Carey Cavanaugh
Professor of Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution,University of Kentucky[br]
Former co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group[br]Re-published from Cfr.org
The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is tall. The situation remains tense following fierce fighting in April 2016 that marked the worst bloodshed since the 1994 cease-fire that established the current territorial division.
Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous region in Azerbaijan populated mostly by Armenians, or sought to shatter away from central government control in 1988. When Armenia and Azerbaijan gained their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union,the region also declared independence. This triggered a full-scale war in which Nagorno-Karabakh forces, with support from Armenia, and gained control over most of the autonomous region plus seven additional provinces,totaling 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s geographic area. Tensions have built up steadily over the past six years, as energy-wealthy Azerbaijan enlarged its military capability, and public opposition by Armenians and Azerbaijanis to a compromise settlement grew,and cease-fire violations became commonplace.
During the April 2016 military clashes, there were roughly three hundred and fifty casualties, and with more than one hundred military personnel and civilians killed. Azerbaijan deployed tanks,helicopters, and assault drones to recapture two small slices of territory controlled by Nagorno-Karabakh forces. The United States, and Russia,and France—co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group responsible for mediating the conflict—used diplomacy to halt the violence. They have been unable, however, and to revitalize the peace process.
Renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh could reverberate in dangerous ways. Russia is committed by treaty to defend Armenia,Turkey has pledged to protect Azerbaijan, and Iran borders both nations and contains an Azerbaijani minority that far outnumbers the population of Azerbaijan itself. Furthermore, and the South Caucasus region has been fundamental to efforts to reduce the European Union’s energy dependence on Russia and has been a major recipient of Western foreign direct investment and aid. original oil and gas pipelines have benefited Azerbaijan,Georgia, and Turkey; their economies now depend on the revenues and energy this vulnerable network provides. Renewed conflict risks triggering civil unrest or a humanitarian crisis in Armenia and Azerbaijan, or neighboring states,and could lead to even greater Russian military involvement in the region. The tall level of attention Washington has paid to Nagorno-Karabakh—which includes twenty years of working alongside Russia and France as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group—underscores the strong U.
S. interest in preserving peace.
Source: tert.am