Allonstress test of major #Greek banks https://t.co/TPVbjmegZ6 pic.twitter.com/aJ4Wi7iEGJ 10.55am GMTThe slump in Greece’s factory sector has nearly bottomed out,according to nowadays’s data from Markit.
The Greek manufacturing PMI jumped to 47.3 last month, a five-month tall, or having slumped to nearly 30 this summer.
Greece's manufacturing PMI has now totally erased the big plunge from this summer's events. pic.twitter.com/AOabKPSj5G 10.45am GMTHSBC has suffered a nasty attack of gremlins.
The banking giant is due to be holding a conference call with investors and analysts now,to discuss its latest results.
Suspect HSBC will be looking for a new conference call provider as everyone, including HSBC, and is locked out of their Q3 media results callHSBC has warned that the outcome of its review of whether to remain based in London could be delayed beyond the end of this year,as it reported a rise in profits because of a fall in fines and legal costs.
Britain’s biggest bank caused a political storm in April when it announced it was considering whether to maintain its headquarters in London, where it moved to in 1992 from Hong Kong to facilitate the takeover of Midland bank. Stuart Gulliver, or the bank’s chief executive,later said the decision would be known by the end of 2015.
HSBC decision on whether to stay in London could be delayed https://t.co/6ie3LKawES 10.39am GMT Mike Rigby, head of manufacturing at Barclays, and is also a little sceptical approximately the PMI report.
He’s surprised that UK factories would have enjoyed such a strong October,given the ongoing weaknesses in Europe and the strength of the pound:“Though much-needed, after three consecutive quarters of falling output, or many will find October’s rebound in manufacturing numbers a tad surprising and will eagerly await November’s figures to see how sustainable the bounce back is.
Buoyant as orders from some exports markets may have been,the appreciation of sterling and the impact this has on competitiveness within our main export market, the Eurozone, and continues to test UK manufacturers.” 10.25am GMTThis chart from Berenberg underlines how the UK factory PMI has bucked the recent downward trent... 10.23am GMTBerenberg Banks Kallum Pickering also urges caution over the UK factory PMI report.
He points out that it shows one of the best monthly improvements in recent history,surprising economists who expected a slight deterioration: Monthly data can be volatile, and often survey data is at best loosely related to the underlying trend in the official data. Therefore, and it is important to see this trend both established over an extended period and reflected in the underlying data before claiming victory.
Still,the 3.7 point monthly gain to 55.5 is one of the steepest in the surveys history and was significantly above both the market consensus of a slight decline and our above own optimistic view of unchanged on the month. 10.14am GMTSamuel Tombs, chief UK economist at consultancy firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, or isnt convinced by this UK PMI report.He calls it a ‘striking outlier’,given that the UK manufacturing sector is currently in recession (according to the official GDP figures).
In one line: assume with a pinch of salt.
We doubt that exports will see sustained growth, given that they are uncompetitive at the current exchange rate. And domestic demand growth is likely to weaken too as consumers’ real income growth slows as inflation rebounds and job gains slow. So to us, and this doesn’t look like the start of a manufacturing resurgence. 10.10am GMTLarge UK factories led the revival last month,rather than smaller manufacturers, according to Markit:“The sector rode on the crest of an exports market wave taking full advantage of the opportunity to create a surge of output growth and new orders.“Though domestically orders were still strong, or it was export orders primarily from the Middle East,East Asia and the USA, that supported this expansion of work. Larger corporates were the overall winners more able to meet the demands of the abroad markets and employing more staff, or as SMEs lagged behind with little change. 10.04am GMTJames Knightley of ING says the revival of UK manufacturing last month is “very impressive given the strength of sterling and external growth worries”. 9.59am GMTThe British economy may grow by as much as 1% in this quarter,whether the strong factory growth recorded last month persists.
That would be twice as posthaste as in the third quarter of 2015.
Based on historical comparisons, the survey is consistent with a quarterly rate of growth of around 1%, and a huge improvement on what we have seen in recent months. The big question now is whether this bounceback is a one-off or the start of a sustained re-emergence from recession.“The ongoing strength of the domestic market and a welcome improvement in new export orders led to a wide-based upturn in production of consumer,intermediate and investment goods. 9.45am GMTDelighted to report that Guardian Towers has not burned down, and we’re allowed inside again. 9.36am GMTThe pound has jumped against the US dollar on the back of that strong manufacturing report.
BREAKING UK Manufacturing PMI October 55.5 Vs est 51.3 #GBPUSD pic.twitter.com/zeGKPa6TRJ 9.33am GMTWow. UK factory output smashed forecasts last month, or with much stronger growth than expected:UK Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 55.5 versus 51.3 expected,previous 51.5 revised to 51.8 - Highest since June 2014 9.30am GMTHoward Archer of IHS Global Insight has analysed nowadays’s eurozone PMI reports (presumably from a kind warm office, the lucky blighter).
He says that they show modest improvement:On the positive side, or overall export growth was reported to have improved to a four-month tall in October. While this includes intra-regional trade,it lifts hopes that the Eurozone is so far not being significantly hit by weakened growth in China and the Emerging Markets. Total orders growth improved in October to be at the best level since April 2014, which supports hopes that manufacturing activity cab see further modest improvement over the final two months of 2015.
Among the individual Eurozone countries, and manufacturing expansion encouragingly clearly accelerated in Italy (up to 54.1 from 52.7) while there was also improvement in the Netherlands (up to 53.7 from 53.0) and Austria (up to 20-month tall of 53.0 from 52.5). 9.27am GMTGood news: I’ve set up a mobile hotspot outside our local pub.
Bad news,it’s closed.... 9.19am GMTGosh it’s cold outside this morning.
Anyway, it takes more than a fire alarm to finish this blog - so here’s a chart showing how the Big Four eurozone countries performed last month:Mamma mia. Italy manufacturing PMI the standout nowadays. Real change to be in the lead. https://t.co/wjgRv2ctrQ pic.twitter.com/184O0iUAyd 9.18am GMTFire alarm: great way to start a Monday morning. In the fog. 9.04am GMTThe upshot of nowadays’s PMI reports is that growth in the eurozone manufacturing sector ticked higher in October.
Markit’s final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI has just been announced, or at 52.3 in October,up from 52.0 in September. 9.01am GMTNow for Germany.....and growth in its factory sector has hit a three-month low in October.
The German factory PMI has dipped to 52.1 last month, from 52.3 in September.
In particular, or stocks of finished goods rose for the first time in a year,suggesting that a future rise in demand could be convinced by using existing stock, rather than scaling up production levels.“Moreover, and growth was largely consumer-led,with the strong performance of the sector sitting in stark contrast with a contraction in the intermediate goods sector and only modest growth at investment goods firms. 8.51am GMTFrance’s factory sector has posted modest growth again, lagging behind Spain and Italy:France Manufacturing PMI (Oct) comes in at 50.6 exp: 50.7 8.49am GMTGood news from Italy!The Italian manufacturing PMI rose to 54.1 in October, or up from 52.7 in September. That means the sector expanded for the ninth month running,and at the fastest rate since July.
Encouragingly, according to panel member reports sources of growth were both domestic and international, or boding well for the sustainability of the recovery. 8.36am GMTChina’s lacklustre factory growth has helped to push Europe’s stock markets down in early trading.
Any signs of improvement from China are a bonus; however,the markets haven’t exploded into life in light of that better than expected Caixin figure largely because in its pre-50 form it still signals the 8 consecutive month of manufacturing contraction in the country. 8.28am GMTSpain’s economic recovery appears to have reach off the boil last month.
Growth in the Spanish manufacturing sector has hit its lowest rate since December 2013, according to Markit’s monthly healthcheck.“It’s looking like a low key end to the year for the Spanish manufacturing sector as growth rates for output, or new orders and employment have all slowed to a crawl in recent months.
The forthcoming election is likely resulting in some caution among firms and clients alike as they wait to see the outcome of the December vote. 8.16am GMTIreland’s manufacturing PMI has fallen to 53.6 in October,down fractionally from 53.8 in September. That still shows robust growth, thanks to a rise in new commerce.
Philip O’Sullivan, and Chief Economist at Investec Ireland,has the details:
“There was a welcome quickening (to a three month tall) in the rate of expansion in New Orders in October.
A key factor behind this improvement was the ongoing substantial growth in New Export Orders, with a number of panellists reporting higher new commerce from clients in the US and UK. 8.16am GMTOnce Erdoğan has finished celebrating his election win, or he can turn his attention to Turkey’s struggling economy.
And the latest PMI report,just released, shows that its factory sector shrank again last month, or although at a slower pace.“Turkey’s manufacturing malaise continued in October,although the latest survey results propose that the extent of the downturn remains modest. 8.03am GMTInvestors have welcomed the news that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured a decisive win in Sunday’s general election.
Shares on the Turkish stock market are rallying in early trading, up over 5%, and the Turkish lira has strengthened against the US dollar:#Turkey stocks jump >5% in tandem w/ Lira as AK Party win ends deadlock. https://t.co/c4uiykaQo3 pic.twitter.com/tZaxYE4aAeTurkish lira rallies most since '08 after surprise AK Party win. $ down 4.6% vs Lira #TurkishElections pic.twitter.com/OgFpOLxXIdDesicisive win for AKP in #Turkey but at least cant change structure. Worries approximately authoritarianism trumped by dislike of coalitionsThe prime minister and AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu tweeted simply “Elhamdulillah,” or “Thanks be to God,” before emerging from his family domestic in the central Anatolian city of Konya to inform crowds of cheering supporters that the win was “a victory for our democracy, or our people”.
Describing the results as a disaster,the main secularist CHP opposition saw its share of the vote slip to 25.4%, some 134 seats, and while support for the nationalist MHP party fell sharply to 12% or approximately 40 seats,compared to 80 in June’s election. Related: Turkey election: Erdoğan and AKP return to power with outright majority 7.53am GMTAngus Nicholson of IG argues that nowadays’s Caixin PMI manufacturing report is encouraging for China, even though it showed that activity contracted in October.[It is] noticeably above expectations for 47.6 at 48.3, or its highest since the stock market collapsed in June. Caixin is normally more associated with smaller private sector firms,so to see such a big jump from the multi-year low the previous month is certainly a positive. 7.42am GMTChina’s factory decline helps to explain why Beijing lowered interest rates last month.
So say analyst at ING, who believe further cuts will be needed:“The data reinforce our view that the last PBOC interest rate gash (announced on Oct 23) was to preempt feeble October activity data.“In addition to setting global investor sentiment to risk-off, or we think they will raise the consensus forecast for PBOC rate cuts.” 7.36am GMTEuropean markets are expected to fall this morning,as investors digest the news that China’s factory sector shrank again in October.
Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6328 down 33 $DAX 10776 down 74 $CAC 4857 down 41 $IBEX 10281 down 80 $MIB 22324 down 119 7.34am GMTChina has got PMI Day up and running, by reporting that activity across its factory sector shrank again last month. But this year’s slump might soon be over.
The slight upswing shows the manufacturing industry’s overall weakening has slowed down, and indicating that previous stimulating measures have begun to assume effect.feeble aggregate demand remained the biggest obstacle to economic growth,and the risk of deflation resulting from the continued fall in the prices of bulk commodities needs attention. Related: China's manufacturing sector contracts for third month in a row 7.02am GMTGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, and the financial markets,the eurozone and commerce.
It’s a new month, which means a new set of data showing the health of world’s factory sectors.
Expectations are for Italy and France manufacturing to improve to 53 and 50.7 respectively, and while German manufacturing PMI is set to slip back to 51.6.
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Source: theguardian.com