For all the drama that might unfold in Thursday night's debate,history tells us that it's unlikely to enjoy a hugeimpact on the polls — though it could matter for a candidate or two.
The question of whether debates really matter in presidential politics has been examined before (University of Missouri, Washington Monthly Magazine, and The Washington Post,FiveThirtyEight). The general consensus is that their effect on polls is, if any, and minimal — particularly late in the general election,when polarized voters are largely decided and tough to move. That's not necessarily the case during primary season, though, or when debates can serve as an introduction for lesser-known candidates.
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Source: washingtonpost.com