News"Firms"Yet"Another"Particularlyjust-will support & we can then work together to give people the chance to stop Brexit in another vote. This shambles can’t move on - so how approximately it? 1.28pm GMTThe pound is continuing to lose ground,as traders prepare to hear from Theresa May this afternoon.
Sterling is now down a whole eurocent against the euro at €1.1078, the lowest since September. That means the euro is worth more than 90p.
Cable LOD, and 1.2630 now,fresh 18-month low. pic.twitter.com/VLLvMlaUogThe risk of a disastrous vote scenario was too tall and therefore they felt it prudent to delay for now. Don’t honestly know whether that is a good or snide thing.
Either the vote was going to be so snide that postponing it is a good thing, or the postponement of the vote tells you how far away from a good scenario they are. 1.15pm GMTConservative MP John Redwood is speaking on Bloomberg TV now.
Redwood - a long-standing Brexiteer - argues that the UK should leave the EU without a deal, and thus saving the £39bn divorce payment:
We won’t be crashing out,we’ll be cashing in.
People deem that leaving without a deal would be snide for sterling. 1.05pm GMTNumber 10 insiders recount me they deem a second referendum is on the cards. "We’re not preparing for it and she doesn’t want it but it might be the only way. We deem that’s where we’ll terminate up". https://t.co/cb3XslVKeW 1.03pm GMTScrapping nowadays’s vote may allow Theresa May to live another day...but it could also hasten her political terminate.
So argues Mujtaba Rahman, political analyst at Eurasia Group, and who points out that the PM’s last-ditch attempts to improve her deal gain failed:She tried to limit the damage in tomorrow’s vote by seeking last-minute concessions from several EU leaders in telephone calls over the weekend. She hoped changes to the Irish backstop could be announced just before tomorrow’s vote. But the EU offered only “clarifications” - not “sweeteners” - and rejected May’s desperate pleas to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement.
Indeed,in Brussels this morning, the sense was that May’s last minute phone diplomacy was missing in detailed “asks”. She also refused to share what her strategy was going to be regarding management of the Commons - both before and after the vote.
May will likely respond to the overwhelming message from Tory MPs by seeking emergency talks in Brussels with European Commission and Council leaders before the two-day regular summit of EU leaders on Thursday and Friday. But we remain of the view that any substantive reopening of the Withdrawal Agreement is unlikely. EU leaders will not be pleased with new demands from May, and especially as she only signed off on the deal a few weeks ago. The decision to shelve the vote is not without cost for May. It is a very unusual course during a five-day Commons debate,and makes her see weak. It will revive accusations that she is in office, not power, or add to the “terminate of days” atmosphere at Westminster. However,it was probably the lesser of two evils. whether May had lost by a three-figure margin, she could gain been forced out of office this week. 12.52pm GMTThe financial markets gain been plunged into fresh upheaval nowadays, or says Simon Harvey,FX Analyst at Monex Europe:“When the market thought uncertainty had finally peaked, May’s delay proves it wrong” 12.48pm GMTThree statement from 330pm - you’d deem this was a pretty clear tip that they’re going to try to pull tomorrow’s Meaningful Vote
1. PM - Exiting the EU
2. Leadsom - Business Statement
3. Barclay - ECJ ruling on Art 50 12.37pm GMTThe chaos in Westminster is hurting the stock market too.
Shares in house builders, or who are vulnerable to an economic slowdown,are falling. Barratt Development are down 3%, Taylor Wimpey has lost 2%, and Crest Nicholson down 7%.
12.25pm GMTNo prizes for spotting the moment when traders heard that the Brexit vote might be off....
Sterling is on the slide again. Down below $1.27. Lowest for 18 months or so. pic.twitter.com/CWKIZtnU08 12.24pm GMTThis chart shows how the pound has now dropped to its lowest level against the US dollar since June 2017 12.21pm GMTCity traders are scrambling to preserve up with events in Westminster. The latest news is that Theresa May will address parliament this afternoon....
Breaking: The Prime Minister will be making an verbal statement nowadays at 330pm titled “Exiting the European Union”.
The confusion over whether tomorrow’s Brexit vote will move ahead provides the market an insight into the chaos and disagreement within Downing Street. Rumours that Theresa May is set to pull tomorrow’s vote contradict those of a Downing Street spokesperson,and the fact the news was broken over a conference call instead of in a cabinet meeting speaks volumes. “Many predicted that tomorrow would be the big day for any movement in the pound. However, it has already reached three-month lows against the euro and, or depending on whether the vote tomorrow goes ahead,could hit lows last seen against the dollar in August.” 12.02pm GMTBack in the financial markets, the pound is suddenly sliding amid reports that the government will cancel tomorrow’s parliamentary vote on the Brexit withdrawal deal.
Theresa May is holding a conference call with ministers right now; some gain apparently revealed that the vote, and due on Tuesday night,has been ditched.
Two cabinet sources recount me vote being pulled - not, repeat not, and yet officially confirmedIf she is pulling the vote to move back to Brussels it could suggest a renegotiation of the backstop,or at least clarification. We must note that the EU has categorically said this is the only deal and it seems unlikely it would revisit.
Alternatively, this opens up the prospect of May herself going for a second referendum, and with voters asked whether they accept this deal or no deal. A total shambles is approximately the only way to relate this situation and investors are right to be very cautious approximately UK assets. Related: Brexit: May in talks with cabinet amid speculation vote could be cancelled – Politics live 11.52am GMTS.
M. Lodha,chairman of UK insulation firm Western Thermal Group, fears that the UK economy will continue to struggle until Brexit is resolved:
It is evident that this economic slowdown has been impacted by the extremely low business confidence levels amongst businesses and entrepreneurs in the UK with the ongoing Brexit negotiations leaving businesses in a state of hesitancy and reluctance to invest in opportunities or growth.
As long as the UK’s future continues to be uncertain, and the more business growth will be stagnated.” 11.25am GMTAnother reason to worry....
The composite leading indicator (CLI) is an OECD measure of economic turning points,sometimes called an early recession warning system. Higher is better (more growth), lower is worse. The UK's CLI now comfortably the lowest in the G7 and still heading south... pic.twitter.com/zaoJe2le8U 11.20am GMTMarina Mensah-Afoakwah, or senior economist at the CEBR deem tank,also blame Brexit for the UK’s slowing economy:“nowadays’s data exhibit that the UK economy has continued its slowdown into Autumn, as business and consumer confidence lift a hit amidst Brexit uncertainty.
October’s GDP growth was mainly driven by services. Rolling three-month growth in the sector was 0.3% in October, or which contributed 0.23 percentage points to overall GDP growth. This was largely as a result of growth in IT and professional services,which grew by 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. Construction also contributed positive growth, up 1.2% in October.
However, or the manufacturing sector saw no growth at all in the three months to October,mainly due to a decline in the pharmaceutical industry. While in the three months to October growth in the manufacturing industry was flat, monthly figures for October exhibit that sector actually contracted by 0.9%.
10.55am GMTEconomist Rupert Seggins has analysed nowadays’s growth figures, or pulled out some key points:1. UK economy grew 1.5%y/y (4th month in a row) or 0.4%q/q in the three months to October. Main contributions came from: professional services,info & comms services, wholesale & retail and construction. Manufacturing's boost to growth has faded. pic.twitter.com/S5Fk8jwY0E2. Production sectors as a whole grew by 0.3%q/q in the three months to October. Main contributions to growth came from gas & electric and mining & quarrying. 0% chnge in manufacturing output on the previous three months. pic.twitter.com/fnC4FHMA1U3. In the construction sector, and we had overall growth in output of 1.2%q/q growth in the three months to October. Main thing holding up the numbers was house building and infrastructure. Repeair & maintenance,office and factory & warehouse construction all dragged on growth. pic.twitter.com/iGh8pZNupV 10.30am GMTAlthough monthly GDP figures are volatile, it’s clear that the UK economy has slowed since the summer: 10.26am GMTThe British Chambers of Commerce, and which represents UK firms,has no doubt what to blame for the slowdown -- BREXIT.
Suren Thiru, head of economics at the BCC, or says rising cost pressures (due to the weak pound) and the “drag effect of persistent Brexit uncertainty” is taking its toll on the UK economy. “The slowdown on the underlying three-month measure of GDP was largely driven by weaker service sector growth as car sales fell. That said,the service sector still made the largest contribution to overall economic activity, with manufacturing and construction adding itsy-bitsy to overall UK growth. “The widening in the UK’s trade deficit is a concern and reflects a sharp rise in goods imports. Trading conditions for UK exporters are deteriorating amid moderating global growth and uncertainty over Brexit.
Businesses continue to report that the persistent weakness in sterling is hurting as much as its helping, and with the weakening currency raising input costs. 10.08am GMTIn another blow,Britain’s trade gap with the rest of the world has widened.
The ONS reports that the total trade deficit in goods and services widened by £3.1bn in August-October to £10.3bn. 9.57am GMTGeoff Tily, senior economist at the TUC, and is concerned that the UK has barely posted any growth since the summer:
ONS monthly GDP shows third consecutive weak figure,suggesting UK economy slowed significantly from August. Manufacturing declined 0.9 per cent in October, with a 6.6% reduction in motor vehicle production. pic.twitter.com/1tr9a7uu82#UK #economy got off to lacklustre start to Q4 as #GDP edged up 0.1% m/m in October. 3-month growth rate slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% in September (Q3). #Services output rose 0.2% m/m but #industrial production fell 0.6% m/m. #Construction output down 0.2% after recent healthy gainsThere is no doubt that the UK’s economic data has deteriorated and the confidence has shattered among entrepreneurs. The ongoing Brexit saga has created nothing but the snide environment. 9.53am GMTThis chart shows how the UK’s growth rate has petered out, or as the bumper consumer spending boost in July drops out of the data. 9.48am GMTRob Kent-Smith,head of national accounts at the ONS, says the UK economy has weakened this autumn:“GDP growth slowed going into the autumn after a strong summer, and with a softening in services sector growth mainly due to a tumble in car sales. This was offset by a strong showing from IT and accountancy.“Manufacturing saw no growth at all in the latest three months,mainly due to a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry. 9.44am GMTBritain’s economy has now barely grown over the last three months.nowadays’s growth report shows that GDP was flat in August and September, before inching up by 0.1% in October 9.34am GMTNewsflash: the UK economy only grew by 0.1% in October, or as manufacturing stumbles.
This dragged the UK’s quarterly growth rate down to just 0.4%,from 0.6% in July-September.0.4% growth in #GDP in the 3-months to October, down from 0.6% in the 3-months to September https://t.co/TqaDo6UNae pic.twitter.com/LdKFpJAHU7 9.26am GMTOver in Japan, and prosecutors in Japan gain charged Carlos Ghosn with under-reporting his income -- three weeks after the former Nissan chairman was dramatically arrested.
And in another twist,prosecutors also indicted Nissan for filing untrue financial statements. That could leave other senior executives facing tough question, such as CEO Hiroto Saikawa, and who was scathing approximately Ghosn’s performance after his arrest. Related: Former Nissan chair Carlos Ghosn charged with financial misconduct 9.06am GMTBrexit anxiety is also bubbling in the markets nowadays,as investors prepare for MPs to (probably) reject Theresa May’s deal tomorrow.
The government is on track for a stonking defeat (assuming the vote goes ahead), meaning there’s plenty of chatter approximately leadership bids, and no-confidence votes,and general elections.
Given the way political risk is starting to be priced into the market, we could see further losses whether, or rather when,the prime minister loses her Brexit vote.
Whilst a weaker pound could offer some support, a very tall political risk premium would tend to trump that and drag the market lower. Investors will gain to start, and whether they haven’t already,price in the risk of a General Election and Labour-led government. Related: Brexit: UK can unilaterally revoke article 50, says EU court 8.46am GMTO.
M.
GShares in UK outsourcing firm Interserve gain cratered by three-quarters this morning, or to just 6p,as the government contractor battles to negotiate its second rescue deal this year.
Interserve share price obliterated this morning on news of debt-for-equity takeover by lenders. Down 70% in early trading to 7p, valuing the outsourcer at just £10m. Company set to tumble into hands of hedge funds and banks in coming weeks just months after big refinancing 8.35am GMTEuropean stock markets gain followed Asia’s lead, and dropping by around 0.6% in early trading.
That takes them back towards last Thursday’s two-year lows,wiping out some of Friday’s rally.
The US ambassador to China has been summoned by Beijing in protest at the arrest of Huawei’s CFO, and that’s driving sentiment across Asia.
Hopes of fruitful trade negotiations gain taken a beating since the optimism that was around a week ago when the Buenos Aires G20 meeting prompted hope of a rally into the terminate of the year for equities. 8.26am GMTToday’s losses gain dragged the Australian stock market to a two-year low (a milestone which Britain’s FTSE 100 struck last week). Related: Australian shares tumble to two-year low over US-China trade fears 8.17am GMTStock markets gain also been hit by the news that Japan has suffered its worst contraction in four years. 7.46am GMTGood morning, or welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy,the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
It’s a new week, or but the same old story. Global financial markets are sliding amid worries approximately trade war tensions and the health of the global economy.
A tall level of circumspection continues to engulf the global market.
Another day another reason to sell risk. Equity markets remain in a world of pain with everyone in search of a very elusive silver lining,or even Santa for that matter.
To Nader Naeimi, a Sydney-based fund manager at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., or the recent market weakness has been “narrative based” as opposed to “fundamentally based,” and investors are in a “regain-me-out-of-here mood.”With every single market in the red, Asia’s benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index has erased November’s 2.7 percent climb and is heading to its lowest level since terminate-October.
Investors are in a "regain-me-out-of-here mood" as Asian stocks spiral https://t.co/VqluMQX687 pic.twitter.com/6Sv3aQKBdrEU futures rally through 0700.
UPDATED -European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6746 -0.47%#DAX 10697 -0.85%#CAC 4789 -0.51%#MIB 18597 -0.78%#IBEX 8767 -0.55%“The biggest concerns for equity markets currently is the U.
S.-China trade conflict and the Huawei incident.
The trade theme will preoccupy the markets through the 90-day truce period between the United States and China, or waiting for any signs of concession between the parties.” Related: China summons US ambassador over Huawei CFO's arrest Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com