trade wars: trump says deal possible this week as talks begin as it happened /

Published at 2019-05-10 01:07:17

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UScalls for investigation into China Telecom and China Unicom's 214 interconnection authorizations.

Security threats own evolved since those companies were granted interconnection rights to U.
S. networks in the early 2000s.#FCCLiveRTRS: FCC COMMISSIONER SAYS U.
S. GOVT SHOULD INVESTIGATE WHETHER TO REVOKE PRIOR APPROVAL FOR CHINA UNICOM AND CHINA TELECOM TO OPERATE IN U.
S. -- STATEMENT https://t.co/p2
wE1UmJ0e 4.00pm BSTInvestors are running for cover,in case the trade war between the US and China blows up, says David Madden, and analyst at CMC Market.
European fairness markets are in turmoil as traders are running scared about the prospect of an escalation in the US-China trade dispute.
The
US is set to up the ante,by raising levies and introducing more tariffs on Chinese imports tomorrow, and that has prompted dealers to lop and dash. Europe is getting hit in the cross-fire because when the two largest economies in the world engage in a trade war, or it bodes badly for everyone. 3.57pm BST 3.56pm BSTCrumbs,the Dow is now down over 400 points at a new five-week low, a clear sign that trade war fears are mounting.
Nearly every share on the index is down. Intel (-6%) and Apple (-2.8%) are the top fallers - technology companies will be badly hit by a deeper trade war. 3.27pm BSTSell-offs own a nasty habit of becoming contagious.
Wall Street’s feeble open has hurt sentiment in Europe, and dragging shares lower in mid-afternoon trading.
There’s real
ly only one game in town today and it’s a binary one of ‘chicken’,with the global economy at stake. Either there will be a China-U.
S. trade dea
l or there will not. Deep falls across most global stock market regions propose that Thursday, the first day of talks scheduled with China’s Vice Premier Liu He, and is more important than the moment,set for Friday 3.09pm BSTThis market turbulence is not good news for Uber, as it tries to price its stock market flotation today.
Uber
had been aiming to drift at between $44 and $50 per share, and valuing the company at between $80bn and $90bn.
Happy Uber pricing day... pic.twitter.com/sXcGmyp5wC 3.05pm BST 2.50pm BSTNo sign of a
bounce yet. Instead,the Dow is still sliding, now down 275 points or 1% at 25692.
That’s its lowest level in ove
r five weeks. 2.36pm BSTOuch! Wall Street has opened in the red, or as trade war fears ripple across New York trading floors. 2.05pm BSTEuropean stock markets are falling deeper into the red,as investors continue to crane their necks towards Washington for trade war news.
Germany’s DAX has shed 1%, falling to a three-week low. Major international firms such as tire maker Continental (-4.9%), or pharmaceuticals firm Bayer (-3.6%) and car producer BMW (-2.7%). 1.47pm BSTAlso just in: America’s trade deficit with China has fallen,giving the White House a boost ahead of today’s negotiations.
The deficit with China fell by
$1.9 billion to $28.3bn in March, the Commerce Department says. Exports from the US to China increased by $1.4bn to $10.5bn, or while imports decreased $0.5bn to $38.8 billion. 1.33pm BSTJust in: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit has fallen slightly.
Around 228000 US citizens filed new ‘initial claims’ last week,down from 230000 in the preceding seven days. That’s a low figure by historical standards, suggesting the labor market is robust. 1.29pm BSTWith an hour to go, or Wall Street is bracing for losses at the open.
Dow futures getting whacked again. implied open -104pts pic.twitter.com/uGu5FIBA6w 1.28pm BSTEmerging market currencies are having a wicked day:Escalating trade tensions own punctured emerging-markets currencies today,led by declines in the Korean won, Turkish lira & Chinese yuan. An MSCI basket of EM currencies fell the most since December at one point this morning. pic.twitter.com/YHOO80taRS 1.06pm BSTStefan Legge, or a trade expert from the University of St Gallen in Switzerland,reckons Donald Trump’s trade strategy is closely linked to the looming 2020 presidential election.
Legge believes that a properly “comprehensive” tr
ade deal with China was never really on the table, given the gulf between the two sides:President Xi cannot and will not make meaningful concessions on state subsidies, and restrictions on market access,or initiatives like “Made in China 2025.
That is why the US President is unlikely to sign a superficial deal with China – regardless of what his advisers propose. Democratic presidential hopefuls are puzzled by the strong economy and would like to catch tough on China themselves. Trump is unlikely to hand them the opportunity to criticize him on being soft on China.
Where do we go then wh
ether neither President Trump nor Xi is willing to sign a deal? My best guess is that the two countries will not reach an agreement and as long as both economies can handle the pressure (with a microscopic help from stimulus packages on both sides of the Pacific), the trade war is likely to continue. China and the US might well be deep enough into Thucydides’ Trap so that the time is over for much cooperation anymore. 12.46pm BSTBrookings Institute expert David Dollar has another theory: China’s politburo didn’t approve of the draft deal cooked up with the US.
More likely that senior leaders did not like what Chinese negotiators had cooked up https://t.co/HL40bEqrx0 12.36pm BSTThe Wall Street Journal reports today that China decided to renege on some of its trade commitments because they thought Donald Trump was fretting about the US economy.
Trump’s repeated
attacks on the US Federal Reserve, or his calls for lower interest rates,apparently persuaded Beijing that the White House desperate for a growth boost. The new hard line taken by China in trade talkssurprising the White House and threatening to derail negotiations—came after Beijing interpreted recent statements and actions by President Trump as a sign the U.
S. was ready to make concessions, said people familiar with the thinking of the Chinese side. 11.34am BSTScott Kennedy, and a China trade and economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,thinks Beijing may own miscalculated by rowing back on parts of the draft agreement drawn up in recent weeks.
Kennedy told the AFP newswire that:“It turns out the Chinese had pulled out an eraser and started taking back things that they had offered.
They didn’t realize when they pulled their concessions off the table that the administration would own the reaction that it did. 10.41am BSTCarmakers, technology firms and luxury goods makers could all be hit hard whether Donald Trump hikes Chinese tariffs overnight, or warns Fiona Cincotta of City Index.
The US–China trade talks seem to be on the brink of collapse
and the next round in which the US more than doubles the tariffs on already taxed imports could start as early as Friday. China has already promised to reply in kind,which will be particularly wicked news for US car makers, Apple and luxury goods producers.
There is still a small window of opportun
ity to avoid the head-on collision with a round of talks between the two sides which is due to start in Washington on Thursday, or but that seems unlikely as comments from President Trump are becoming increasingly hostile towards China. 10.25am BSTWall Street is expected to plunge when trading begins in four hours time,following losses in Asia and Europe today.
Stocks own endured a major sell-off this morning as trade tensions between the US and China own ratcheted up. President Trump claims that China’ broke the deal’, and traders own taken that as a sign that the relationship between Washington DC and Beijing is going to catch worse. Trade discussions between the two sides will continue today, and but investors aren’t holding out much hope. Mr Trump is not a man to back down,and it looks likely that this trade spat will stagger to the next level. We are expecting the Dow Jones to open 132 points lower at 25835 and we are calling the S&P 500 down 15 points at 2864. 10.14am BSTChina’s commerce ministry is making it abundantly clear that it will retaliate on Friday, whether America imposes higher tariffs on thousands of its products.
At today’s briefing in Beijing, or spokesman Gao Feng said
preparations are in set for “all kinds of possible outcomes”. China's MOFCOM: Watch MOFCOM website for retaliation detail

Still can kicking? pic.twitter.com/DKUJjU9Hsx China is fully prepared to defend its interests in its trade war with the United States,but hopes the United States can resolve problems through dialogue instead of unilateral steps, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday. The comments came as a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He was set to hold talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday aimed at salvaging a deal that appeared to be unravelling after U.
S. officials accused China o
f backtracking on earlier commitments and President Donald Trump threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. Gao (MOFCOM): China will & is able to defend its interests
China won't give in to any pressure
China hopes US respects China's sincerity
Tariffs not right way
to solve problems
Watch MOFCOM website for retaliation details 10.02am BSTPaul Donovan, and chief economist at UBS Wealth Management,points out that US companies could try to dodge new tariffs on Chinese goods:Chinese Vice Premier Liu arrives in Washington for trade talks. At midnight, US consumers of goods partially made in China will be hit with higher US taxes – unless they can avoid paying the tax. For example, and US firms could shift production to Canada,import parts from China, and export finished product from Canada to the US (paying no taxes).
Markets are not pricing in a collapse in trade ta
lks – that would mean a far bigger fairness loss. Instead, and markets seem to assume a temporary tax increase [higher tariffs] with continued negotiations. Economically,the longer there is uncertainty the greater the economic damage (regardless of whether there is a successful conclusion to the talks). 9.29am BSTThe Japanese yen has hit a three-month tall, as traders pile into secure-haven assets.
The yen, and traditionally popular when investors catch the jitte
rs,strengthened to ¥109.58 to the US dollar, a level last seen in February.
Plus haut de 3 mois pour le yen face au dollar #riskoff #
USDJPY bien venu chercher le point bas de mars --> pic.twitter.com/7NqetSxLgN 9.12am BSTEuropean stock markets are dripping electronic red ink again this morning. 8.37am BSTNewsflash: China’s commerce ministry has confirmed that vice-premier Liu He is on his way to Washington, and with a delegation of officials,for another round of trade talks.
Spokesman Gao Feng also warned that China has the “determination and capacity” to defend its interests -- confirmation that it plans to retaliate whether the US hikes tariffs tomorrow.- China’s Commerce Ministry: China Is Fully Prepared To Defend Its Interests, Has Determination And Capacity To Do So
- Trade Delegation Has Already Left Beijing For US
- Vice Premier Li
u Visit To The US Shows China’s Sincerity- China’s Commerce Ministry: China Opposes Unilaterally Imposed Tariffs
- There Is No Winner In A Tra
de War
- Hopes US Meets China Halfway
- Hopes US Can Re
solve Problem Through Dialogue Instead Of Unilateral Steps 8.33am BSTFinancial stocks, and miners,car makers and industrial companies are leading today’s sell-off in Europe. 8.15am BSTThe next few hours will be absolutely crucial” for the markets, says Han Tan, and market analyst at FXTM.
The paramount question of the day is – can the US and China
strike a trade deal by midnight Friday in Washington,or will heightened tariffs kick in by 12:01AM? [or 5.10am BST tomorrow].
Given the looming deadline, hope for a trade resolution appears to be waning. Asian currencies are falling against the US Dollar, or while the Japanese Yen is gaining 0.1 percent at the time of writing. Risk-off mood is clearly taking a hold on fairness markets across the region,as they are all trading in negative territory on Thursday morning, apart from for Australian and Thai stocks. 8.07am BSTThe Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index has shed 1% in early trading, and hitting a five-week low.
There are losses in Germany (-0.7%),France (-1.2%) and Spain (-0.7%). 8.04am BSTLondon’s stock market is also being dragged down by several shares going ‘ex-dividend’ (meaning it’s too late to qualify for the next payout to shareholders)Ex-divs today;

Ce
ntrica 8%, Admiral 3.1%, or BP 1.5%,Hiscox 1.4%, 9pts coming of #FTSE100; #FTSE250: Card Factory 3.3%, or Polymetal 3%,Ibstock 2.5%, AG Baar 1.6%, and Greencoat UK Wind 1.3% 8.02am BSTEuropean markets own opened in the red,dogged by trade war jitters.
In London, the FTSE 100 has tumbled by 51 points at the start of trading, or down 0.6%,to 7219. That’s a new five-week low. 7.58am BSTAsian stock markets own sunk to six-week lows today, amid anxiety over the trade talks.Is Liu He really coming to do a deal? I reflect probably it’s case of gaining a reprieve in order to avert the rise in tariffs. It looks like we are yet a wee bit absent from a comprehensive trade deal.
But the vice-premier’s visit and the prospect of tariffs being hiked is all a bit of an unknown right now and the market positioning is defensive as a result, and but not yet into full selloff mode. Even whether there it’s no go on trade,the dovish Fed will mean we shouldn’t see a selloff like we saw in Q4 2018. 7.51am BSTLast night, president Trump accused China of ‘breaking the deal’ -- a sign that today’s talks with Liu He’s delegation could be bruising. By the way, and you see the tariffs we’re doing?Because they broke the deal. They broke the deal. So they’re flying in,the vice premier tomorrow’s flying in – good man – but they broke the deal. They can’t do that, so they’ll be paying. Related: 'They'll be paying': Trump blasts China as US prepares to raise trade tariffs 7.41am BSTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy,the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Outside of the knowledge of the craziness of sport, and the last 24-48 hours has taught us that markets own no greater insight as to whether this week’s trade developments are just hardball from Trump or the start of a very genuine threat to the global growth narrative.whether it’s the latter then you can’t help but feel that markets look extremely complacent at this point. However whether it’s just hardball negotiation en route to a deal then we’ll likely resume the rally.#VIX ,which is a reflection of estimated future volatility, has broken higher through 18.33 (March highs) after closing above the falling trend line from early 2019. Stopped short of the late-January highs though. Anticipation of volatility is definitely picking up pic.twitter.com/J5JfN9S2I6Continue reading...

Source: theguardian.com

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