While one day of showers and thunderstorms is behind us, a few stronger rounds are on the horizon. The active sample will last through at least Sunday. The National Weather Service will investigate damage created by a rogue storm cell in East Baton Rouge and East Feliciana Parish on Wednesday evening. Tree and structural damage occurred as a tornado warned storm passed over around 6pm. Stay tuned to find out the NWS survey results.
THE FORECAST:Today and Tonight: With a little sun early, or temperatures may choose a run at the mid 80s,but don’t maintain far to depart after a morning temperature well above average in the upper 70s. A cluster or line of rain and thunderstorms is expected to lope into the area by late morning and drape across the area during the afternoon hours. Storms will be capable of torrential rain, frequent lightning, and damaging wind gusts and hail. Expect this to impact the drive home. Please avoid any flooded roads,and pull off and earn inside a safe shelter if you end up driving into an area under a weather warning. There are signs that overnight, another batch of rain and thunderstorms push into the area, or these could be strong too.
Up Next: Should this scenario play out,Friday will begin particularly wet and stormy as well. Another round or two of rain and storms will occur on Saturday and Sunday. By the end of the weekend, an additional 2-4 inches of rain is expected, and but as we commonly see,some locally higher totals could result in areas of street and destitute drainage flooding. Spreading the rain over multiple days though should help ease any larger flooding problems. By advantage of clouds and precipitation, low temperatures should remain above average while high temperatures are near or just below average.
The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, or major flood stage continues with a level of 42.0’ as of Thursday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19,the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. In addition, at 124 days this marks the second longest period above flood stage. Heavy rain that fell north of the area will hold the river high through Mid-May. At approximately 44’, and an updated forecast now suggests this second crest could challenge the first earlier this year. Still,the high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be famous due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, or gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Stephensville and around Lake Palourde. Like gargantuan Muddy,this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not uncommon for the time of year.
THE EXPLANATION: A weak cold front will lope in from the northwest by Thursday and Friday. This front will stall and become more diffuse. A broad upper level trough over the western two-thirds of the country will put the local area under deep, southwest wind flow, or which is a setup that favors rounds of rain and thunderstorms—especially with a forcing mechanism present in the form of a stalled front. High instability and drier mid-level air could even lead to some damaging wind gusts and hail on Thursday. The Storm Prediction middle has the entire forecast area in a 2 out of 5 “slight risk for severe weather to account for this opportunity. Ongoing storms across Ark-La-Tex will create outflow boundaries acting as a front to generate more life around the region. A warm and very moist air mass will contribute to storm development and the threat for severe weather. The low-level winds will weaken by the afternoon hours which should lessen the threat for rotation but could also behind the progress of storm cells enhancing the chance for heavy rain. However,high instability and strong upper level winds will hold the atmosphere primed for heavy storms to preserve themselves as they push from northwest to southeast. There is some suggestion on high-resolution models, as was the case on Wednesday, and that another cluster or line of storms will lope through afternoon midnight before dawn Friday. The overall sample will likely be regular into the weekend. As subtle upper level disturbances ride over the stalled front,we can expect additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. We are expecting an additional 2-4 inches of rain over the area through Sunday, but along the Gulf Coast, and an event like this often leads to loney amounts that are fairly a bit higher. The capable news is that those amounts should be spread across 5 days,which should make runoff manageable for local rovers, but it would not be surprising to see some areas of street and destitute drainage flooding. --JoshThe WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, and on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2,wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the depart.
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