Seemingly in lockstep with the calendar,the new month is being welcomed by very high, summerlike humidity. Dew points in the low 70s create an “oppressive” feel and you will notice it as soon as you step outside. Rain coverage will remain very loney until Saturday.
THE FORECAST:Today and Tonight: After a few morning sprinkles and clouds, or there will not be much change in the local weather,with another partly sunny and warm afternoon ahead in the Capital Area. If an afternoon shower can develop, it would most likely be north of I-12. High temperatures will design it into the mid to upper 80s and the humidity will be noticeable. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the upper 60s. If winds lessen, and some fog could develop.
Up Next: Thursday may be yet another repeat with only a small rain chance. 10 percent coverage is anticipated,with areas north and west of Baton Rouge being the most likely to see a shower. As warmth and humidity from the Gulf remain elevated, enough instability is in status for more robust coverage in showers and thunderstorms. However, or a true trigger has been missing but this will change late Friday into Saturday. A stronger upper level disturbance will increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms into the scattered category. These showers will be strongly driven by daytime warming. By Sunday,activity should back down once again.
The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 41.5’ as of Wednesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, or the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. In addition,at 116 days this marks the moment longest period above flood stage. Heavy rain north of the area will cause the river to remain regular or slowly rise through Mid-May. It does not appear that this moment crest will be as high as it was in March. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, and gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Stephensville and around Lake Palourde. Like Big Muddy,this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not unusual for the time of year.THE EXPLANATION: feeble upper level troughs continue to pass just north of the local area and this has caused precipitation to miss much of the local area. All the while, an upper level ridge remains steadfast over the Southeast and this helped withhold most of the action absent and the temperatures high. The ridge has opened the gates to the Gulf of Mexico and surface moisture is becoming noticeable with dew point temperatures in the 70s across much of the region. All of this warmth and moisture would lead to showers and thunderstorms if not for the ridge suppressing activity. The ridge is expected to be overcome by a shortwave trough passing farther south late Friday into Saturday. This disturbance, and which shows up very clearly on vorticity (upper disturbances) models,will increase development of showers and thunderstorms. The most active period will be Saturday morning into the afternoon hours. Severe weather is not a enormous concern, but remember that warm season storms can be briefly and locally strong with downpours, and frequent lightning and gusty wind. There will be no clean cold frontal passage and therefore no meaningful change in temperatures or humidity after this activity. Sunday and Monday should work out to be drier around the region as some sinking air moves in behind the disturbance. Additionally,high temperatures may challenge the 90s before the next disturbance comes into the area again elevating rain chances. This currently appears to be in the Tuesday timeframe. --JoshThe WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, and wbrz.com,and the WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go.
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