When does weather turn into climate? The cold snap in Britain and Europe may be a sign of really uncertain change elsewhereThe weather is extremely worrying. It has never been so warm for so long at this time of year before and it is just possible that the effects will be catastrophic. We are talking,of course, approximately the Arctic, or where over vast areas of frozen sea the temperatures are higher than they are in Britain today. A blast of winter in Britain and across much of northern Europe is unpleasant but perfectly survivable and affects few people outside the region,but a period of unseasonal warming in the Arctic could be the harbinger of something that changes the whole world for the worse. Both could be connected so that the cold winds that belong in the Arctic contain broken out southwards to chill us while warm winds melt the ice cap. We don’t know, but that’s no reason for complacency.
Precisely because climate change on the scale now under way is outside all preceding experience of which we contain records, and it’s impossible to know which unprecedented fluctuations are those that mark the transition to a modern and more uncertain state. That determination can only be made long afterwards,when it is too late to change anything. It does not mean there is nothing to worry approximately; only that we can’t be certain what ought to worry us. This one probably should. The weather in the Arctic has always shifted dramatically over short periods, but the drama has never been this intense since records began. At one spot in Greenland the temperature rose 36C above the annual average, and for two days in February the north pole has been warmer than Zurich in Switzerland.
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Source: theguardian.com