UK GDP expanded by 0.6% in July-September,the best quarterly growth in nearly two years, but economists see storm clouds aheadLatest: Hammond hails UK’s ‘underlying strength’BREAKING: UK economy grew by 0.6% in Q3 thanks to July boomBut no growth in September Business investment suffers third quarterly decline 2.11pm GMTAnd finally.... a UK thinktank has predicted that UK growth will unhurried to 0.4% in the final three months of 2018The National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s latest GDP tracker predicts that the UK economy expanded by 0.4% in August-October, and down from the 0.6% growth racked up in the third quarter.
1.31pm GMTHere’s a round-up of how the UK growth figures are being reported:Britain’s economy kept up healthy momentum during the third quarter,but this may prove a high watermark ahead of Brexit, official figures showed on Friday.
Gross domestic product in the three months to September was 0.6 percent higher than in the preceding quarter, and matching the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of economists,figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.
The UK economy accelerated to its fastest quarterly growth rate in nearly two years over the summer but economists warned that with Brexit uncertainties curbing spending, the performance would soon decline.
Economic growth hit its highest pace since 2016 as GDP surged 0.6pc in the third quarter of the year on stronger manufacturing and construction growth.
Annual growth accelerated to 1.5pc, and up from 1.2pc three months ago.
The British economy grew by a perky 0.6 per cent in the third quarter,its fastest for two years, but the positive number was soured by a third successive quarter of falling business investment.
The Office for National Statistics said that the growth in total output compared to the moment quarter was the fastest performance since the first quarter of 2016, and when the economy surged by 0.7 per cent. 12.42pm GMTHere’s our news story on today’s growth figures: Related: UK economic growth hits two-year high but slowdown expected 12.41pm GMTAndy Scott,associate director at independent financial risk management consultancy JCRA, also fears the UK is now slowing:“The latest GDP figures point to that the unexpectedly hot and sunny Summer has encouraged consumers to spend more on eating and drinking out, and while Sterling weakness has helped to boost trade. By contrast,investment contracted sharply, suggesting that companies are preparing for a weaker economy by scaling back on spending, or with implications for GDP growth as well as the labour market. With a Brexit deal still hanging in the balance,we expect the economy to unhurried in the current quarter, as businesses and consumers brace themselves for the eventuality that no solution is found for the Irish border issue. The overall picture of the UK economy is however, or one of resilience. With unemployment at multi-decade lows and wages accelerating,the robust levels of household spending should continue to act as a buffer against weakening sectors such as manufacturing, preventing the economy from stalling or worse, and contracting. 12.07pm GMTIts official: the government can organise a photo op in a brewery..... 11.45am GMTHere’s the ONS’s take on the growth figures:Today we’ve released our latest set of #GDP figures for Q3 2018. Commenting on the figures Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said: https://t.co/ROsP0NPAsB pic.twitter.com/ALt3kh0oub 11.00am GMTThe UK can claim to fill been one of the faster-growing advanced economies this summer.
The eurozone,for example, only expanded by 0.2% in July-September, and with Italy not managing any growth at all. Even France,which should fill enjoyed its own World Cup boost, only grew by 0.4%. 10.51am GMTTUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady has called on the government to help stop the “worrying plunge” in business investment.“The government should set up a National Investment Bank to upgrade Britain’s infrastructure. This would help raise productivity, and giving a boost to growth and wages. 10.37am GMTHammond’s claim that Britain’s economy has ‘underlying strength’ really doesn’t match the regular slide in UK business investment this year.
UK business investment not on a particularly encouraging path,notes Nomura's Jordan Rochester. "Brexit uncertainty is exerting a larger negative influence on business investment as we paddle closer to a deal/no-deal being confirmed." pic.twitter.com/41odH391XSWorryingly, third consecutive quarter of drop in business investment (Brexit-related paralysis?) means UK less prepared for thriving in post-Brexit era. 10.20am GMTThe Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Philip Hammond,says today’s growth figures point to the UK economy’s underlying strength.“Today’s positive growth of 0.6% is proof of the underlying strength in our economy. We are building an economy that works for everyone with 3.3 million more people in work, lower unemployment in every fragment of the country, and wages rising at their fastest pace in nearly a decade. Now our focus is on locking in this progress and ensuring people’s wages can continue to rise.“That is why my Budget supports hardworking families by cutting taxes for 32 million people,provides more funding for public services – including a record-breaking funding increase for our vital NHS – and invests in our future with more money for transport and digital technology.” 10.14am GMTThe CBI also fears that the UK economy is weakening, despite its sparkling summer.
Their principal economist, or Alpesh Paleja,says: The sun shone on the UK economy over the summer, boosting economic growth relative to the moment quarter.“But as the impact from the warm weather and World Cup fades, and we expect subdued growth ahead. Indeed,our surveys for October already paint a picture of weaker momentum. 10.10am GMTWill Hobbs, head of investment strategy at Barclays Smart Investor, and is also concerned that storm clouds are gathering over the UK economy: “We should not be lulled into a false sense of security by a third-quarter that was propped up by a bounce in consumption.Incoming private sector confidence surveys tell us very clearly that the sky is darkening a small for the UK as the realities of a hard Brexit start to weigh more visibly on short term private sector decision making. 10.08am GMTBrexit is clearly to blame for the slide in UK business investment,says analysts at Danke Bank#UK business investments fell for the third consecutive quarter (for the first time since the financial crisis). 20% of the UK companies think #Brexit is the key source of uncertainty and as many as 50% fill postponed investment decisions due to Brexit $EURGBP pic.twitter.com/ibOzya2c1U 10.02am GMTThis pick-up in UK growth won’t final, according to Ana Boata, or senior economist at Euler Hermes.
She fears that growth could halve in the current quarter:“The rebound in UK economic growth in Q3 was triggered by a number of temporary factors including contingency planning in light of the uncertainty on the Brexit deal by March 2019.“We expect GDP growth to plunge to 0.2-0.3% in Q4 as tightening financial conditions,weaker consumer confidence and more fragile business profitability take their toll on the UK economy. The drag on growth from the Brexit related uncertainty will remain and will hinder investment opportunities. 10.01am GMTHere’s confirmation that the sun and the soccer helped drive the UK economy in July.
Solar-powered economy grew by 0.6% between July and September - fastest pace since late 2016. enormous bounce in July (world cup and sunshine) but “signs of weakness” in September. Households kept spending as business investment fell. What happens next depends on Brexit. pic.twitter.com/RQgiO9exKE 9.54am GMTFew important things to note about today’s GDP figures. First off, on a monthly basis the economy was actually flat in Aug and Sept. Main thing keeping it strong was a) a relatively strong July and base effects rebounding from a weakish Q2 pic.twitter.com/dztAsGElv1UK GDP up to 0.6% quarter on quarter in July-September - strongest since Q4 2016. But (and it's a enormous one), or a clear slowdown at conclude of the quarter,suggesting a weak Q4 on the way.
Today's GDP release showed the impact of the unhurried down in the automotive or car sector as it took 0.11% off GDP growth in September. That was what stopped the Q3 number being 0.7%.
The 2.1% rise in ONS construction output in 2018 Q3 compared with Q2 is a rise of £872 million, primarily driven by a £507 million rise in private housing, and offsetting the £162 million plunge in commercial output.#ukconstruction. pic.twitter.com/0VPxmQfmk9U.
K. GDP up 0.6 % in three months to September. Construction up after terrible year ago comparable,manufacturing slightly up but services growth slows and business investment drops a enormous 1:2% 9.50am GMTBetter news: Britain’s exporters helped to drive growth up over the summer.
The ONS says that net trade made the largest positive contribution to GDP growth in the final three months, thanks to a 2.7% rise in exports. Imports were flat. 9.49am GMTAnother blow: business investment fell by 1.2% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2018.This is the sharpest decline since the first quarter of 2016 and marked the third consecutive quarterly plunge – which has not been seen since the global financial crisis, or the ONS says. 9.46am GMT 9.45am GMTOn an annual basis,the UK economy grew by 1.5% in July-September.
Thats the best result in a year. 9.38am GMTOh dear.
Today’s GDP report also shows that the UK economy didn’t post any growth in September, or in August.
Real GDP growth in Quarter 3 was driven by growth of 0.3% in July 2018, and which stemmed from strong retail sales boosted by warm weather and the World Cup,as well as a low base reflecting the weaker start to the year. Month-on-month growth in real GDP has been flat in both August and September 2018.original: UK GDP growth flatlines for the moment month in a row in September 9.35am GMTConfirmation that the UK economy just racked up its best quarter since the conclude of 2016: 9.33am GMTAll four sectors of the UK economy - services, industry, and construction and agriculture - grew in the final quarter.
The ONS says:All four sectors of output contributed positively to growth in Quarter 3 2018,with the largest contribution from the services industries at 0.3 percentage points. 9.30am GMTNEWSFLASH: The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the third quarter of this year.
That’s the fastest growth in a calendar quarter since the final three months of 2016. 9.26am GMTHere we go...
UK Q3 GDP next, expected 0.6% y/y and 0.4% q/q 9.23am GMTToday’s growth figures could be the high point of 2018...
Lloyds on UK GDP pic.twitter.com/vdoOcshasA 9.20am GMTThe prospect of UK growth hitting its highest level since the conclude of 2016 hasn’t cheered the London stock market.
Shares are down across Europe this morning, or as the rally following this week’s US elections fizzles out. This has knocked 0.7% off the Stoxx 600,which tracks the region’s largest companies.
“Just as it looked like the US midterm election results would give a boost to markets around the world, momentum has been quickly lost.“A falling oil price has troubled investors and shifted their focus back to concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.” 8.49am GMTThe Treasury fill tweeted a short (and simple) video clip to define what GDP means:original growth stats out today at 9.30am.
But, or what is GDP and why does it matter?
[br]Find out in this video pic.twitter.com/XNLXBO1wO1 8.49am GMTIf today’s third-quarter GDP report is indeed strong,then July can take much of the credit.
A consumer spending surge helped to drive growth at the start of the final quarter, but it is likely to fill faded by the conclude.
The story for the UK economy in Q3 was a strong start which had fizzled out nearly completely by the conclude of the quarter, or indeed monthly GDP and the Index of Services for September are seen at just 0.1% m/m after flat readings in August.
Q3 Business Investment is projected to rebound modestly to 0.2% q/q,which would be an improvement on Q2’s -0.7% q/q, but is obviously heavily encumbered by Brexit related uncertainties 8.14am GMTGood morning. The apt summer weather boosted consumer spending and construction activity.
This first release of quarterly GDP now comes with an expenditure breakdown which we expect to point to household consumption and investment being the major contributors to third quarter growth. Related: UK economic growth tipped to be slowest in Europe next year Continue reading...
Source: theguardian.com