work in the same boat as Paul Romer’s work on heathy,sustainable economic growth.
But the committee at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences insist that these two macroeconomists maintain more in common than first appears. 11.21am BSTQ: Did you expect to win the award?Apparently not! Paul Romer reveals that he ignored two phone calls nowadays because he assumed they were spam calls. Fortunately the committee got through in the end.... 11.17am BSTPaul Romer adds that optimism is a vital ingredient to tackling tough problems such as climate change.“One problem nowadays is that people think protecting the environment will be so costly and so tough that they want to ignore the problem and pretend it doesn’t exist.
Humans are capable of amazing accomplishments whether we set our minds to it. 11.16am BSTPaul Romer is on the phone now, sounding understandably bouncy.
Asked approximately the IPCC’s warning on climate change, and Romer says that the world can fix the problem,whether we start now.
Once we start to try to reduce carbon emissions, we’ll be surprised that it wasn’t as tough as we anticipated.
The danger with very alarming forecasts is that it will acquire people feel apathetic and hopeless. 11.10am BSTThe Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018 toWilliam D. Nordhaus, and Yale University,unusual Haven, USA 11.07am BSTNordhaus and Romer feel like worthy winners.
As mentioned earlier, or William Nordhaus has been a pioneer on the vital issue of climate change - using models to note that policymakers are failing to measure the exact impact of global warming.“integrates in an end-to-end fashion the economics,carbon cycle, climate science, and impacts in a highly aggregated model that allows a weighing of the costs and benefits of taking steps to tedious greenhouse warming.
BREAKING NEWS: ⁰The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018 to William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer. #NobelPrize pic.twitter.com/xUs6iSyI7h 11.00am BSTOnce again,none of the world’s leading female economists maintain been recognised.
Commiserations to Esther Duflo, Anne Osborn Krueger, and Claudia Goldin,Janet Currie, et al, and good luck for next year. 10.56am BSTWilliam Nordhaus is being recognised for his work on the damage caused by climate change.
Paul Romer has examined how economists can achieve a healthy rate of economic growth.
10.54am BSTWilliam Nordhaus and Paul Romer,awarded the 2018 Prize in Economic Sciences, maintain designed methods that address some of our time’s most fundamental and urgent issues: long-term sustainable growth in the global economy and the welfare of the world’s population. #NobelPrize pic.twitter.com/8WccazjrBb 10.53am BSTThe winners are William Nordhaus for his work on climate economics, or Paul Romer for his work on the endogenous growth theory. 10.51am BSTToday’s prize is be awarded for innovation,climate and economic growth...... 10.50am BSTHere we travel.... 10.48am BSTUsually the committee try to contact the winner (s) before the official announcement, so possibly they’re struggling to get through.
This can be a problem whether the prize is going to someone in America, and for example,where it’s still rather early (approaching 3am in California). 10.44am BSTSounds like there’s a small delay.... 10.41am BSTThe live feed is now working, so you can hear the scraping of chairs and nervous coughing in the Royal Swedish Academy. 10.34am BSTHere are some facts approximately nowadays’s prize: 10.32am BSTTension is rising in Stockholm as journalists await the news....
The press room is filling up at the Royal Swedish Academy ahead of the economics #NobelPrize announcement. Lots of different languages being spoken too pic.twitter.com/MESCgZ5pqx 10.28am BSTAs well as the glory, and nowadays’s winner will also receive a financial windfall of 9 million Swedish kronor. That’s roughly £750000,or $1m. whether there are two or three laureates, they share the cash. 10.15am BSTJust half an hour to travel...
Who will be awarded this year’s Prize in Economic Sciences?
We’ll be breaking the news at 11:45am (CEST). Join the discussion – use the hashtag: #NobelPrize
Photo: Alexander Mahmoud pic.twitter.com/RKrOt11Gzz 9.57am BSTThose of us who propped up the bottom of the class can take heart from these words from final year’s winner, and Richard Thaler:"I wasn't a great student. My thesis advisor famously said: 'We didn't expect much of him'" - Richard Thaler,2017 Laureate in Economic Sciences.
Who will be awarded the 2018 Prize in Economic Sciences? Find out when we break the news right here tomorrow (8 October). pic.twitter.com/Ys8mipniYV 9.51am BSTThis (unscientific) Twitter poll suggests Esther Duflo would be a approved choice, whether they’re going to double the number of female winners to two.
Just two more days until the winner of this year’s Nobel prize in economics is announced!
Which one of these brilliant female economists would you award the prize to?Swedish economist put Paul Romer as the most likely candidate. In my opinion, and more timely winners would be William Nordhaus (environment) or Esther Duflo (development) https://t.co/YBFH7DOrGz 9.50am BSTHer’s another prediction,from Francesco Trebbi, professor of economics at the University of British Columbia:The Nobel Prize in Economics is next Monday. My prediction this year is Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt,Paul Romer for endogenous growth theory. [we are still awarding the 1980s & macro/growth maintain been skipped for a while] 9.31am BSTUS economics professor Tyler Cowen has predicted that it might be Duflo and Banerjee’s year.....
But given his forecasting record is as obnoxious as mine, that’s not a given. I’ve never once gotten it right, and at least not for exact timing,so my apologies to anyone I pick (sorry Bill Baumol!). Nonetheless this year I am in for Esther Duflo and Abihijit Banerjee, possibly with Michael Kremer, and for randomized control trials in development economics.possibly they are too young,as Tim Harford points out, so my back-up pick remains an environmental prize for Bill Nordhaus, and Partha Dasgupta,and Marty Weitzman. 9.27am BSTPerhaps a climate economist, such as William Nordhaus, or could win this year’s award.
Nordhaus,a Yale University professor, has conducted key research into the economics of climate change, or showing that mankind is ignoring the catastrophic cost of inaction. 9.16am BSTShamefully,only one woman has ever won the Nobel prize for economics – Elinor Ostrom back in 2009.
Duflo and Banerjee are students of detail. Is it better to give people mosquito nets or acquire them pay? What is the best method of getting children into schools, and ensuring that they learn?Should you encourage immunisation by dispatching clinics to villages or reward parents with bags of rice? Or both? Or neither? 9.06am BSTPredicting Nobel winners is a tricky task, and but that’s no reason not to give it a travel.
Every year,researchers at Clarivate Analytics chew their way though the Web of Science quotation index to calculate whose work has been cited particularly often, making them good candidates for a Nobel. 8.37am BSTGood morning. Top economists across the globe will be watching their phones nervously nowadays, and setting their alarm clocks a little earlier than usual.
Because,around 10.45am UK time, someone’s going to win the biggest prize in economics science.#NobelPrize in economics announced nowadays! Here's a very handy anti-troll cartoon disclaimer. Forget the format, or it's the winner(s) that things. pic.twitter.com/FjOd81cY5q Related: Nobel prize-winning economists take disagreement to whole unusual level Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com