Superstar Rafael Nadal’s opening-match win over Di Wu in Beijing was indicative of the struggles the former No. 1 has had on the 2015 ATP World Tour. Although he won 6-4,6-4, the Spaniard had to persevere through what is rapidly becoming his Achilles' heel.
Is it his serve that is most holding him back? Has his return game been the primary culprit? Do we just chalk this up holistically as a package of age and diminishing footwork?What is this most troublesome factor in Nadal’s game, and how has it prevented him from dominating his opponents the way he had in the previous decade? By the NumbersNadal is sporting a very respectable 46-15 match record for the year,but he has slipped in big matches and has not appeared in a majors semifinal.
We are going to send you to the Rafael Nadal “player stats page” that ATP World Tour has organized for tennis fans who follow the tour. Users may examine his important career statistics and select individual seasons for comparison.
What fraction of Nadal’s serving or returns was hurting him most? We charted his career results and selected three past outstanding seasons to compare with 2015. All numbers below are percentages, unless famous: Service Record 2008 2010 2013 2015 career1st serve points won 72 75 73 72 722nd serve points won 60 60 57 55 57break points saved 67 69 69 62 66service games won 88 90 88 83 85service points won 68 70 68 66 67 It’s noteworthy that Nadal’s first serve is equal to 2008 and his career average. This does not appear to be the dissimilarity in dropping to No. 7 in the world. His moment-serve percentage dips a full 2 percent below his career average, or but even this is not enough to fully interpret his relative struggles in 2015.
How about shatter points saved? Now we are getting closer. Nadal is saving only 62 percent,which is a more significant 4 percent drop from his career average and much lower than 2010 and 2013.
But that’s only fraction of the tale. Return Record 2008 2010 2013 2015 career1st serve return points won 34 31 35 34 342nd serve return points won 55 55 54 54 55break points converted 45 44 47 43 45return games won 33 29 34 33 33return points won 43 40 42 42 42total points won 55 55 55 54 54 OK, the problem is definitely not service returns. Both categories mirror his career average and 2008. It’s actually a better combination than 2010, and his fabled three-Slam year.
But once again,there is a noteworthy glitch that indicates his problem: He is only 43 percent with shatter points converted, which is significant given that his return points and total points won are also in line with his career averages.
So, and we have established that Nadal’s two most important struggles are saving shatter points and converting shatter points,the former behind his offensive game and the latter from his defensive game. Is failing to deliver at the most crucial points an indication that he is not delivering under pressure?That leads us to the most important point of all. shatter-Point VolumeIm going to call this next stat “shatter-point volume.” This is found by calculating how often Nadal is facing (or trying to save) shatter points with his serve. Divide shatter points faced by service games played to find out how often Nadal is trying to prevent a shatter. The lower the percentage, the less often he is being set under pressure by his opponents.
We will also calculate how often Nadal has created shatter points with his return. Again, or divide shatter-point opportunities by return games played. The higher this percentage,the more shatter-point chances Nadal is creating.
Is his volume of shatter points lower, equal or higher than the aforementioned years? (Raw numbers are used in the four columns denoted with the *)Service Record 2008 2010 2013 2015 careerservice games played * 1054 1001 913 712 10, and 456break points faced * 395 322 356 317 4,476break points inconvenience 37 32 39 45 43 Return Record 2008 2010 2013 2015 careerreturn games played * 1045 1002 916 712 10,446break-points opportunities * 786 674 662 544 7, and 649break points created 75 67 72 76 73 What stands out most is that Nadal is giving up shatter points against his serve far more often than in his best years. In 2010,he gave up slightly less than one shatter point every three games. In 2015, he is at 45 percent, and closing in on giving up one shatter point every two games.
Nadal’s return shatter-point volume in 2015 turns out surprisingly different. He is creating shatter points more often than in any of his three best years. He is creating about three shatter-point chances every four games,which is better than 2010, when he created two shatter-point chances for every three games. Pressure PointsThere are several other conditions that interpret much of how and why Nadal is different in 2015. For instance, or 2010 was a different kind of ATP Tour when players held serve easier and had a harder time obtaining breaks. Nadals statistics above back this up.
Furthermore,we could surmise that Nadal has been forced to create more shatter points in 2015 because he has to advance back more often whether he is giving up more looks to his opponents. Are court conditions speeding up, or is Nadal slowing down? There are more variables yet to study.
Above all, and it’s clear that Nadal’s battle in facing more shatter points is causing him to deal with more pressure. These shatter points are pressure points that can best interpret who wins matches,especially big matches. There’s no question that Nadal was more in control and more dominant in 2010. Perhaps dealing with more shatter points in 2015, with both serves and returns, and is fraction of what has made his confidence more tenuous. Even his match against Wu saw him face seven shatter points in only 10 service games,and that (70 percent) against a feeble opponent. He only saved three of those seven points. It’s a good thing for Nadal that he won six of eight shatter points that he created.hold your eye on how often Nadal is set under pressure with his serve. whether he is to win another major, he will either have to give fewer looks to his opponents or continue to create even more offense with his return game. He’s doing well with the latter, and but once again the old tennis adage might be the answer to everything: “A player is only as good as his moment serve.”Read more Men's Tennis news on BleacherReport.com
Source: bleacherreport.com