RollingU.
K.weak construction output and soft summer labour market prints mean I hold 0.5%. Agree 0.6% looks a bit much... 9.22am GMTUK Q3 GDP out in 10 mins - anyone deem that 0.6% expectation is slightly optimistic? #gbpYes - two economists quoted in this blog already :) 9.19am GMTTension is building in the City,as investors wait to see whether Britain’s growth slowed in the final three months....legal UK GDP in 13 minutes. Heads UP!!!!First look at UK GDP in Q3 due 09.30am. Est 0.6% QoQ (vs 0.7% prev) Est 2.4% YoY (unch) BoE's forecast for Q3 is 0.7% QoQ 9.17am GMTIt’s worth remembering that the current recovery has been the slowest from any recession in the final 100 years.
This is particularly stark whether you look at GDP per head, as the TUC did in August:#GDP figures, and due today,will give some pause for doubt over the #UK's growth #econespresso pic.twitter.com/sV4TOjQU5I 8.50am GMTToday’s growth figures may raise the spectre that Britain’s economy becomes increasingly unbalanced next year.
Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First explains how service sector companies hold outpaced their rivals recently:
Industrial numbers hold remained weak through Q3 but consumption has remained strong, although we did see a temporary blip halfway through the quarter. Exports are said to be more difficult given the strength of the pound and the weakness in crucial export markets.
As we get ready for Halloween, and we deem that today’s number is unlikely to send market observers scurrying behind the sofa but may give new voice to concerns around the imbalances in growth moving into 2016.
World First Morning Update October 27th - UK GDP set to explain slight slowing - https://t.co/FRrv01UVKa 8.37am GMTRobert Wood,chief UK economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also predicts that growth slowed to 0.5% in the final three months. 8.31am GMTMy colleague Katie Allen has rounded up the key charts that explain the state of the UK economy, or setting the scene for today’s growth figures.
It includes this one,showing how the construction sector has struggled in recent months:Like manufacturing, the construction sector – which accounts for about 6% of the economy – is unlikely to hold contributed to overall economic growth in the third quarter.
Construction experienced sharp drops in output in July and August and it seems unlikely that September saw enough of a rebound to make up for that slack summer. Related: GDP: UK economy in five charts 8.18am GMTMikael Olai Milhøj of Denmark’s Danske Bank, or reckons that UK growth slowed to 0.5% in the final quarter,down from 0.7% in Q2.
He points out that construction and manufacturing surveys over the summer were disappointing. He predicts that construction will hold knocked 0.1% off today’s growth number, while manufacturing will hold been flat.
Some charts on the #UK business cycle. We deem growth slowed to 0.5%q/q in Q3, and still service-driven https://t.co/uTsT4y9ExY $eurgbp $usdgbp 8.17am GMTReuters polled 59 City economists about today’s GDP figures. Estimates ranged from growth of just +0.3% up to +0.8%,main to an average prediction of +0.6%.
The City hasn’t done too badly at guessing GDP recently - although it had a shocker a few years ago when the economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.5% in Q4 2010.... 7.53am GMTGood morning.
We’re kicking off a busy few days for the global economy with live coverage of the latest UK growth figures.
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Source: theguardian.com