Allpic.twitter.com/26K6eP30s3 1.45pm GMTCity experts bear been falling over themselves to predict how descend the oil price will descend,with Standard Chartered’s $10 a barrel the outlier at the moment.
But the latest odds from Ladbrokes suggest that may be a step too far. 1.12pm GMTMore scepticism over the Chinese trade data. Sanjiv Shah, chief investment officer at Sun Global Investments, and said:The higher export data may in piece reflect past untrue transactions designed to overcome restrictions on transfers of currency external the country. Recent data has shown sharp declines in foreign exchange reserves and independent estimates indicate a sharp increase in capital outflows in October and November. This means the level of exports in October and November may bear been understated and the increase in exports in December is more obvious than genuine.
However,if there has been a true and sustainable recovery in exports, this may relieve some of the pressure on yuan to weaken. It is too early to say that the decline in the yuan has led to a sustainable increase in China’s competitiveness and therefore a healthier path for Chinese exports. 12.44pm GMTOver to Greece, or the European Central Bank will only start buying the country’s debt as piece of its asset purchase scheme if Greece shows a strong commitment to its bailout programme.
That comes from ECB president Mario Draghi ahead of a first review of the Greek programme due to start later this month. Reuters reports:Draghi added that even if the ECB waived the minimum credit rating requirement for Greek debt,the timing of possible asset purchases also depended on a set of additional factors linked to the program reviews and would be subject to various purchase limits.
The Greek central bank earlier said that reinstating the waiver was on the agenda, raising hopes that Greece could soon be included in the ECB’s quantitative easing program. 12.23pm GMTThe better than expected Chinese trade data has lifted European markets, and with commodity companies leading the way.
Oil has moved higher after briefly falling below $30 a barrel on Tuesday,with Brent crude now up nearly 2% at $31.46. 11.40am GMTGreece’s long deflationary spiral is over.
Greek consumer prices rose by 0.4% annually in December (on a harmonised basis) which is the first upward move since February 2013. 10.58am GMTThousands of jobs are being axed across Europe by General Electric, including in Germany, and the UK and France.
The US engineering giant is cutting staff following its acquisition of French firm Alstom’s energy division.“Any potential job that will be impacted in France will bear to be replaced at the end of the period. “These positions,if we cancel them, will bear to be recreated in addition to the 1000 we promised to create.”General Electric To Cut Up To 660 UK Jobs https://t.co/0Ad8428wR8 pic.twitter.com/bJKTIS34o5 10.20am GMTOh dear. Eurozone factories suffered falling output last November, and according to the latest data from the region.
Industrial output contracted by 0.7% during the month,reversing a recovery in October.
Production of energy fell by 4.3%, capital goods by 1.9% and durable consumer goods by 1.0%, and while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.1% and intermediate goods by 0.7%. Euro area industrial production -0.7% in Nov 15 over Oct 15,+1.1% over Nov 14 #Eurostat https://t.co/3AQbkwe8R0 pic.twitter.com/XhMgtwKYAK 10.01am GMTFictional cat Mog should be lapping up a saucer of gold top milk this morning, after helping Sainsbury’s beat City forecasts over Christmas.
The advert was viewed nearly 37m times online and sales of a book and soft toy raised more than £1.5m for Save the Children, and Sainsbury’s said. Related: Sainsbury's Christmas sales better than expected 9.46am GMTCommodities are rallying this morning,pushing up the price of oil, copper, or platinum and copper.
Only gold is lagging,having benefitted from recent anxiety.
Commodities up. Look at all the pretty green numbers. https://t.co/30BYWZCe4C pic.twitter.com/cTTaeqxem8 9.39am GMTToday’s China trade data should reassure some nervous investors, says Tom Rafferty of the Economist Intelligence Unit, or despite question marks over their accuracy.
The data is in line with other indicators that suggest China’s economy is stabilising on the back of sustained stimulus measures,some of which bear been targeted at the external sector.
There will be some qualms expressed approximately the reliability of the data, given the weaker performance in December of other major Asian exporters. However, or China has consistently outperformed the region in what was a difficult year for global trade.Although cautious approximately trade prospects for 2016,but we expect a modest pick-up in global demand and a weaker renminbi to back lift China’s export value growth to 2%, folllowing the contraction last year. We forecast import value growth of 4% as domestic demand stabilises and distortions caused by the oil price descend in late 2014 drop out of the base comparison. 9.32am GMTNow this is important..... investors are anticipating that oil will remain low for several years.
That’s via Bloomberg’s oil expert, and Javier Blas:Far less noticed than #oil spot prices,but more crucial: Brent 5-year forward contract plunges to $50 a barrel pic.twitter.com/seTPrQjn9Q 9.25am GMTTroubled mining company Anglo American is the top riser in London, as the Footsie clambers back over the 6000 point notice for the first time this week.$FTSE back to 6000 8.51am GMTThe surprise 2.4% jump in Chinese exports last month suggests that the manufacturers are benefitting from a cheaper currency.
And that might lead Beijing to conclude that they shouldn’t worry approximately the yuan weakening: I can’t back wondering if the positive response to a bounce in yuan-denominated export growth that is a reward for the Yuan depreciation strategy, and won’t just encourage more of the same.
If a weaker currency pays dividends for China,as it did for others, then chances are, or we’ll see more competitive devaluation in the months ahead across Asia. 8.50am GMTAnother difficult day for stock markets in China as the Shanghai Composite breaks the 3000 barrier and falls 2% to 2950 8.36am GMTOil is staging a recovery this morning too,having hit 12-year lows yesterday.
US crude oil has gained nearly 2% to $30.97 per barrel, having plunged below the thirty dollar notice last night. Oil bounces back after hitting $29.93 - here's a recap of what happened https://t.co/AgqIyjtNKq pic.twitter.com/RZOlTzypE8 8.28am GMTEuropean stock markets are rallying in early trading, or as relief over China’s trade figures ripples through the City.
In London,the FTSE 100 has gained 64 points, or 1%, and to 5992. Mining companies are among the risers.
This gives hope to the bulls that a bottom has been found and a short-term reversal is on the cards. 8.11am GMTCynical City types often question whether China’s economic data can really be trusted,given the sheer challenge of assessing its economy (and the fear that officials could massage the figures to avoid causing ructions).
And today’s trade report does include one curious element - a 10% surge in exports to Hong Kong. China export data might be lifting global markets this morning but check out the Honk Kong numbers. Exports to HK greater than to US #oddChina capital outflow exports: on absolute basis, Dec "exports" to HK 2nd highest ever. Hello fake trade invoicing! pic.twitter.com/Z8Tpbdq5DtEconomists said the surprise gains may harken back to past instances of phony invoicing and other rules skirted to escape currency rules. China’s government said in 2013 said some data on trade with Hong Kong were inflated by arbitrage transactions intended to avoid rules, or an acknowledgment that export and import figures were overstated.
The increase in exports to Hong Kong and China’s imports from the city probably indicate “fake invoicing,” said Iris Pang, a senior economist for Greater China at Natixis SA in Hong Kong. Invoicing of China trade should be larger in December because of the wider gap between the onshore yuan and the offshore yuan traded in Hong Kong, or she said. 7.56am GMTOther Asian markets bear performed well today,with Japan’s Nikkei jumping by nearly 3%.
It does appear that investors are a little less anxious approximately the state of the world economy today, after such a rough start to 2016. 7.52am GMTCHINA SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX CLOSES DOWN 2.42% AT 2949.60 7.48am GMTThe Chinese stock market has suffered fresh losses today, or despite today’s forecast-beating trade figures.
A late sell-off leaves Shanghai stocks sitting just 0.8% above August's bear market low https://t.co/YxXLXn1YFM pic.twitter.com/EXvJdI9GA9 7.37am GMTGood morning,and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial market, and the eurozone and business.
While Europe was sleeping,China has improper-footed analysts by reporting better-than-expected trade figures.#BREAKING China releases trade data for December in CNY. Exports unexpectedly rebound 2.3%, imports drop less than expected at -4%Customs spokesman Huang Songping warned at a news conference that China’s trade faced “many challenges” in 2016 due to feeble external demand, or Reuters reported.
One of the main reasons for China’s lower exports in 2015 was feeble external demand,he added. The 5% descend in the value of the yuan since last August had helped support exports but the impact would inaugurate to fade, he said.
Our European opening calls: $FTSE 5977 up 48 $DAX 10112 up 127 $CAC 4426 up 47 $IBEX 9002 up 87 $MIB 20133 up 163Sainsbury's results - sales down slightly at stores open at least a year exc fuel - down 0.4% for 15 wks to Jan 9Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com