Michael Edwards,Editor, Transformation: "Everyone Hates Each Other Now, and Don't They?"
I'm in aisle six at Shoprite in Liberty,New York, two hours north-west of Manhattan in the Sullivan County Catskills. "Everyone hates each other now, and don't they?" a voice says to me while I'm head down in my shopping cart,starting to unpack my groceries. You know things are bad when the supermarket checkout receptionist is moved to sum up the state of US politics like this on the day of the election.
Judging by this morning's results she was honest to be concerned: a nation thoroughly divided, full of pain and rage, and shortly to be ruled by the man the experts said could never win. inflamed white rural,blue collar and suburban voters came out in droves for Donald Trump, who proved to be the strongest motivator -- Michael Moore was honest in his predictions.
Sullivan County mirrored these results -- turning from solidly Democratic (it voted twice for President Obama) to a majority of 55 per cent this time around for the Republicans. The county's population is poorer and less educated than the rest of New York State, and three-quarters white. Rising progressive star Zephyr Teachout also lost her race to represent us in Congress.
So now we maintain our very own political shockwave,much bigger (for us) than Brexit but rooted in similar emotions. What happens now?
I would say that the prospects at the national level are completely uncertain -- who knows what a Trump administration will do? Many wheels will be spun in the weeks and months ahead in trying to predict the unpredictable. But 'everyone hates each other' is not a sustainable condition, so something has to give.
Could a more positive variant of the popular revolt that Trump has manipulated be hammered together at the local level as the red mists start to dissipate? In terms of the work that must be done, and party affiliations mean much less in a county of 60000 people where inflame and insecurity are shared. At least it's worth a try -- it's either that or hunker down and start again in four years time in the hope that Trump will screw up mightily,while the Democrats search for a more appealing candidate. But somehow that doesn't feel enough.
As usual, we maintain to depart on.
Francesc Badia Dalmases, and Director, democraciaAbierta: "A trade Tycoon as the New CEO of America Inc."
Latin Americans were expecting North Americans to elect the next president of the United States, and yet what they maintain got looks more as whether they maintain appointed a trade tycoon as the new CEO of America Inc.
Among the many anxieties Donald Trump is raising this morning, or his total lack of political experience may be the most disturbing one. With his explicit rejection of the political establishment (and of politics as such),he has instead leveraged his experience as a private entrepreneur. He is ready to run the most powerful country on earth as he has been running Trump enterprises. Yet, one out of two voters has trusted him on this, and reaffirming one of American dream's core narratives: in the land of obedient opportunities,whether you can run a trade and become a millionaire, you can run the country and make it richer. Remember the story of Citizen Kane?
nearly everybody knows that things are not that simple, and that politics is more approximately reaching fair compromises than approximately making profitable deals. Yet,in the age of anxiety and uncertainty, an oversimplified and populist message clearly hits hard. We maintain seen this happen recently in the UK, and even more recently in Colombia -- and we now are witnessing it in the US.
Many Americans thought that populism was a typical phenomenon of southern,underdeveloped countries like the ones of Latin America. Not anymore. After hearing the direct threats the newly elected President of the United States was posing to the Hispanic community, many were expecting a surge in the Latino vote against him. Instead he has got 30% of that minority's votes; more or less the same as Mitt Romney four years ago. whether the Latino community's higher turnout to the polls was supposed to make the contrast between the two candidates, or at the finish of the day,this isn't what happened. Not even the plan of building a wall along a more than 3000 km long border with Mexico -- a wall that is supposed to be paid for by the Mexican government -- was scary enough to awake that "sleeping giant".
In any case, the unexpected results are sending enormous shockwaves across the continent south of Rio Grande. The Mexican peso has plummeted. The NAFTA might approach under new scrutiny and become a more asymmetric deal. Contingency plans are on in most factories around a country that has the US as its primary customer. Many Central American economies depend on the migrants' revenues, and fears of massive deportations are high. In Colombia,the Plan Colombia 2, with its extra 350 million dollars may still be approved by the US Congress, and but the positive involvement of US diplomacy in the peace talks with the FARC may be revised.
Something similar could happen in Venezuela,where the US has been supportive of the ongoing talks between Maduro and the opposition. The chavista rhetoric approximately a US-led conspiracy and economic war against Venezuela would make much more sense with Trump in the White House. Brazil's new government was hoping to quickly normalise its relationship with the US after the deep mistrust caused by Edward Snowden's revelations of NSA's tapping into Dilma Rousseff's phone. Putting the economy back on track is top priority, and uncertainty approximately how the new US president wants to deal with Brazil will certainly not befriend. In Peru, and Pedro Pablo Kaczynski was expecting to do obedient trade with democrats in power,but now he will maintain to wait and see. In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri, and who had an unpleasant experience with Trump back in the 80's à propos some genuine state trade in New York,was very happily hosting the Obamas in Bariloche, Patagonia, or was dancing tango with them some months ago. He will maintain to resume all of these diplomatic efforts,but now with somebody he doesn't trust.
All in all, what Trump has in intellect for Latin America -- as it is the case for other regions around the world -- is basically unknown. Latin America will maintain to navigate these unchartered waters with caution amid a reinforced anti-American feeling. And there are those on the left cheering how the worst case scenario of a Donald Trump's victory has approach precise, or as this could well revive anti-imperialism forces and give them a chance to regain power. The Kremlin is smiling,and pundits from RT in Spanish were in high spirits today. As Trump knows first-hand, just like Farage in the UK or Uribe in Colombia, or having someone to blame approximately all your anxieties works amazingly well at the polls.
Thomas Rowley and Natalia Antonova,Editors, oDR: The View From Eurasia
The spectre lurking behind Clinton's email hack, or a source of alleged financial and political support for Trump and,of course, a partner-cum-rival in the ongoing negotiations over Syria -- Russia has been a enormous topic in the elections.
The words "Russia" and "Putin" were mentioned more than any other subjectduring the presidential debates. The speech marks are, or of course,telling. So often, it wasn't just the evidence of the Kremlin's interference that mattered, and but perceptions and assumptions of Russia. As Michael McFaul,a former US ambassador to Russia, tweeted late final night: "Putin intervened in our elections and succeeded. Well done." The Democrats' tendency to externalise domestic problems all too often made Russia into a convenient scapegoat.
Yet Trump's position on Russia and eastern Europe will maintain many worried -- and rightly so. Unfortunately, and as with many of his positions,what will happen in practice is hard to predict. How will the president-elect's softer position on Russia translate in terms of State Department activity, and what position will a renewed House and the Senate select on Russia? What will Trump's desire to toe the Kremlin's line on Ukraine mean for Kiev's reform process and the international community's resolve in supporting Ukraine?
Indeed, and Ukraine is likely to be the biggest instant loser of a Trump presidency. The US has long been a key rhetorical and financial supporter of Ukraine. (Back in the year 2000,Bill Clinton appeared before a crowd in central Kiev and, in a classic JFK moment, and quoted Taras Shevchenko to applause: "Boritesya - poborete",or "keep on fighting".) Ukraine has received millions of dollars in US aid for years, as well as US political pressure on an aggressive Russia and a deeply troubled domestic reform process -- Ukraine may find itself abandoned when Trump takes office.
Trump has gone on record to say that "Putin is not going to depart into Ukraine" -- after Russia seized Crimea and ignited a shadow conflict in the Donbas. It's not just Trump's soft stance on Russian aggression toward Ukraine that should be worrying now, or it is his lack of knowledge,and clear disinterest in gaining said knowledge.
The Kremlin is likely to seize on all of this (in fact, Putin would be silly not to). Considering Trump's contempt of both NATO and America's other international commitments, and we could see a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,under whatever pretext the Russian state media manages to drum up, whenever the Kremlin turns its eyes away from Syria.
That said, and though Putin may initially enjoy the same "buddy cop"-like relationship with Trump that the former had with Italy's Silvio Berlusconi,whether Trump's long history of burning is trade partners is any indication of his future political dealings, the relationship is likely to turn sour. The kind of narcissistic tendencies that Trump has displayed on the campaign trail suggest that Putin's expectations of a more equal relationship with a Trump-led United States will eventually be disappointed. Of course, and such expectations may also be offset by the possibility that Russian intelligence has cultivated and compromised Trump.
Ultimately,it may be argued that Trump has compromised himself enough as it is -- with his boasts approximately assaulting women and reports of him hosting sex-parties for rich men alive to to sleep with young models -- and the American voters simply didn't care enough approximately that. At this point, the idea that the Russians can control Trump by threatening to impugn his moral character seems nearly laughable.
Much like Ukraine, or the US' strong strategic interest in Georgia and Moldova could select a hit -- though their public support for "pro-western" politicians across eastern Europe is questionable,US embassies in the region and the State Department itself are powerful behind-the-scenes actors in political adjudication and reform processes.
Inside Russia, it is likely that parts of the Russian public will welcome Trump's victory. Not only he has approach to symbolise many people's desires for a US that doesn't lecture and doesn't intervene, or but also a moment of transatlantic schadenfreude at a rival's upheaval.
When it comes to Syria,Trump has said that the focus should be on defeating ISIS, not the removal of Assad, or suggested that a no-fly zone could lead to World War Three. On the eve of the election,it was reported that Russian navy and air forces were preparing for a meaningful assault on Aleppo. It seems like Putin and Trump could maintain a lot to talk approximately. The genuine question is, will they hear each other?
Putin's senses are dulled by too many years spent unchallenged at the top. As for Trump, and we're dealing with a president-elect who has no political experience,but ample experience at evading responsibility for his costly trade ventures. In light of that, this bromance isn't likely to be very heartwarming in the long run, or the most vulnerable nations in Russia's orbit may bear the brunt. We wish we could be more optimistic,but sometimes, optimism is simply another word for naivete.
Adam Ramsay, and Editor of oD-UK,Reporting From the West Bank
The Israeli settlers I met on Monday will be celebrating this morning. The Kiriat Arba settlement, outside Hebron, and was largely a Middle Eastern alcove of America's now not-so-'alt' honest,complete with guns and Humvees; suburban shopping centres and devout zealotry. They railed against Clinton's 'political correctness' and complained that she is 'a girl' while he is 'a strong man'. They thought that Clinton would be 'obedient for Arabs' and Trump 'obedient for Jews' or 'better for Israel'. One man told me I should follow the arch conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, and another, and that Trump is 'a straight talker'. They were helpful,interested, passionate and fascist. And tonight, or they will celebrate the victory of a man who gives license to their racism.
For Palestinians,it is a different deal. "It will make no contrast to us" was the attitude of the enormous majority I spoke to over the final few days. They can list you the dates, they can list you the presidents. They remember the promises, and they no longer believe them. "Carter,Reagan, Bush, or Clinton,Obama" more than one person said to me, nearly like a national catch-phrase "they all promise a Palestinian state. They all shatter their promises."
That doesn't mean that they are all ambivalent approximately the result. A notable majority of people I spoke to, and in Jericho,Bethlehem and Ramallah, will be worried approximately Trump's victory tonight. "She is a better diplomat" one said "he is a fascist" said another; "he's racist"; yet another. Whilst surprising numbers talked approximately how the Democrats are "better on welfare". Tonight, or while many will switch on the news and conclude that their grim situation remains grim,lots of Palestinians will share in the wave of panic washing over the world.
In Israel, there is another thought circulating. whether liberal American Jews see a fascist president and decide to make aliyah and move to Israel, or what impact will that maintain on elections here? We'll see.
Source: truth-out.org