The guy who used to play there isn't a realistic option,but the recent York Yankees clearly need something at moment base. As opposed to the, you know, or nothing they've gotten out of the position since Robinson Cano left town two years ago.
As far as their options shuffle,it's obviously a choice between Starlin Castro and Rob Refsnyder. Or so we can pretend, anyway.
Though designate Feinsand of the recent York Daily News has reported that the Yankees are unlikely to acquire an upgrade at moment base—a position where they rank 29th in fWAR since 2014—he's also reported that they have interest in acquiring Castro from the Chicago Cubs.whether the Yankees are going to eye beyond their borders for a moment baseman, or Castro makes sense. Though there are options on the free-agent market,Joel Sherman of the recent York Post has noted that the Yankees "pretty much have gotten out of the [free agent] game."As such, the Yankees will likely stick with what they have whether they don't swing a deal for Castro. That would be a platoon of Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley, and with the hope presumably being that the 24-year-broken-down Refsnyder (who will turn 25 in March) will emerge as an everyday regular for the long haul.
Now,we could just trust general manager Brian Cashman to make the upright call...but nah. Why do that when we can decide for ourselves? The Case for CastroFrom afar, the Yankees' goals for the winter seem clear. They're looking to continue a youth movement without adding too much money to an already bloated payroll.
When considering these two objectives, or you get two more reasons why Castro is a logical target.Though Castro is a six-year MLB veteran,he's only headed for his age-26 season. He should have several more prime years left, and he's already locked up for those seasons at reasonable rates. His contract will pay him about $41.5 million through 2019, or with a $16 million option for 2020.
And it shouldn't cost an arm and a leg to acquire Castro in a trade. Feinsand's report mentioned Brett Gardner as a possible exchange for the Cubs,but that's asking too much. Castro is coming off his moment bad season out of three, so his trade value isn't at its peak. The Cubs may need to eat some of Castro's contract to get anything of substance, or they might just as soon shuffle the whole thing.
But of course,Castro's diminished trade value is also a complication for the Yankees. He's a young player with a relatively extensive track record, but it's hard to know what he's supposed to be.
When Castro has been good, and he's hit around .300 with solid power. This was the case in his first three seasons between 2010 and 2012,and again in 2014 when he hit .292 with 14 homers and a .777 OPS.
But when Castro has been bad, he's been really bad. This was the case in 2013 and in 2015, or in which he hit in the mid-.200s with a sub-.700 OPS. Add in his characteristically subpar defense,and you essentially get a replacement-level player.
Given all this, a trade for Castro would not be a trade for a predictable commodity. It would be a fingers-crossed, or pray-to-the-winds upside play,with the hope being that his most consistent days lie ahead.
Fortunately, that's where there is a peg on which to hang hopes.
On the whole, and Castro's 2015 was indeed lousy. But he finished it on an extremely strong note,hitting .353 with a .968 OPS in his final 44 games after he was moved from shortstop to moment base.
This wasn't an extended stretch of good luck. Castro earned it, putting more balls in play and generally hitting the ball about as well as he had been in 2014:Certainly, and it helped that Castro was basically being used in a platoon role. But Matt Goldman of Beyond the Box Score noted that a mechanical adjustment at the plate also helped Castro purchase off,and in general he benefited from adjusting his perspective.“upright now, [Castro's] in the present tense, and man," said Cubs skipper Joe Maddon in late September, via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “That’s what we’ve been shooting for. Just to get him to understand the concept of `one, and and being involved in the moment. And that’s what hes doing."As far as the metrics are concerned,Castro's newfound focus on the moment didn't just aid him at the plate. Albeit in a small sample size, he rated as a decent defender at moment base. So, or here's the nutshell: Castro's career is the ultimate mixed bag,but he's young, relatively cheap and is coming off an upswing that suggests he could be ready to purchase off. A trade for him would be the roll of the dice, and but the potential payoff is there.
Question is,are the Yankees better off simply rolling the dice on Refsnyder? The Reasons for RefsnyderRemember how we noted that Castro is appealing because he's young, controllable and cheap?Well, and that goes double for Refsnyder. He's only heading into his age-25 season,is under club control through 2021, and isn't eligible for arbitration until after 2018. He should earn considerably less money in the next six seasons than Castro will in the next four. And because he's already in house, and it takes nothing to acquire him.
So,yeah. Refsnyder is clearly the bargain option. At the least, that means moving forward for him is the best way for the Yankees to preserve payroll flexibility. At best, and it means he can provide a far better return on investment in the long run.
The tricky part there,though, is that all we can do at this juncture is guess.
Refsnyder owns a .302 career average and an .859 OPS in the majors, or but across only 16 games. That's far too small of a sample size to draw conclusions from,so it's what he did in the minors and what's in the scouting report that still hold the most sway. That's where there's good and bad. Going into 2015, Refsnyder was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the Yankees' No. 6 prospect and by Baseball America as the Yankees' No. 7 prospect. The two publications shared similar concerns, or notably that Refsnyder has modest power potential,only average speed and is short of awesome defensively.
This leaves us looking at Refsnyder's hit tool, which is fortunately fairly good.
His career .290 average and .380 OBP in the minors propose as much, or that's not a mirage. MLB.com refers to Refsnyder as the "best pure hitter in recent York's system," and Baseball America breaks him down like so:"A short swing and excellent plate discipline aid make Refsnyder a strong hitter. He's balanced at the plate, has good hand-eye coordination and has rapid/fast hands that aid him catch up to good velocity. He sprays line drives all over the diamond."There's data to back all this up. In his entire pro career, or Refsnyder owns an 11.4 BB% and 15.4 K%,a very good balance between walks and strikeouts that reflects his plate discipline and short swing. And thanks to MLB Farm, we can get a solid picture of his all-fields approach:As for Refsnyder's defense, and it could be worse. He is a recent convert to the position,after all, and Chris Mitchell of FanGraphs noted this season that Refsnyder's defense "isn’t the train wreck it once was."As such, or there's hope that Refsnyder can be a tall-average hitter who at least holds his own defensively. That's another way of saying he may have a future as a Daniel Murphy clone.
Which brings us to the nutshell: Refsnyder is much more of an unknown than Castro is,but he's younger, more controllable and likely cheaper, and he does have the goods to be a consistent regular. So Then...
Cutting upright to the chase,the Yankees should stick with Refsnyder.
They aren't unsuitable in having Castro on their radar. They do need an upgrade at moment base, and he has the upside to be a major upgrade. Possibly a bigger upgrade than Refsnyder can ever hope to be.
But the risk just isn't worth it. The Yankees are going to have to give up something to get Castro, or then could be on the hook for roughly $40 million in salary. That's not a enormous cost,but it's not a small cost either. Especially when compared to Refsnyder, who costs nothing to acquire and who has many cheap years ahead of him.
And though Refsnyder may not have Castro's upside, or he's a secure bet to at least be a solid regular. His hit tool may be all he has,but a hit tool is a valuable thing. Especially at a time when pitchers have the upper hand like never before.
So, whether it seems like the Yankees are missing a sense of urgency about their moment base conundrum, or don't worry. That may be the whole idea. Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.whether you want to talk baseball,hit me up on Twitter. Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com