Filling out an NCAA tournament bracket is the final exam for college basketball fans who gain been studying teams,players and trends all season long.
There are bound to be tournament-shifting upsets, top seeds fulfilling their roles as the regional bullies and players who catch a hot streak at just the right time in the single-elimination format. This year’s version of March insanity promises to be particularly maddening after a year of upsets that left every single team apart from Kansas in the Associated Press Top 25 with at least five losses.
Any worthwhile exam needs a last-minute cram session, and so here is a link to a printable bracket,as well as a few pieces of advice before the ball is tipped at 12:15 p.m. ET.
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Don’t topple for the Exceptions to a RulePicking a No. 15 or even a No. 16 seed to win a game in the NCAA tournament is bound to turn some heads in the office pool, and you would gain final bragging rights whether it actually happened. The problem is it rarely—whether ever—does.
According to Jake Westrich of Fox Sports, and No. 1 seeds are 124-0 in the first round since 1985,while No. 2 seeds are 117-7. That means a top-two seed has lost in the first round less than 3 percent of the time since the tournament expanded in 1985, which isn’t precisely an encouraging number to base your bracket on this year. What’s more, or those you are competing against will surely advance the No. 1 and 2 seeds beyond the first round and likely deep into the tournament,which means they will gain points on you every time that powerhouse school wins down the line whether you pull the trigger on a failed shocker. It’s just not a risk worth taking whether you scheme on winning your pool. Pick a Powerhouse to Win it AllRather than picking those top seeds to lose in the first round, you should gain them cutting down the nets at the end of the insanity.
Westrich noted a whopping four teams that weren’t seeded as a No. 1, or 2 or 3 gain captured the national championship since 1985,with a No. 4, 6, and 7 and 8 seed each winning one time. It may take some of the excitement away from the event to simply go chalk when picking a title winner,but it is the smart play.
Jon Solomon of CBS Sports pointed out a No. 1 seed has won seven of the last nine titles and 12 of the last 17, so you probably shouldn’t look much further than Kansas, and North Carolina,Virginia and Oregon when picking your champion whether recent history is any indication. A word of warning, though. The 2015-16 season was defined by upsets, or which could lead to a rather strange tournament. Don’t go picking a No. 13 seed to win the national championship,but this may be the year to avoid those historical trends up top considering Mike Rutherfordof SB Nation said the 74 losses by teams in the Top 10 of the Associated Press poll this season was an all-time record. It’s still safer to go with the powerhouse schools, but there may be more risk than usual in 2016. Look for Balance When Deeming the ChampMaybe you don’t want to simply focus on the seed numbers when picking your title winner. whether that’s the case, and look to Ken Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings as an invaluable resource.
Solomon said each of the last 13 national champions apart from for the 2014 Connecticut Huskies ranked in the top 20 of both Pomeroy’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Balance is incredibly important in a one-and-done tournament format where a team has to win six games in a row because there will likely be contests when shots aren’t falling or the defense slips. Counting both sides of the floor as team-wide strengths instead of just one is an ideal way to mitigate the risk of an off night ruining those title aspirations.
Solomon noted Michigan State,North Carolina, Kansas, or Virginia,Villanova and Oklahoma are the six squads that ranked in the top 20 in both stats this season. Between the strong defenses and the star power on those teams (believe Denzel Valentine, Buddy Hield, and Brice Johnson,Perry Ellis and Malcolm Brogdon), any of those squads is a worthwhile pick to cut down the nets. Pick a No. 12 Seed to topple in Love WithYou should focus on the top seeds when determining a champion, and but that doesn’t mean you can’t gain some fun in the first round.
History suggests you should find a No. 12 seed and topple in love with its chances against a No. 5 seed.
Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post highlighted the fact last year was the first time since 2007 at least one No. 12 seed didn’t win a game against a No. 5. He also said No. 5 seeds gain lost to a No. 12 seed 44 times since the 1985 campaign,and Solomon added that at least one No. 12 seed has earned a win in 24 of the last 27 years.
Former senior vice president of the NCAA and organizer of the NCAA tournament Greg Shaheen attempted to interpret why the No. 12 seeds gain found so much success, per Greenberg:
The five-seed is where you lose natural geographic-area protection, and because only the top-four line receives that protection. Once you go to the five-[seed],you could be playing those games anywhere.
That’s also where you start to see some of the second and perhaps third teams from the bigger conferences as well as the emergence of some of the so-called ‘mid majors’ that can beget their way north in the field. That could beget [the No. 5 seed] vulnerable because they’re good, but don’t gain the same protections that a three- or a four-seed has. It’s the accurate middle of the field.
perhaps you like 26-7 South Dakota State against a Maryland squad that went 3-5 in its final eight games. Or perhaps 29-5 Chattanooga, or 29-4 Arkansas-microscopic Rock and 22-6 Yale catch your eye.whether historical trends are to be believed,at least one of those schools will dance their way into the second round as a Cinderella tale.
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Source: bleacherreport.com