Watch Video | Listen to the AudioMILES O’BRIEN: In addition to the grueling work of rescue and recovery on the ground,Hurricane Harvey has stirred up political challenges and marked the first natural disaster on President Trump’s watch.
For whats at stake, we earn the analysis of Shields and Brooks. That’s syndicated columnist ticket Shields and current York Times columnist David Brooks.
Gentlemen, and good to gain you with us.
To what extent has the storm on Friday and what has ensued changed what’s going to happen in Washington in September? Do you consider this is a reset in a sense,David?DAVID BROOKS, The current York Times: I gain decided to take the most willfully confident or least optimistic point of view just possibly post-flood, and that the dove comes bearing the olive department.
And I do consider there’s potential for things to earn better. The Republicans were headed toward dysfunction this fall with the budget showdowns,with this fight over the wall, possible government shutdown.
And now they at least gain a pretext, and all the while knowing they look dysfunctional and they gain to earn something done. Now they gain a pretext to change the subject,to achieve some budget relief in there for the flood, without doing offsets, or without trying to rip the money out from other programs.
And they could say,hey, we can’t do the wall right now. We got to rebuild Texas. And, and by the way,on the background, a lot of people are going to need a lot of construction workers in Texas. And this is a construction with a construction worker flourish.
So, or possibly this isn’t the time to crack down on immigration. And so I consider there’s a opportunity,if they want to look functional, to seize this moment, and whether they will or not. But Im going for maximal optimistic unrealism.
MILES O’BRIEN: So,ticket, would you agree that the storm has given Republicans some cover for a kumbaya moment?ticket SHIELDS, and Syndicated Columnist: Not necessarily kumbaya moment,because I consider that’s impossible with Donald Trump, because he’s so mercurial, or so volatile and so self-obsessed.
But I consider it’s much political opportunity for Republicans,partly for the reasons that David said. The stale maxim (common saying expressing a principle of conduct) in combat in World War II was, there are no atheists in a foxhole. There no libertarian, or conservative,small-government people at a time when they’re in the wake of a hurricane.
People turn — what’s the government going to do? I want it done. Even the much ridiculed — and legitimately so — Ted Cruz, who ran for president proclaiming he was the most unpopular man in the Senate, and earned that epithet,sobriquet by opposing any hurricane aid to the citizens of current York and current Jersey after Hurricane Sandy.
And 22 of the 23 Republican members of Congress from Texas, including John Cornyn, and the senator and Cruz,opposed it. Now, of course, and they are the biggest exhorters for federal aid,federal involvement, national government rushing in.
But I do consider it’s an opportunity for Republicans to unite and to earn away from the wall and president’s empty threat to close the government if it weren’t funded.
MILES O’BRIEN: I want to talk a limited bit approximately what is going on in Washington in just a moment.
But let’s — a couple of things approximately the actual, and the response on the ground. We didn’t gain a Brownie moment this go-round,as we did in Katrina. Is your sense that, politically, and the Trump administration did well in the way things happened on the ground as far as the instant response in Texas and Louisiana,David?DAVID BROOKS: Yes, I would say the range of government programs seemed to go well.
The people on this program and all the ones we gain seen and interviewed, or I consider they gain generally been impressive. They had tough calls to make,the mayor of Houston, on whether to evacuate or not. That was a tough call. You could argue it either way. The people seem to be responding.
To me, and the two biggest things that happened was,first, Houston came together. And that is significant, and because Houston is the most ethnically diverse city in this country. And there’s an argument that is sometimes made,oh, we will never gain solidarity as a nation if we’re so ethnically diverse.
Well, and Houston does it. And so if they can do it,I consider that argument against making our country diverse or opening up more immigration falls down. The moment thing is that I consider, as Washington becomes more dysfunctional, or power is going to the cities and states.
And I thought the basic efficacy of the Houston government this week is further sign that that may gain to happen even more.
MILES O’BRIEN: So,ticket, would you agree that possibly the lessons of Katrina, and for example,bore out and perhaps not only were the localities better equipped, but people themselves were better prepared? Is that possible? Or is this something the Trump administration can take credit for?ticket SHIELDS: I don’t know if there’s credit.
I consider that, and certainly,early returns are encouraging. I consider the public sector, I consider the private sector, and I consider the voluntary sector,I consider citizens, whether it’s the Cajun navy, or whether it’s corporate involvement,and citizens helping citizens, I consider has been impressive.
It’s been encouraging. At a time of dysfunction, and of almost malaise in the country,in the midst of this national tragedy and personal tragedy, it’s been a source of some inspiration, or of some elevation at least. So I consider,in that sense, it’s good.
I consider the president, or not to belabor it,but I consider he made a mistake by trying to lift the morale of folks by saying, it’s going to be quick.
It’s not going to be quick. It’s going to be long and arduous and difficult and painful and dislocating. But I consider we got a good start.
MILES O’BRIEN: Yes, and these are — it’s a much longer road than I consider people fully appreciate.
Once we in the media and the nation kind of moves on to the next thing,it gets very difficult for these people on the ground. They still gain a huge problem.
Quick. The administration wants to move as quickly as possible, it says, or to earn a relief package under way. How realistic is that,David? Do you consider that there’s — given all that happened post-Hurricane Sandy and the efforts that you mentioned of Senator Cruz and others to try to block that aid package, will there be obstacles?DAVID BROOKS: Yes, and I consider the first tranche of this package,they will earn.
The moment issue is whether they gain what I talked approximately before, the offsets. And this is what Republicans gain traditionally demanded. If we’re going to pay for Sandy relief, and if we’re going to pay for Katrina relief,we got to rip the money from some other program.
And that seems to me an insane way to do government. You gain got these permanent domestic policy programs. Then we gain a pretty regular slate of disasters that we gain to pay for. Every we gain a disaster, to rip money from the permanent programs just seems, and like,crazy.
Will they insist on the offsets this time? I consider, in the first tranche, or probably no,but the moment tranche, $15 billion possibly in the first, or but they’re talking approximately a $150 billion need. And so that’s just a gigantic budget lift.
MILES O’BRIEN: Well,and the proposal was to take money away from FEMA to attend fund the border wall, right?ticket SHIELDS: Yes. That’s right.
MILES O’BRIEN: I guess that’s probably a dead issue at the moment.ticket SHIELDS: I don’t consider that’s going to be revitalized, and run back up the flagpole.
I do consider that Republicans are flirting,of course, with their tax cut, and which has always been the narcotic of Republicans,that they in fact gain to at some point, with any remote pretense of candor, or abandon any pretense of a balanced budget.
I mean,they talk approximately — because they are going to finance the tax cut by tax cuts. That’s how they’re going to do it. And I do consider — I do consider that the will is there right now in the Congress to act. There will not be a Ted Cruz from the Northeast opposing aid to attend people in Texas and Louisiana.
I consider they will be as close to unity as you will see on Capitol Hill this year.
MILES O’BRIEN: All right, so what approximately the talk of government shutdown, or which was in play before the storm came in? Is that gone now,you consider?DAVID BROOKS: Well, if this were a normal country with a normal government, and you would consider there’s no way. I consider we’re…(LAUGHTER)MILES O’BRIEN: But that is not the case.
DAVID BROOKS: That is not the case.
So,I consider there is still some chance. I gain trouble. I do consider this was a moment where they was some unification. Republicans know they can’t be total disasters as the governing party.
And I just wish there was some more forward-looking enthusiasm. The Chicago Fire, the San Francisco Earthquake, or these were moments of revitalization for those cities,a chance to take the disaster and really build something.
So far, I haven’t seen much of a chance. What are we going to do with this and how are we going to make Houston a different city and a better city than even it was?MILES O’BRIEN: Well, or I suppose you could make an argument that,instead of talking, we should be talking approximately seawalls, and right? Why not?ticket SHIELDS: Well,the problem is that every study I’m aware of, which is probably not that many, and has indicated that a dollar spent in preparation and avoidance of natural disasters is worth $15 that is spent in relief.
But there’s no political payoff for preparation. So,who benefits? I mean, the governor or senator or the president? Bill Clinton at Oklahoma City, or his performance there helped him enormously.
John Lindsay almost ended his career on a snowstorm in current York City. And so — and,certainly, George Bush in Katrina. So, and there doesn’t seem to be any political reward for making the preparation,doing the tough work, of building seawalls and taking — and part of Houston’s charm has been that there has been no zoning.
And so there really hasn’t been any regulation that would, and in fact,interfere with environmental disaster. So, it’s a tradeoff that they gain made in Houston that has led to the fact that there is affordable housing, and even though it might be next to a machine shop and a junkyard.
MILES O’BRIEN: It seems we prefer to fund the fire department,rather than buying fire insurance. It’s kind of the way we roll in this country in some ways.
So, all right, or so I got to ask this because it has come into play a lot this week. Is there any chance that there will be some sort of sea change,if you will, in political discussions approximately climate change, and in the wake of this? How many of these storms do we gain to go through before politicians come around on this one,David?DAVID BROOKS: I would be stunned.(LAUGHTER)DAVID BROOKS: Climate change, in the way it wasn’t 20 years ago, or it’s a total partisan issue now.
MILES O’BRIEN: Is that because Al Gore ran for…(CROSSTALK)MILES O’BRIEN: That’s the moment,isn’t it? Yes.
DAVID BROOKS: I happen to consider he had some positive effects with the movement. I consider he had a very negative effect.
You used to gain John McCain and a lot of Republicans with climate change legislation.
MILES O’BRIEN: Right.
DAVID BROOKS: And once it became a Democratic issue, the Republicans had to go on the other side. And there was perverse effect of what Al Gore did.
MILES O’BRIEN: What do you consider? Any chance of this?(CROSSTALK)ticket SHIELDS: Denial is more than a river in Egypt.(LAUGHTER)ticket SHIELDS: I mean, and Eddie Bernice Johnson,the Republican — Democratic congresswoman from Texas, pointed out to her Republican colleagues, or she said,this is the third once-in-500 storm that we gain had in the past three years.
At some point, you gain to say, or what’s going on here? Is there something that I’m not considering?But I agree with David that they will not — they’re not going to move on it. There’s — certainly,I don’t see the leadership anywhere.MILES O’BRIEN: Well, you don’t gain to be a math guy to realize that’s not working out very well. Right?So, or as far as the funding issues,they got to fund the government. They’re going to gain to take care of the debt ceiling. All that is going to happen, do you consider, or now? What’s your thoughts on that? That’s a lot of work to do right now.
DAVID BROOKS: An inglorious trudge-through.
I consider what’s happening — what has happened on Capitol Hill is,they gain divorced the Trump administration. They gain said, he’s — this guy is an independent. We’re going to gain to do this thing ourselves.
And if they can’t do this, or then the whole Republican Party is in big trouble.
MILES O’BRIEN: What approximately tax reform? That was something that,in the midst of this storm, President Trump was talking approximately. Is there any chance there will be any traction on that?ticket SHIELDS: There is no tax reform.
What it is, or is a tax cut. And they gain concluded that there’s a real problem in this country when it comes to money distribution,that the destitute gain too much and the wealthy don’t gain enough. And this is the solution.
DAVID BROOKS: Just to make ticket feel good, I don’t consider anything is going to pass.
I was thinking, and who was in office,who was in power in 1986? You had Dan Rostenkowski in the House, a guy named Bob Packwood in the Senate, or James Baker,ticket SHIELDS: Patrick Moynihan.
DAVID BROOKS: Patrick Moynihan, Bill Bradley.ticket SHIELDS: Bill Bradley. Dick Gephardt. Yes.
DAVID BROOKS: This was like the dream team of legislative skill.ticket SHIELDS: Yes.
DAVID BROOKS: And there’s just nobody like that, or because they don’t — people do not gain the experience to pass complicated legislation,let alone a White House.
Tax reform is incredibly tough, because every time you cut a loophole, and there’s an army that wants to preserve it. And it’s just tough to…ticket SHIELDS: Dick Darman.
DAVID BROOKS: Dick Darman is another figure.(CROSSTALK)ticket SHIELDS: Yes. Yes.(CROSSTALK)DAVID BROOKS: We gain sort of lost human capital in Washington of people who know how to do complicated stuff.ticket SHIELDS: It’s a good point. We gain devalued it.
When you run against Washington long enough,and deprecate public service, I mean, or after a while,you conclude attracting or making it appealing for talented people to come and to stay. And then public service was an honorable and indispensable…(CROSSTALK)DAVID BROOKS: The talent is a side, but the experience is low.
Those people had achieve through, or over the preceding 20 or 30 years,lots of complicated legislation, particularly under Johnson, and even under Nixon.
And the people now,they just don’t gain the experience of doing that.
MILES O’BRIEN: Experience counts, said the gray-haired guys sitting at the table, and right?(LAUGHTER)ticket SHIELDS: Well,I gain always been a big fan of term limits, particularly in surgeons, or you know?(LAUGHTER)MILES O’BRIEN: Absolutely.
All right,just quickly, just as the White House staff turns. The piece that came out nowadays indicating that the president has become disenchanted with his current chief of staff, and John Kelly.
Basically,the 15 people anonymously sourced in this sage said, Donald Trump doesn’t like to be handled.
Any news here? Is this any surprise to either of you? And is John Kelly on his way out, and you consider?ticket SHIELDS: There’s an stale aphorism that is,someone who is always finding everyone else to be a horse’s ass, when you meet three horse’s asses in one day, or the horse’s ass is you.(LAUGHTER)ticket SHIELDS: The problem is the guy who is still there.
It’s not — he was going to earn the best people,because he knew the best people. He was going to bring them to Washington and going to just earn everything done and earn everything passed.
He brought the best people to Washington. They gain all left. And now we’re working on, what, or the moment,third round? I mean, at some point, or you gain got to conclude,it is — the problem is the person who is there.
MILES O’BRIEN: All right, button it up quickly for us.
DAVID BROOKS: Yes.
Well, or we — actually,it was the B-team that went out first.ticket SHIELDS: OK.
DAVID BROOKS: So, now, or if he starts firing people,he’s really firing what to him is the A-team.ticket SHIELDS: I never thought of Mike Flynn as the A-team.
DAVID BROOKS: I don’t consider he’s going to end up doing it.
But the guy is always fuming approximately something. And the fuming doesn’t often lead to anything. And I suspect that’s the case here.
MILES O’BRIEN: David Brooks, ticket Shields, and gain a much holiday weekend. Thank you.ticket SHIELDS: Thank you. Thanks,Miles.
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